Normally, I might throw in some comments about the other eight WVIAC teams that are sitting at home watching the playoffs in this space, or maybe something about the playoff selections and where I disagree. If you read my last column, you know where I stand there: the Super Region 1 committee had an easy job and did exactly as all of us expected. Kudos to them: compared to other super regions, they've been pretty reliable the last few years, and whether you like the criteria they have to work with or not, they've at least very clearly acted by it. That predictability is a good thing.

Everything else can wait for a final season wrap-up where I still don't everything that I'll say. It's been a wild ride in what we're all expecting to be the "last rodeo" of WVIAC football (I'll confess: yes, I went to one of Brooks and Dunn's final concerts on tour despite not being a country music guy, and I even liked it). But that can all wait. We're here for one reason only:

#6 Shepherd Rams (8-2) at #3 IUP Crimson Hawks (10-1)
Kickoff: 12 pm
Live Stats: http://www.sidearmstats.com/iup/foot...coreboard.aspx
IUP Audio: mms://mms.nauticom.net/www-redzonemedia-com-7
Shepherd Audio (I really hope this works) is linked from http://www.talkradiowrnr.com
Live Video: http://nmtvsports.com/main.php?modul...&eventId=26894

First off, a semi-personal note. I know some of you have enjoyed the liveblogs I have done throughout the season (as have I). However, per NCAA regulations, there will not be a liveblog for this game, as I did not pursue broadcasting rights (as usual) or wish to pay the associated fees that would allow me the privilege of liveblogging. I may tweet score updates (and as always, you can follow me on Twitter @Byko) occasionally, but that will be all you'll hear from me during the game...unless you listen to the Shepherd pre-game show on WRNR.

This game may more accurately be described as #1 versus #2...in terms of rushing defenses. Shepherd hasn't given up 100 yards on the ground to a single opponent all year. Granted, the WVIAC isn't known for its ground attacks, but still, not to allow 100 yards to a single TEAM is pretty impressive. That would include a pretty good American International squad that ran for over 250 yards per game on average all season. Why is this the case? Why does Shepherd have the top run defense in the country? Let's start with Howard Jones, an outstanding defensive end, though don't overlook Tim Durrant at the other defensive end position. Throw in strong linebackers like A.J. Parrish and Bryan Blue, who was more than just a sudden starter in the West Liberty game, as well as De'Ontre Johnson, Dominique Dixon and Dominic Tolson, and you have a real wrecking crew in Shepherd's 4-4 defensive scheme. It isn't as though the WVIAC is THAT bad at running the football. Fairmont State's Daniel Monroe had close to 80 yards per game this season, a total that was lowered because of early season injuries and recovering from last season's foot injury, but he had just 6 against Shepherd. Charleston's Jordan Roberts, easily the best runningback in the conference at 1572 yards (142.91 per game) on the ground had only 20 yards on 12 carries against Shepherd. Sure, you can say Roberts was feeling ill that day (as I've heard multiple times), but still, it's 20 yards on 12 carries for the best RB in the conference and someone who, I think, should have at least made it to the final 24 of Harlon Hill Trophy voting. But that's for another column.

Here's the rub when it comes to Shepherd's vaunted defense, though: the pass defense, especially in the defensive secondary, hasn't been what it was two years ago. DB Keon Robinson simply is not playing at the same level as he was two years ago when Shepherd gave Delta State a good game in the national semifinals down in Cleveland, Mississippi. CB D.J. Scott has had his moments, but too often, he's tried to be the hero and ended up giving up the big play instead, as he did right from the start of the season against Shippensburg in a 38-28 loss. FS David Carter has had his ups and downs too. Quite frankly, some very mediocre quarterbacks have had pretty good days against this Shepherd pass defense:

West Liberty QB Dylan Lagarde: 18-35 for 242 yards, 1 INT, 0 TD
Fairmont State QB Bobby Vega: 20-38 for 264 yards, 3 INT, 2 TD
Glenville State QB Justin Feagin (a 2nd stringer): 17-33 for 213 yards, 2 TD
West Virginia State QB Ricky Phillips: 20-33 for 233 yards, 1 INT, 2 TD
Seton Hill QB Ryan Morris: 29-46 for 227 yards, 1 INT, 1 TD

None of these are great quarterbacks, but they all put up what I'd generally consider to be at least good numbers. Let's look at the season numbers for IUP quarterback Mike Box:

83 completions on 145 attempts with just 2 interceptions and 10 touchdowns
Total yards: 1,292

Uh oh.

