It's hard to believe we're at the midpoint of the regular season.

It's also hard to believe that there are only two teams in the conference that are over .500.

And it's even harder to believe that the WVIAC, in these times, could get two teams into the playoffs.

I know you're thinking I'm crazy, but let's think about this a bit. Shepherd is 4-1 right now, and it's possible that Glenville State (who comes to Shepherdstown this year) might be the only real hurdle left for the Rams that could keep them from a 9-1 season and a conference title. What about Charleston? Yes, they have to face Glenville State on the road, but I like the Golden Eagles' chances. The real test will be next week out of conference against UNC Pembroke. Win that one, and a 10-1 record with just a loss to Shepherd is very possible.

Charleston fans probably aren't going to like me talking like this and potentially getting their hopes up. After all, the sting of going undefeated late ino the season only to finish 1-2 down the stretch and fall out of the playoff picture may still be fresh. And as long as Shepherd wins out, they will be ahead of Charleston based on the head-to-head win, make no mistake about that. I haven't run any numbers (there are WAY too many possibilities and my 10+ year old computer may not be able to handle all of them), but I'd hate to see a scenario where a 10-1 Charleston team gets left at home. Yes, Winston-Salem State is on track to rule the CIAA. Yes, New Haven is on track to dominate the Northeast-10. And yes, the PSAC will easily get at least two teams in (though after West Chester's win over a California team that, when I watched them play Edinboro, looked really overrated), those two teams may well be Shippensburg and West Chester. So where would team #6 come from? Would you rather have a projected twice-beaten Bentley from the Northeast-10 with no quality wins, a third PSAC team who may be a conference championship game loser from the western division (and would also have at least two losses), or a 10-1 team who would have beaten a playoff contender (maybe even playoff team) in UNC Pembroke on the road and whose only loss came close against the conference champion?

Yes, I'm getting a little ahead of myself, but in these strange and changing times, the fact of the rest of the WVIAC being down may actually, in a strange way, help the conference get two teams into the playoffs. We're still a long ways off from that, but in the meantime, stay tuned to the possibility.


Seton Hill (0-5, 0-3) at Charleston (4-1, 2-1)

The good news for the Griffins is that they managed positive rushing yardage last week against West Virginia State. The bad news is that wasn't enough against a Yellow Jacket team who found the end zone twice in the fourth quarter to lock up a 21-13 road win. It was a better defensive performance by Seton Hill than we've seen most of the season, but frankly, that was one of the Griffins' best chances at a win this year, and they simply did not finish. That's a big indicator of the kind of team Seton Hill is right now: a team that doesn't yet know how to win (keep that in mind for one of the other matchups this week).

Charleston, meanwhile, cruised to a 30-10 win over Fairmont State last week. The Falcons' offense didn't find the end zone, and even though Daniel Monroe was (thankfully) back for Fairmont State and had a good day, it was nothing compared to Jordan Roberts and John Knox. Charleston's offense is in a groove, and their defense is far better than what West Virginia State could put out on the field last week. Seton Hill will score, thanks to the solid arm of Ryan Morris, but they won't score often.

Prediction: Charleston 35, Seton Hill 10


West Virginia Wesleyan (2-3, 1-1) at Shepherd (4-1, 3-0)

Yes, the Bobcats are on a winning streak right now. But it's worth adding that those games both came at home, where West Virginia Wesleyan has played far better this year. The Bobcats kept things close at home against a still-undefeated Bentley team as well but were trounced at a Millersville team that has looked dreadful since opening week and at an offensively inconsistent West Liberty team in week 3. Nate Montana's arm has been the savior for the Bobcats, as Malcolm Yowk is doing his best on the ground but his best just isn't good enough to make the running game a threat. The pass defense still is lacking, and Urbana was able to throw plenty, especially in the second half, and make a game of it despite the Bobcats opening with a 20-0 lead.

