With Pittsburg State's dominating win at Northwest Missouri this week leaving both at 6-1 and tied atop the MIAA standings, the Gorillas and Bearcats are (if they win out) locks to get into the playoffs, right?

Wrong.

So they both need help then?

Maybe.

After 7 weeks of the D2 Football season, 5 undefeated teams at the top of Super Region 3, five 1-loss teams, earned access and even 5 more 2-loss teams leave the playoff picture for the MIAA, and the entire region, a complete crapshoot.

Before you continue reading, it's important to remember that you'll be ingesting only my opinion. The Regional Rankings, which determine the 6 teams to make the playoffs from SR3 (MIAA, NSIC, GAC, GNAC) are based on numbers, but a committee is also involved and nobody seems to know the exact formula used to figure out the seeding (some on the D2 message board are awfully close, but not perfect). While my prognostications are based on many years of experience analyzing and reviewing playoff selections, in the end, I'm doing nothing more than throwing darts.

I like darts. It's a fun game.

It's also important to have an understanding of earned access. Like I said, 6 teams make the playoffs from the 4 conferences that make up the region. It's usually the top-6 teams in the Regional Rankings, but earned access can flip that around a bit. Earned access is when a conference lands a team in the Top 8, but not the Top 6, that team will bump No. 6 from the field.

Strength of schedule is a huge determining factor in seeding. Most MIAA teams take a hit in that this year because of the move to an all-in-conference schedule. Because the conference as a whole will finish at .500, a 10-1 MIAA team (9 games over .500) will finish with a SOS of 9 games UNDER .500.

Below is a list of the 15 aforementioned teams that I believe have a shot at making the playoffs in the region. Many argue that 2-loss teams have already been eliminated, and yeah that's probably the case, but you never know what's going to happen in the final 4 weeks of the season, and if any of the 2-loss teams win out, teams above them will lose and it could throw them into the mix.

So yes, that means I think, while miniscule, there are chances for Central Oklahoma, Missouri Western and Central Missouri to still make the playoffs.

Team (Conference) Record (Wins against the 'Top 15') (Losses Bold indicates loss to team NOT in 'Top 15') (Remaining games against 'Top 15')

Henderson State (GAC) 7-0 (ECU) (None) (v HU 10/25, v OBU 11/15)
Minnesota State-Mankato (NSIC) 7-0 (None) (None) (v USF 11/1, v Upper Iowa 11/15)
Minnesota Duluth (NSIC) 7-0 (None) (None) (None)
Ouachita Baptist (GAC) 6-0 (ECU, Harding) (none) (@HSU 11/15)
Sioux Falls (NSIC) 7-0 (None) (None) (@Mankato 11/1, v Upper Iowa 11/8)

Pittsburg State (MIAA) 6-1 (NW Missouri, Mo. Western) (Fort Hays) (v UCM 11/8, @ UCO 11/15)
Northwest Missouri (MIAA) 6-1 (UCO, UCM, UCO) (PSU) (v MWSU 11/1)
Harding (GAC) 5-1 (None) (Ouachita) (@HSU 10/25)
Azusa Pacific 6-1 (GNAC) (Humboldt) (Humboldt) (None)
Humboldt State (GNAC) 5-1 (Azusa) (Azusa) (None)

Upper Iowa (NSIC) 5-2 (None) (SW MINNESOTA, WINONA) (@USF 11/8, @ MANKATO 11/15)
East Central (GAC) 4-2 (None) (OBU, Henderson) (v Harding 11/8)
Missouri Western (MIAA) 5-2 (UCM) (UCO, PSU) (@ NWMSU 11/1)
Central Missouri (MIAA) 5-2 (UCO) (NWMSU, MWSU) (@ PSU 11/8)
Central Oklahoma (MIAA) 5-2 (MWSU) (NWMSU, UCM) (v PSU 11/15)

As you can see, there's a lot of big games left to be played.

Of the 5 undefeated teams, only three CAN finish the season undefeated, as Mankato plays Sioux and Henderson plays Ouachita.

