There are two teams that are playing the best football in the WVIAC right now. It's a guarantee that one of them won't be in the playoffs, and it would probably take more upsets than can reasonably be expected to happen for the other to get in either.

You weren't expecting me to say that the two best teams were facing off in the de facto WVIAC championship game, did you?

Oh, there's no doubt that West Virginia Wesleyan's trip to Athens, West Virginia is Game of the Week material, and I'll be there to see it and liveblog it in person. But right now, the best team in the WVIAC won't be in Athens this weekend.

They'll be on the road in Fairmont instead. Yes, right now, the Shepherd Rams look like more of a contender than any other team in the WVIAC. For possibly the first time all year, they finally took charge of a game in the first half instead of waiting until halftime to regroup and take over. The defense had some shaky moments in the first quarter but largely shut down Glenville State's offense in the second half.

Who else is hot? How about a team that I had pretty much given up for dead around midseason: the University of Charleston. I won't lie: I'm still not a big fan of how one-dimensional their offense continues to be, but right now, I also can't say enough about Jordan Roberts, who was expected to be good before the season started. What's getting them wins now, though, is their defense. LB Aaron Dunlap has led Charleston's defense in the last few weeks while a pair of underclassmen have taken charge in the backfield: freshman Trei Kelly and sophomore Hassan Coleman.

Charleston can finish 5-1 in their final six games with a win at rival West Virginia State this weekend. Given the way things looked early on, 5-6 is a good start to the rebuilding project going on at the University of Charleston.


Regional Rankings

After this Saturday's games are over, I'll post my final predictions for who's in and who's out of the playoffs, focusing on Super Region 1 but giving some attention to all four super regions. But first let's answer this question that I've heard multiple times this week:

How does Shepherd win but stay at #10 in the regional rankings while three teams ahead of them all lose?

First off, a quick review of the standings, along with the teams' Division II records, opponents' average winning percentage (OAWP), and opponents' opponents' average winning percentage (OOAWP):

1. New Haven (9-0, 0.5434, 0.5013)
2. Winston-Salem State (9-0, 0.4938, 0.4801)
3. Elizabeth City State (8-2, 0.5117, 0.4975)
4. California (8-2, 0.5083, 0.5017)
5. Kutztown (9-1, 0.3990, 0.5217)
6. Bloomsburg (8-2, 0.5042, 0.5170)
7. West Virginia Wesleyan (9-1, 0.3972, 0.5030)
8. Southern Connecticut State (7-1, 0.4380, 0.5099)
9. Slippery Rock (8-2, 0.4139, 0.5155)
10. Shepherd (8-2, 0.4075, 0.4945)
NR. Concord (6-2, 0.4348, 0.5116)

New Haven at #1 and Winston-Salem State at #2 make sense. Elizabeth City State's two losses were to two undefeated teams (against D-II competition): national #1 Delta State and Winston-Salem State. And as you can see, their strength of schedule is better than any of the other two-loss teams.

As you can see, in large part, the rankings follow down based on strength of schedule (SOS). West Virginia Wesleyan's SOS is worse than any of the rest of the top 10 (and Concord). Shepherd's is only better than the Bobcats' and Kutztown's, but with Kutztown sitting at 9-1 and playing against an 8-2 Slippery Rock team in the PSAC championship this weekend, even with a loss, it doesn't look good for Shepherd to surpass Kutztown.

Head-to-head results often play a role in determining the rankings. Here, California is actually well ahead of Slippery Rock, a team who beat the Vulcans head-to-head. But the Rock's SOS numbers don't give them reason to be ahead of other teams like Bloomsburg and Kutztown. So, I'm assuming they didn't use that head-to-head comparison (which will often come into play only among teams ranked close together to begin with).

So, what does Shepherd need in order to get in? A lot of help. And earned access isn't part of that. Earned access only applies when a conference's top team (in the regional rankings, not conference record) is ranked in the top eight. In that case, should they be #7 or #8, that team gets in and bumps out the lowest "bumpable" team. But Shepherd, even at 9-2, likely won't be in that position. If West Virginia Wesleyan wins, they'll be 10-1 and would be the top WVIAC team. If Concord wins, they will own wins head-to-head over West Virginia Wesleyan and Shepherd and could actually leapfrog everyone into the #8 spot.

The short answer is that Shepherd needs a lot of help to get in. How much? This is what I think they would need:

1. West Virginia Wesleyan needs to beat Concord. A Concord win adds obstacles to Shepherd's path, which isn't what they need. They need four teams ahead of them to fall behind them. A Concord win won't help that.
2. Southern Connecticut State needs to lose to Merrimack.
3. Slippery Rock needs to lose to Kutztown.
4. Elizabeth City State needs to lose to Winston-Salem State. An ECSU win would probably mean two CIAA teams in the playoffs.
5. Finally, a giant upset needs to happen: either Cheyney (1-9 on the year) needs to upset California or Lock Haven (0-10 and riding a LONG losing streak) needs to somehow beat Bloomsburg. Sorry, but I don't think either of these can realistically happen.

Again, I'll add my final predictions after Saturday's games are all over.

Since I've gone so long, I'll keep most of the previews short.

Shepherd (8-2, 5-2) at Fairmont State (7-3, 4-3)

Fairmont State needed a fourth quarter comeback and a defensive stop to hold off West Virginia State, something I definitely did not expect. The pass defense struggled, including the defensive line, against a Yellow Jacket offensive line that has had some troubles all season long.

