Tweet
#10 Hillsdale (8-3) at #11 California (10-3)
In addition to being an intriguing match-up of two of the better programs in the country, this tilt is also garnering the distinction of being the first NCAA game anywhere in the land (including all divisions) to kick-off in 2012. While the 5:00 pm start offers a "jump" on everyone else in terms of beginning the season, both clubs want a jump on the rest of the country in terms of a fast start to the year with a win over a quality opponent.
There are some stark similarities to these two clubs. Cal was a PSAC Champ a year ago sharing the West Division title, while Hillsdale enters this season as the outright GLIAC Champion. Both clubs were sluggish in their 2011 openers, dropping those decisions and starting the season 0-1. Most importantly, key starters on offense are back to lead the 2012 teams.
For Cal, QB Peter Lalich returns after throwing for more than 286 yards per game in 2011. While top pass-catcher Thomas Mayo has departed, the Vulcans do have 1000-yard rusher Lamont Smith back to carry the load on the ground. Hillsdale's QB situation is also steady, as Anthony Mifsud will lead the offense that was at the top end of the GLIAC in time of possession and 3rd Down Conversion percentage a year ago. This possession-style game is a Hillsdale hallmark, and Mifsud kept it going for the Chargers by completing nearly 67% of his pass attempts. And of course, we can't talk about Hillsdale and their ability to possess the ball without mentioning Joe Glendening. The senior RB's 1600-yard campaign last year earned him GLIAC Player of the Year plaudits, and he likes to start fast. Case-in-point, he dropped a buck-53 on Ferris in last year's opener, and that was a game where the Charger O wasn't all that crisp. It's Joe the Show's last go-around, so look for him to come out firing Thursday night.
It will be interesting to see which team can get out of the blocks quickly. I'm a big fan of experience at QB, and both clubs possess this. Additionally, both defenses improved as 2011 progressed, so both D's should be ready to go. At this point, I'm looking for the experience of Hillsdale from top-to-bottom to be the difference. Cal has been a bit more "transfer-centric" of late and sometimes that lack of time together can be problematic...especially early in the year. While Cal gets the game at home, I'm going with Hillsdale's experience...and some of that experience includes the current taste in their mouths, which is that of a team that won its league outright last fall and yet didn't make the playoffs. Hillsdale 30, Cal 26.
Indianapolis (7-4) at Ashland (6-5)
For a team that just bolted from the GLIAC, UIndy sure couldn't wait to jump back in and play a league team! All kidding aside, this match-up has provided some exciting tilts in recent years, including last year's 39-36 affair that took four overtimes to decide. UIndy hasn't won in Ashland in their last four tries, but they like their chances to break that trend as they sport 2011's GLIAC Offensive Back of the Year in QB Chris Mills. The junior signal-caller was good for 271 yards per game via the air last season, including tossing 29 touchdown passes against only five interceptions. One of his favorite targets from last year is also back in Mar'Quone Edmonds, who hauled in nearly 1,000 yards and snared 14 TD grabs.
The 'Hounds will try and attack an Eagle defense that has steadily improved over the last couple of seasons, and they have needed to as the offense has sputtered at times, including only out-gaining their opponents a year ago by less than 100 total yards...for the entire season. QB Taylor Housewright is back for his senior campaign, and appears to be fully healthy for the first time in a while. If he can find a big-play receiver (the days of Livingston, Horn, Bellanco, and Long sure seem like a long time ago, don't they?) his production should see a major boost over last year. Additionally, look for sophomore RB Jordan McCune to build on his impressive first season as the primary ball carrier. McCune probably only has sufficient speed, but he makes up for that with a ton of power and the will to get that extra yard when a first down or the goal line is in question.
Anyone who has read my column over the years knows that I think predicting these games is akin to throwing every team's name in a hat and simply plucking one out. That, of course, gets exacerbated when it's the first week of the season. There are no real trends to view, no break-out stars to account for, etc. All that factors in here, as does Ashland's knack for doing things early in the season that have made me scratch my head (blowing a 21-point halftime lead against Bloomsburg in '08 comes to mind, as does their domination of the Huskies in '10 in Housewright's first collegiate start). So with all of that in mind, I'm left with my first coin-flip of the season...yep, second preview of the season and I'm already flipping! Heads Indy, Tails Ashland: Tails it is! Ashland 25, UIndy 23.