Let's assume Henderson State, Duluth and Mankato all finish undefeated. Henderson dominates the GAC every year, Duluth hasn't and won't play anybody of significance and Mankato has proven a stranglehold on the NSIC. If you finish undefeated, I don't care what your SOS is. You deserve to be in, and I don't see any of them being left out.

That leaves 3 spots for the rest of the teams.

Here's a look at the MIAA teams and what they want/need to happen.

Pittsburg State: In the above assumption, USF and OBU each also have one loss. Northwest, Azusa and Humboldt could finish with 1 loss each as well. If Pitt wins out, that could mean as many as 6 1-loss teams battling for 3 spots. Pitt's loss to Fort Hays will be the worst of the bunch and the Gorillas may need to rely on earned access to get in. I'd say if they can finish 10-1, they'll be in one way or another.

Northwest Missouri: Their loss to Pitt will certainly hurt if both finish with 1 loss. Frankly, winning out may not be enough. They may also need a slip-up (not forecasted above) from any of the teams currently with 0 or 1 loss.

Missouri Western: Winning out would put NW Missouri at 2 losses, both to teams above them in this scenario. The Griffons would still need additional losses from OBU, USF, Azusa and Humboldt. I'd think MoWest would rank above 2-loss Ouachita and 2-loss Sioux Falls, and even earned access likely couldn't help Humboldt and Azusa if they both lose again because of the GNAC's SOS. MoWest fans should also hope UCO loses again so they don't have to worry about their H2H loss there.

Central Oklahoma: Winning out gives Pittsburg a 2nd loss and the H2H advantage there. UCO would need the same additional losses as Missouri Western, plus another loss from UCM to negate the Bronchos' H2H loss.

Central Missouri: Winning out gives Pittsburg a 2nd loss and the H2H advantage there. Give the Mules the same additional losses that MoWest & UCO need and they'd be in good shape. Another loss from MoWest would also help, given UCM's H2H loss in Week 1.

Get it? Yeah, me neither. It's confusing and reliant on SO MUCH. But let's try to recap quickly: You want your MIAA team in? Just go ahead and root against EVERY non-conference team among the 'Top 15.' Hope as many as possible of the currently-undefeateds fall and the current 1 and 2-loss teams keep losing. And heck, you're probably already doing this, but root against the other MIAA teams to keep dropping games too because seriously, NOBODY in the conference is super-safe right now - except for MAYBE Pitt State.

MIAA Champion Outlook

This is a little easier, because it's simply about win-loss records. Here we go.

Pitt State: Remember, any 2 teams that finish with the same records will SHARE a conference title, so the Gorillas only - right now - control their own destiny to splitting the title with Northwest. If Pitt wins out and Northwest drops another, PSU is your outright champion.

Northwest Missouri: So yeah, Northwest still controls their own destiny to at least splitting an MIAA title. Win out and get another loss from Pitt, it belongs to the Bearcats.

Missouri Western: Win out (puts NW Missouri at 2 losses), get another loss out of Pitt, and you'll at least share the title. The outright title is yours if you win out plus get another loss from NW, UCM & UCO and 2 more from Pitt.

Central Missouri: Win out (puts Pitt at 2 losses), get another loss out of Northwest, and you'll at least share the title. The outright title is yours if you win out plus get another loss from Pitt, MoWest & UCO and 2 more from Northwest.

Central Oklahoma: Win out (puts Pitt at 2 losses), get another loss out of Northwest, and you'll at least share the title. The outright title is yours if you win out, plus get another loss from Pitt, MoWest & UCM and 2 more from Northwest.

If you want to be technical, Pitt and Northwest could finish with as many as 5 losses, so I guess only Northeastern State and Lindenwood are officially eliminated. But saying Hays, Emporia, Southern, Washburn and Kearney still have a shot is stretching it, even for me.

Let me know what you think about the playoff chase and the MIAA title hunt in the comments below. You can also tweet me @miAARONd2 or friend me at Facebook.com/apheintz.