As for the Shepherd offense, yes, it definitely has been on much more of a roll lately. I was at the game against Glenville State, and finally, in week 10 of the season, I saw what I asked for after the Shippensburg loss, where I saw Cooper (and many other Rams) with their heads hanging when the Red Raiders took their first lead of the game in the second half and didn't look back. Bobby Cooper, in the final two minutes of the game against Glenville State, came out onto the field with energy, and he put the team on his back and led them down the field for the game-winning score, doing so almost too quickly (though Dominic Tolson's pick-six made up for any potential mistake that was). That was the drive that finally convinced me that yes, Shepherd could go into a playoff game and have a chance to win: too many other times, the Rams took the lead early and simply led wire-to-wire, but in the playoffs, that simply doesn't happen. The fact that Cooper has become a far more mobile quarterback that has been willing to roll out of the pocket and either throw OR tuck it and run has been a huge difference in the Shepherd offense.

Here's another progression over the course of the season: runningback. Early on, it was clear that Mike Haynes was not going to truly fill the shoes left by the graduation of Tommy Addison. In September, I expressed concern that Shepherd didn't have its stable of runningbacks that could be worked in at the spot like I had seen Monte Cater's teams do in years past. By November, again, my story had changed. Now there was a solid rotation of Haynes, Jihad Rasheed, and (possibly most impressive of all) Allen Cross at runningback for the Rams on the ground, and boy, what a difference it made down the stretch. Finally, Shepherd could actually have a healthy running game that it could use to set up the pass, which I feel, without a clear #1 wide receiver like I've seen at places like West Virginia State and Concord this year (or at Seton Hill or last year), wasn't so strong. Offensively, Shepherd doesn't really do anything fancy: they just work the fundamentals effectively and focus on those things every week of practice instead of trying to go for the new hotness in offensive gimmicks.

Still, here is my concern: can Shepherd's offense put enough points on the scoreboard to win? Let's look at the points allowed by IUP's defense all season:

6 to Southern Connecticut State
0 to Cheyney
0 to Lock Haven
26 to California
7 to Millersville
16 to Slippery Rock
10 to Edinboro
13 to Mercyhurst
0 to Clarion
35 to Gannon (!)
10 to Shippensburg (!!)

Considering that California actually had its starting quarterback Peter Lalich for that game against IUP (the only one the Crimson Hawks lost all year) and that Lalich threw for 438 yards (while the Vulcans only ran for 28), that tells me something. Then again, I'm not actually expecting Bobby Cooper to play like a Division I-FBS transfer in this game, so let's not look too deeply at that result.

Here's my question: what happened with Gannon and Shippensburg? With Ship, the story is pretty simple: Zach Zulli couldn't run at all, and in the second half, the deficit was so great that he pretty much had to throw every time, which made things even easier for the IUP defense. Against Gannon, it's a different story: despite finishing the year 3-8, the Golden Knights actually found a way to pick up yards on the ground (or at least, Jansen Jones did). With that, they then were able to make things easier for QB Liam Nadler, who only threw 26 passes all game (a far cry from the 42 that Zulli threw last week). Gannon took advantage of penalties (12 for 108 yards and 4 first downs against IUP) and actually ran more offensive plays than IUP did (64 to 60). Their offense kept IUP guessing all day long, and two late interceptions were what prevented Gannon from pulling off a huge upset that probably would have kept IUP at home and would have had me and the Rams going to Bloomsburg this weekend instead (and might have gotten Charleston in the playoffs, but again, that's for another column).