Walsh (5-6) at Kentucky Wesleyan (1-10)
Walsh tunes up for its opening game in the GLIAC with Kentucky Wesleyan. KWC has played Indianapolis to open each of the last four seasons, and was summarily pounded every time. While I'm not putting Walsh in UIndy's class necessarily, I hardly think the Cavaliers will be gracious as guests this Thursday. Walsh will have some experience at QB to start 2012, as Jack Dawson appears to be ready to take over at the controls. The senior has struggled through injuries (especially last year), but has been in coach Jim Dennison's system for several years and should be up to the task. Helping him out are last year's top receiver (Anthony Schrock) and ball carrier (Toba Olarewaju), so there is experience at the skill position for the Cavs.
I like Walsh to get the win here. The Panthers haven't been especially competitive of late, including only notching a single victory in 2011. Conversely, Walsh has beaten some solid clubs over the last couple of seasons and I think they want to be primed heading into their GLIAC opener in two weeks. Add in the fact that the Panthers will be breaking in a new QB (four-year starter Chris Owen is now gone and he holds every significant statistical school record a QB could), and this should be a good result for the Cavs. Walsh 21, Kentucky Wesleyan 14.
Lake Erie (3-8) at Gannon (4-7)
The "Shortest trip for an Opener" Award in the GLIAC goes to Lake Erie for 2012. The 75-mile jaunt to Erie, PA will find The Storm taking on former GLIAC and current PSAC member Gannon University in the "Battle of Lake Erie". While I won't vouch for the winner of said "battle" earning any sort of ownership or ruling stake over a Great Lake, I will note that the victor will get a jump start on erasing a disappointing 2011 result. The added incentive for Gannon is to erase the opening loss to LEC of a year ago.
Both programs are rife with change. Gannon has a lot of returning experience player-wise, but a new coaching staff and offensive scheme are the rule at this point. How the Knights respond and how quickly will dictate whether or not they can challenge in the PSAC East this year. As for The Storm, coach Mark McNellie and staff solidly are in place. Gone, however, is four-year starting QB Sean Bedevelsky and few would argue that he is what made LEC "go" over the last few seasons. Brendan Gallagher has had a few starts in his career, and will be a senior this year. If he winds up being the starter, he certainly won't be unfamiliar with what The Storm will look to do offensively.
Given that there is a hint more stability with Lake Erie (including a large chunk of the defense returning), I'll roll with The Storm here. Lake Erie 19, Gannon 14.
Mercyhurst (4-7) at Notre Dame (5-6)
Like the game above, it's a former GLIAC and current PSAC club taking on a current (at least for this year, anyway) GLIAC member...and with a short trip to do so, to boot. After a PSAC title and playoff run in 2010, Mercyhurst crashed back to earth last year. A lot of that was due to injury, and a more potent offense appears to be in order for the Lakers this year. Junior QB Anthony Vendemia started the second half of 2011 and gained a lot of experience, and he has the luxury of a pair of high-caliber backs in Richie Sanders and Allen Jones II.
As for Notre Dame, they had things running well last year. The Falcons were sitting at 5-2, but trudged through the final month of the year to lose their last four. The defense had its issues during that skid, allowing 45 points per game. If there isn't improvement on that side of the ball, it'll make things tougher for presumed starting QB Ray Russ. One key cog to the Falcon offense that should be ready for another big season is RB Pedro Powell, who racked up nearly 1,000 yards a year ago.
The Falcons nearly knocked off the 'Hurst last year, losing by a point in OT. While I think they can win, it's tough not to give a nod to Mercyhurst and their advantages in experience and overall level of competition. I like this game to be close, but am leaning toward the visitors. Mercyhurst 27, Notre Dame 20.
Ferris State (6-5) at St. Francis (10-3)
"GLIAC Old Home Week" continues...well, sort of, as Ferris travels to Joliet, IL to take on former MIFC member (close enough...sue me) St. Francis. I'll admit that I raised an eyebrow when seeing that Ferris went ahead and scheduled an NAIA opponent to start the season. That said, the notion of not playing anyone to help get ready for the ten-game GLIAC meat-grinder is an even lousier idea in my opinion, so "any port in a storm" sometimes is the way to go. Of course, making an early tilt more important is the fact that Ferris is sporting a new coaching staff, led by Tony Annese who assumes the helm after a much-heralded prep and JUCO career in West Michigan. Annese knows how tough it can be in the GLIAC, and not having any tuning for his club was apparently not all that appealing to him either.
