I've been reviewing their season today, and I got a chance to talk with their play-by-play announcer Bill Powers, so I think i'm starting to form an idea of who exactly the Mustangs are.
The bad news: At 10-0, the D2Football.com No. 1 team and Super Region 4 top seed, they're the real deal. This team hasn't scored less than 35 points all season, and their worst offensive performance - yard wise - was a 450 yard output in a 44-13 victory over Tarleton State.
The good news: They play in the LSC, who is a pitiful 5-14 against non-conference opponents in the playoffs in the past 10 seasons (2002-this year), and they're playing Northwest Missouri State, who is 8-0 all-time versus LSC teams in the playoffs - including one win each of the past seven years.
A common knock you'll hear about the Mustangs, like any team in the LSC, is that they don't play a whole lot of defense. Powers said while the Lone Star Conference is certainly known for (particularly the last few years) its offensive firepower, this Midwestern State team is sound defensively. The numbers don't necessarily refute that point either. The 'Stangs gave up 20 points or fewer in five of their first six games, held two different opponents to under 200 total yards of offense and kept a pretty good West Texas A&M team to just 267 yards.
But overall, nothing about the MSU defense is all that scary. They boast two first-team All-LSC performers in outside linebacker Jeremy Smith and safety Pat Gardner.
While Powers says the team's secret strength might be the defensive secondary, led by Gardner, the statistics show that on the surface, the rush defense is much more effective. Midwestern ranks 10th in the nation in rush defense, allowing only 101.2 yards a contest, but are 135th in the country in pass defense, giving up more than 255 yards a game.
A big reason for that is they have a lot of big leads and teams are passing a lot more and running a lot less, I get that, so we'll see if Powers is right when it comes to their secondary.
Back to the offense though. That's what makes this national powerhouse tick. Run mostly from a spread formation, their 50.4 points a game trail only Northwest Missouri in that category and they lead second-place Nebraska-Kearney by more than 20 yards a game in total offense.
Most of it comes on the ground, but don't be fooled. The catalyst behind this high-powered offense is quarterback Brandon Kelsey, one of just nine national Harlon Hill finalists.
The junior has had five 100-yard rushing games this season, and while he ranks fifth nationally in passing efficiency, he's only thrown the ball 206 times (compare that to fellow Harlon Hill candidate Dane Simoneau, who has attempted 446 passes).
Kelsey hasn't thrown a touchdown in the past two games, but has rushed for at least one in each of the last seven (including a 110 yard, three touchdown rushing game against West Texas A&M).
Kelsey is the team's leading rusher, but MSU certainly isn't without others that can hurt you on the ground.
In fact, the Mustangs have three very capable running backs - Keidrick Jackson has rushed for 860 yards and 17 touchdowns, Lester Bush has added 588 yards and 12 touchdowns and LSC freshman of the year Jimmy Pipkin has thrown in 655 yards and seven touchdowns.
Powers calls Jackson your typical-type running back who can find a hole and make you pay for it, Bush the 'bull' of the group who is unstoppable on third or fourth and short and Pipkin the speedster of the bunch.
Put it all together, and you have the nation's second-best rushing attack (behind only 4-7 Harding).
How does that happen? An insanely good offensive line, one that Powers calls the best he's seen in 25 years of covering Division II football.
The group is lead by LSC Offensive Lineman of the Year Amini Silatolu, a 6'3, 330-pound tackle. Guards Ken Van Heule and Hank Gilley join Silatolu on the All-LSC first-team offense, while center Justen Tyler and fellow tackle Bryan Keith made the second team.
And when Kelsey does decide to pass the ball (heck, why not, he's completign nearly 70 percent of his passes), he's got plenty of options. Wide receiver David Little is the LSC Receiver of the Year, with 55 catches for 729 yards and six touchdowns, and Edgard Theilar and Sheldon Galloway proved worthy enough of second-team all LSC honors.
Throw in a solid place kicker, who despite only attempting six field goals (making five of them) is third in the conference in scoring and landed on the All Conference second team.
You put it all together, and what do you get? An offense that will NOT be shut down - they've scored a touchdown in 36 consecutive quarters (that's each quarter of the last nine games) - and a defense that Powers says bends but doesn't break.
Hmmm, sounds oddly familiar, doesn't it Bearcat fans?
Other notes:
- On third downs, Midwestern converts 44.4% on offense, good enough for 25th in the country and on defense allows third down conversions about 35.6%, which puts them at 49th nationally. Northwest is better at converting third downs - their 50.7% puts them fifth nationally - but ranks just behind them defensively, allowing opponents to move the chains 34.7% of the time (52nd).
- The Mustangs don't turn the ball over much (only nine teams have less than their 15), but they don't force many turnovers either (only 10 teams have forced fewer than their 14).
- MSU is one of only five teams in the entire country to have allowed fewer than 10 sacks, and only Pitt State (6), Newberry (5) and Harding (3) have allowed fewer than their 8.
- Midwestern State has scored touchdowns on 45 of their 51 trips into the red zone, adding field goals on three other journeys inside the 20. Their 94% scoring clip puts them first among teams with at least 10 trips to the red zone (St. Cloud scored on all nine trips).
As for a prediction, I'll get into that in a separate post later this week. For now, take a listen to my entire interview with Powers (you'll have to forgive my daugther Maci. She wanted to be a part of the interview, but she forgets she's only seven months old).