Enough about where IUP is vulnerable. Let's talk about what they do well, and that's run and play defense. Against Gannon and Shippensburg, star runningback Harvie Tuck barely played. No problem: they just put in De'Antwan Williams, who ran for a combined 255 yards and 2 touchdowns in those two games. Montay Green has been a dangerous third option at RB for the Crimson Hawks this season as well, so IUP could have their own three-headed monster at runningback that's more powerful than Shepherd's. I showed the numbers for Box earlier in the passing game, and here's what stands out to me: he just doesn't make mistakes. IUP doesn't look to him to win the football game, just not to lose it, and all season long, he hasn't (surprisingly, it was the defense that cost the Crimson Hawks against California in the final minute of the game). The defense is simply, in a word, opportunistic: they've managed 17 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries on the year, giving IUP a +18 cumulative turnover margin on the season (something close to what we saw two years ago from Shepherd on their run to the national semifinals). This isn't a defensive front that's relying on its linebackers to make the big plays, as you'll see:

DL Carl Thornton: 46 total tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks
DL Shane Meisner: 46 TT, 13 TFL, 5.5 sacks
DL Greg Meisner: 42 TT, 9 TFL, 3.5 sacks
DL Akeem Smith: 26 TT, 8 TFL, 3 sacks

These are the numbers you want to see on your defensive line, allowing your linebackers to generally stay at home and fill the gaps left by your front four. As for the passing game, Johnny Franco (6 INTs) and Marvens Toussaint (3 INTs) are the guys to pay the most attention to on the field, but quite frankly, everyone on IUP's defensive backfield is a turnover threat.

So what does Shepherd need to do in order to win? Here are my keys to victory:

1. To the defensive backs, don't try to be the hero. Your front eight have gotten you to this point, and right now, I wouldn't expect IUP to suddenly go five-wide on offense on every play: that's the kind of formation that's been giving the Shepherd defense trouble. Don't try to make the big interception every time; stay with your man and cover him. Scott, Carter, and Robinson are all capable of being good cover defensive backs and can wait for the right opportunity to try to play for the big play. Do it too early, and the odds are that you'll get burned.

2. On offense, don't be afraid to use the run to set up the pass. Even in conference games, some runningbacks have had success against this IUP defensive front. Mercyhurst's Brandon Brown-Dukes had 134 yards on the ground against IUP; the problem there was that he was nearly half of the team's offense himself. Haynes, Cross, and Rasheed all have their own strengths that are better together than they are separated. Even if it isn't working early, stick with that strategy to give Cooper opportunities as the game goes on.

3. Keep it close early. Shippensburg's biggest problem was that they got into a deep hole early in the game, and their offensive game plan became even more predictable. If Shepherd gets down more than 14 points in this game, the Rams may have to go to the air more often than they'd like, and IUP will definitely be ready for that.

4. Clean up special teams. This was a big issue that nearly cost the Rams against Glenville State. Blocking on kicks has not been good on the whole this year, especially in the second half of the season. In a playoff atmosphere, players need to be ready for a key punt or field goal fake at just about any time, especially in a close game. Curt Cignetti is a very good coach that might not be afraid to pull something out just before things get desperate if IUP is down.

5. Play the second half better than the first. In the past two seasons, I have said repeatedly that NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY, is better at making halftime adjustments in the WVIAC than Monte Cater. This season, I haven't seen that very much at all. This is a skilled and versatile IUP team without many weaknesses, and you can be sure they're going to turn it up after halftime, especially with an energetic home crowd behind them; Shepherd absolutely must do the same if they hope to be practicing on Thanksgiving day and playing at New Haven next Saturday.

There's no reason to think this game will be anything but a close, defensive-minded matchup, which is fitting for a cold November playoff day. IUP comes into this game with a lot of momentum, but we've heard this story before, and it worked out Shepherd's way in years past. I honestly hope I'm wrong, as I'd love to be making a trip up to the blue turf of Ralph F. Dellacamera Stadium next weekend, but as many of you all know, I'm a numbers guy at heart, and the numbers tell me the odds favor the home team.

Prediction: IUP 24, Shepherd 21


Again, feel free to comment here or email me at [email protected]. You can also follow me or hit me up during the game on Twitter @Byko.