Now, while the notion of taking on an NAIA outfit might seem like a walk in the park, Ferris doesn't have the "Little Sisters of the Poor" on the line here. USF was an NAIA quarterfinalist in 2011, and enters this season ranked #7 in the NAIA Coach's Poll. While they too have a new head coach (Joe Curry), he had spent the prior seven seasons at USF and was leading the defense a year ago so this isn't a wholesale change for the Fighting Saints. Adding further to the intrigue...the Saints already have a game under their belt. Yep, somehow they snuck one in already...and we all know that a team makes its biggest jump forward between its first and second games, right? I'm not sure how much of a leap USF can make, as their first game was pretty good. Don't get me wrong, I'm not exactly putting a lot of stock in a 44-14 thrashing of Concordia (OK, I live in Michigan and don't even know where that is...let alone that they have a football team...and I write for a small-college website...STILL didn't know...apparently it's near Ann Arbor? ...whatevs...I digress). Stock or no, it's hard to ignore an offense that racked up 600+ yards, had a WR haul in almost 200 yards worth, a RB sail past 100 yards, and QB (E.J. White) who ran for 100 yards and threw four TD passes in its opener. Right?
Do I really have to say it? OK..."NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND".
Coach Lee Corso...keeps it clean for Tony's post. We've seen his struggles with doing so in the past. Since this is a family program, we say "Thanks, Coach"!
Look, I'm not saying that Ferris won't have a tussle here. USF is going to come in here thinking they can hang AND win this game. That said, they just won't consistently see the caliber of athletes that the Bulldogs will roll in with. With LB Tayo Moss anchoring a solid defense and RB Skyler Stoker leading the offense, I don't care if Ferris has a new coach and a new offense and a new system and a new QB and new way of doing whatever. Ferris will have more talent and more depth, not to mention a coach who has proven he can prepare for opponents at various levels. I'll roll with the Bulldogs here. Ferris 41, St. Francis 21.
Northern Michigan (4-7) at Findlay (6-5)
We've talked about former GLIAC clubs, travel distances, and NAIA opponents thus far. Thursday night's final affair with GLIAC teams is actually a conference game...so now we can discuss the ever popular "scheduling anomalies". Fun, right?
Yep, with Northern trying to work a non-con game and Findlay not coming up with one, the parties asked each other and the league if it would be OK to move this back to opening weekend. Apparently everyone was fine with this all the way around, as here we are with the first true GLIAC game of the year. Flag City, USA is the GLIAC epicenter on Thursday, as sole and undisputed possession of the league lead for nearly nine full days is on the line!
Northern rolls in after an offseason of change. Head Coach Bernie Anderson is gone, but his former OC Chris Ostrowsky has taken over and retained a good portion of last year's staff. What he couldn't retain was starting QB Carter Kopach, who was a multi-year performer for the Wildcats. With that said, Ostrowsky has a few key cogs back on offense, including key backfield starters Prince Young and John Privitelli, most of his line, and top pass-catchers Julian Gaines and Christian Marble-King. They'll be relied upon to help the progress of new QB Ryan Morley.
The offense aside, something the Wildcats will need in a big way on Thursday is some solid defensive play, and that might be a tall order given a new scheme and only three returning starters. The 'Cat D will be tested, as Findlay returns one of the country's top RB's in Monterae Williams. Also back is senior QB Clay Belton, who is a dual threat with big-play ability. The Oilers are looking to parlay their winning campaign in coach Rob Keys' first season into a playoff run, and they have a lot of momentum and the (no getting around it) softer GLIAC South slate in their favor. A win here against the 'Cats will not only get them off to a good start, but ease the sting of the overtime loss they suffered against NMU a year ago.
While the enthusiasm in Marquette is more palpable than it has been in a while, there's no getting around that the 'Cats seem to be a different club away from home. This is a tough enough road trip for the new staff and young team, but it's compounded by the fact that they're heading to a destination that has its own revival of fervor going on. In the end, I'm taking a home team with an experienced QB and 17 returning starters. Findlay 24, Northern 14.