But Shepherd's defense will be very different. Sure, the front four are the best defensive line in the conference right now, bar none, but the secondary made some plays last week. Against an inexperienced Albert Rose from Concord, Keon Robinson and D.J. Scott made big time interceptions, particularly in the fourth quarter to keep the Mountain Lions from mounting a comeback. Yes, the coverage could be better, but this is progress from what I saw in the second half against Shippensburg in the opening week. Add in the fact that Bobby Cooper is a LOT more mobile than he was at the beginning of the season, and this could be somewhat of a breakout week for the Shepherd offense. Even though Concord's offense is down, their defense is not, so there's no good reason for Ram fans to be worried about only a 20-6 win last week. The Bobcats' defense is not at Concord's level, and after losing in Buckhannon in overtime last year, Shepherd is out to prove something this week.

Prediction: Shepherd 38, West Virginia Wesleyan 19


West Liberty (2-3, 1-2) at West Virginia State (2-3, 1-1)

Two and three years ago, it was Zach Amedro doing it on offense for the Hilltoppers, whose defense was just good enough to keep opponents from winning most of the time. Now, it's the defense that's stepping up while the offense struggles mightily, averaging just 16.8 points per game (exclude the 33-16 win over West Virginia Wesleyan and it's down to 12.75). Nobody really predicted that West Liberty would be able to hold Glenville State to just 17 points last week, and the stats didn't look like that would happen either. But five interceptions have a way of making things much more interesting. With L.D. Crow leaving the game and not projected to start this week because of injury, look for more of Dylan Lagarde at quarterback, which means there will be some highlights but also some rookie mistakes. Like with Seton Hill, this is a team that is still try to learn how to win, and the way that happens is usually by suffering several close losses.

West Virginia State's offense is something I'm still trying to figure out, but I know this much: it's not very deep. Ricky Phillips will throw for at least 200 yards. Aubura Taylor will probably be the leading rusher, though if last week was any indication, he's lost a little bit since the beginning of the season. Ervin Kent will be Phillips' main target every time there's a passing play. And that's about all I can really say. There just isn't the depth and conditioning on this Yellow Jacket squad to be able to compete week after week. West Virginia State is starting to show they're committed to improving their facilities (and, as a result, their program) with investments they've made into building a new fieldhouse right by Lakin Field. That doesn't change the story right now, though: this is still a tired team that will struggle against opponents who can play defense. I do think this one will stay close, but I'm not expecting too many points in this one.

Prediction: West Liberty 24, West Virginia State 20


Game of the Week
Glenville State (2-3, 2-0) at Concord (2-3, 1-2)

For all that I said about Charleston and Shepherd, the fact is that Glenville State is still undefeated in conference play and could easily stay that way heading into the last weekend of October with home tilts against West Virginia State and West Virginia Wesleyan coming up. But after how the Pioneers struggled against a surprisingly good West Liberty defense, how will they fare against a Concord defense that is almost certainly better? Carson-Newman hasn't shown much of a defense this season, nor has Fairmont State. And blowing the late lead at Lindenwood could have effects throughout the entire season. There's no doubt that Glenville State CAN succeed, but the Pioneers have historically lost games where they had more talent than their opponent (I know: I covered it when a far more talented Glenville State lost to a brand new Lake Erie team when I covered the independents back in 2008). The defense has gotten better for the Pioneers, though, which is what makes this game particularly interesting.

Concord's six points last week came, plain and simple, on Shepherd's one big misplay on defense last week. Albert Rose found his target, hit it, and got a break when the coverage pretty much lost any idea of where the football was. That was it. Rose is, for a freshman, pretty good and has potential, but he needs to look to more than just two targets in Ansel Ponder and Randall Hawkins, and he needs experience making good decisions late in close games. Both of those things will come in time. Meanwhile, the offensive line was just outmatched against Shepherd; Calvinaugh Jones had a bad day on the ground because Shepherd's defense is that good. Concord is a team that is clearly preparing for the future and is going to be a threat in the conference title hunt in the next couple of years. For now, they're a team that's staying competitive thanks to their defense. Good defense was a problem for Glenville State last weekend, and facing players like Jake Lilly and Riyahd Richardson, they'll have an even harder time this week. Don't look for a lot of points on the scoreboard here.

Prediction: Concord 17, Glenville State 14


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