Shepherd's defensive line, particularly Howard Jones, will not let the Falcons run on them successfully. That puts more pressure on quarterback Logan Moore, who has not looked as strong in recent games. Shepherd has shown they've bounced back from earlier injuries and setbacks and are ready to take control of this game.

Prediction: Shepherd 38, Fairmont State 13

Glenville State (4-6, 4-3) at Seton Hill (1-9, 1-6)

Yes, the Pioneers have been inconsistent this year, but it's hard to complain too much about the losses they've had this year: Carson-Newman (whose veer offense is difficult to prepare for), UNC Pembroke (a potential playoff team until losing to Winston-Salem State last week), North Alabama (a playoff team), West Virginia Wesleyan, Shepherd, and a suddenly-hot Charleston team. In my mind, things are going in the right direction under David Hutchison.

Seton Hill, on the other hand, isn't showing signs of excitement and revitalization. What has often happened to the Griffins this season is that they've given up a big play or made a mistake and let that compound into several in a row that produce a hole that's too big for them to climb out of. There just isn't energy in Greensburg, and that starts at the top. Maybe it's time for some changes to be made at Seton Hill.

Prediction: Glenville State 37, Seton Hill 17

West Liberty (1-9) at UNC Pembroke (7-3)

Let's just go ahead and say it: the reloading project from Central Florida failed at West Liberty this year. L.D. Crow wasn't the hoped-for replacement for Zach Amedro, the running game hasn't come together, the offensive line has been a mess, and special teams have been a disaster. Coach Waialae needs to focus his efforts on building the program back up rather than looking for a quick fix next year.

UNC Pembroke's defense allowing 34 points to Winston-Salem State isn't all that surprising. But only seven points on offense from the Braves is. Travis Daniels is still the key to this offense, and he'll have to be the man the Hilltoppers stop if they have any chance of winning. I don't see that happening.

Prediction: UNC Pembroke 45, West Liberty 14

Charleston (4-6, 4-3) at West Virginia State (1-8, 1-6)

Several weeks ago, I thought this would be a close, competitive game between two teams struggling to rebuild for the future. The future has come a lot sooner for Charleston, who notched six sacks and five interceptions in their upset at home of West Virginia Wesleyan.

So how much will Charleston's defense make West Virginia State quarterback Ricky Phillips' life difficult on Saturday? Very much, I think. The Yellow Jackets' offensive line isn't as good as West Virginia Wesleyan's, and the running game also has not come together consistently for them either. Add in Jordan Roberts, whom the Yellow Jackets don't have an answer for, and it doesn't look good for the home team.

Prediction: Charleston 41, West Virginia State 21

Game of the Week (and de facto conference championship)
West Virginia Wesleyan (9-1, 6-1) at Concord (6-3, 6-1)

For two teams playing for the conference title, there sure are a lot of potential problems.

West Virginia Wesleyan's running game was okay, at least by their standards, last week. But it's typically diverse offenses that are successful in tough games and one-and-done playoffs. So Keith Dickens needs to break out...and soon. The defense needs to be able to stop the run too, which they failed terribly at doing at Charleston last week.

Concord, meanwhile, has taken the idea that defense wins championships to an extreme. In the last four games, the Mountain Lions have managed only five offensive touchdowns in the last four games combined. Yes, Concord has forced a huge number of turnovers, but when those turnovers aren't turning into points (or when those points are coming too often from the defense), those turnovers may not be of quite so much value.

Here are three things to watch for in this game:

1. Brian Kennedy. The Concord runningback has the potential to have a big day against a defense that gave up a conference player-of-the-week caliber performance to Jordan Roberts last week. Kennedy has breakout potential, but it hasn't come out yet. He has just one more game to make himself shine. Can he do it? If he can, Concord's chances to win are awfully good.

2. Concord's defense: pick your poison. How will defensive-minded head coach Garin Justice use his linebackers in this game? Will he have them blitz more often to pressure Adam Neugebauer, who was sacked six times last week? Or will Jake Lilly and Joe Greenway drop back into seven or even eight man coverage to try to rack up five interceptions like the Bobcats suffered last week? And how will West Virginia Wesleyan head coach Jonas Jackson respond to Concord's defensive play calling? This will be a great chess match to watch.

3. Will special teams make the difference? If it's a close game, it's certainly possible. But Concord's special teams haven't been anything to get excited about all season. West Virginia Wesleyan's special teams have been a little better: kicker Phillip Warner has had some good games, but they haven't happened regularly.

West Virginia Wesleyan has trounced weak opponents. But against fair to good teams, they've struggled. They needed overtime to beat Shepherd, had to come back to beat Glenville State, struggled against a Fairmont State team on its second string quarterback, lost to Charleston, and never put away a Lincoln team that really wasn't that good. Is there any reason to think the Bobcats will dominate in this one? Not in my mind. I don't think they're the favorites, but I like the Mountain Lions' chances to pull off the upset, and that could be enough to send Concord into the playoffs from out of nowhere. Maybe. (A little extra help, like what I mentioned Shepherd needs earlier, wouldn't hurt, of course.)

Prediction: Concord 30, West Virginia Wesleyan 28


Comments? Questions? Cheers? Jeers? Email me at [email protected], drop a comment down below, or send me your thoughts and questions on Twitter @Byko. And be sure to follow my liveblog from Athens starting just before the 1:00 pm kickoff on Saturday.