Upper Iowa at University (2-6) of Sioux Falls (7-1)

Both teams come into Saturday's meeting off of close games that went down to the last play of the game. One team is coming in off a victory, the other in off a tough loss.

USF won on an extra point of all things in double over time, to win the Key to the City of Sioux Falls, as they beat Augustana for the first time in their program's history. While Upper Iowa lost, on a late touchdown to Southwest again, and squandering a 12-0 lead in the process.

If you ask me, Saturday's game is a matchup of two of the better quarterbacks in the NSIC South, if not the NSIC as a whole. Taylor Perkins is having a solid season leading the Cougars, who are trying to stay in the playoff hunt, while Cole Jaeschke is having a terrific season as a sophomore, during Upper Iowa's 2-6 campaign.

Let's start with Perkins, he has thrown for 1977 yards and 22-touchdowns this season to just four interceptions. His arm strength and a deep threat in Jeremiah Oates allows the Cougars to score from all over the field. He is certainly one of the reasons the Cougars are off to this 7-1 start.

Last week in the second over time after Augustana scored, but had the extra point blocked, Perkins calmly led the Cougars 25-yards in three plays, as he found a wide open Carrington Hanna to tie the game. Of course, the Cougars won the game on the kick from Braden Wieking.

I think Upper Iowa's Cole Jaeschke is having just as good of a season though for Upper Iowa. Jaeschke has a strong arm, and makes good decisions, and has thrown for 2,097 yards and 19 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. His play hasn't turned into wins and losses yet for the Peacocks, but ask any of the coaches who have seen him, and they will tell you, he is quickly becomming one of the top quarterbacks in the South, and he's only a sophomore. Keep an eye on this kid.

Upper Iowa has enough talent to scare anyone, but this game is about the Cougars, they need to just do the things they do, and not look forward to next week when they will get their turn against a tough MSU squad.

Look for a focused group in Sioux Falls, I will take the Cougars.


Augustana (3-5) at Concordia (2-6)
Last Year: 37-13 Augustana

At 3-5, out of the hunt for a playoff spot, an uphill battle to pursue a winning season, and a loss to cross town rival USF, I think its fair to say the 2012 football season has been disappointing for Augustana.

Usually when you outscore your opponents by an average of 9-points a game, out gain them in every offensive category, convert on 53-percent of your third downs, only allow opponents to convert on 35-percent of theirs, AND don't commit a lot of turnovers, you are going to be in pretty good shape.

The problem for the Vikings is this, they have scored 127 of their 293 points in two games, a 61-0 route of Minnesota Crookston, and a 66-20 thrashing of Upper Iowa. Those two contests have also been two of the Vikings better defensive efforts as well, in fact, outside of their only other win, a 35-14 victory over Northern State, their two best, and the only three games all season Augustana has given up less than 30 points.

Concordia is built very much the same way, they have a lot of athletes and an ability to score a lot of points, so I would expect a track meet, Saturday, one where the winner may need to score 50-points.

The stat to watch in the game is this, Concordia quarterback James Peterson has thrown 16-interceptions on the season, if he can avoid the turnovers the Golden Bears should beat Augustana on Saturday. If not, they won't.

Still off an emotional loss for the Vikings, during what has been a disappointing season, I like the Golden Bears to emerge with a win at home.


Minnesota State (8-0) at Wayne State (5-3)
Last Year: 45-23 Minnesota State

The Mavericks are running through the teeth of their schedule right now. Last week they went to Winona State and came out of the "River City" with a victory over a team that is in contention to make the playoffs. Next week they have a meeting with the NSIC South's only other team remaining with less than 2-losses.

With this game on the road at Wayne State, you hope if you are Maverick Coach Aaron Keen that your guys are not looking past this week to next week when they have that big clash.

Because if they are, Wayne State can beat anyone. Unlike a lot of the other games this week, I don't know that I would expect a high scoring one here. These are two of the better defensive units in the conference, Wayne though will have to continue the improvements they have made against the run.

The Wildcats have have only given up about 180-yards combined on the ground the last two weeks. But their test will be a tough one this week, as the Mavericks have the most explosive rushing attack in the league. It hasn't mattered who has been playing quarterback or who has been taking most of the carries, the Mavericks have been able to run the ball, to the tune of 1,751 yards, second in the Northern Sun.

Further they have stuffed the run defensively, and even though Wayne State had more consistency through the air last week, as Bryan Kent completed 11/17 passing for 224 yards and three touchdowns, they don't want to have to be forced into throwing the ball every down, their offense really isn't built for that.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, that also means they are going to struggle on Saturday, I will take the Mavericks to pick up a win at Wayne.


Minnesota Duluth (7-1) at Minnesota Crookston (1-7)
Last Week: 49-7, Minnesota Duluth.

There's not a lot to say about this one honestly, the Bulldogs are the better team, they shouldn't have any trouble in Crookston on Saturday.

However, they have lost in Crookston one time, the first time they were both members of the Northern Sun, it was back before the Golden Eagles started struggling though, in 2002.

The Bulldogs come in as the top rushing team in the Northern Sun, they are averaging nearly 240-yards on the ground a game, and that said, they don't have a single rusher with more than 500 yards on the ground, talk about a balanced attack.

Running backs Austin Sikorski and Logan Lauters, quarterback Chace Vogler, are all at about 400 yards on the ground on the season (Sikorski is closer to 500). But its been mainly about balance for the Bulldogs this year.

Overall they ahve been more balanced than in the past, and their rushing attack has shown balance as well.

That's problematic for Minnesota Crookston, so is the Bulldog defense that gives up less than 100 yards a game on the ground. Minnesota Duluth can be thrown on, but the Golden Eagles haven't thrown it much.

I will take Minnesota Duluth, BIG on Saturday in Crookston.



Minot State (2-6) at MSU Moorhead (1-7)

Starting the year how the Dragons did, with so many Freshmen, there is no real surprise that it has been a rough year for Scortch. But it is a crew that has been making some progress, despite their 1-7 record.

Last week, the Dragons Defense kept a Craig Bagnell led Mary offense to under 300 yards of total offense, that's a pretty big accomplishment. Granted it was the first time Bagnell had played in a month, but it was still progress for the Dragons, in a 23-7 loss to the Marauders.

Three turnovers though certainly didn't help the Dragons in that loss. If they can cut those out, they have a chance to win last week, and maybe will again this week.

The Beavers are coming in as a confident bunch though, they are coming off a big win over Minot State this week. Zach Cuna hit the Golden Eagles deep, completing nine of just 14 passes for 227 yards. He'll take that yard per completion stat.

This could be an interesting one on Saturday, but I like Minot to win on the road.


Bemidji State (4-4) at St. Cloud State (5-3)
Last Year: 19-14, Bemidji State

Despite outgaining the Beavers last year, and going 10/16 on third down conversions in the game, Bemidji State got a surprise win at home against St. Cloud last season.

In fact, the Beaver defense held St. Cloud to seven points, until there was a 1:27 left in the game, when Phil Klaphake hit Damon Treat for his only touchdown of the afternoon.

Well, last week, the Huskies were the victims of another surprise, with just :42-seconds remaining Klaphake scored what appeared to be the game winning touchdown, on a two yards run, to put St. Cloud up 27-21, completing a 20-point fourth quarter comeback.

But that's when things started going wrong for the Huskies, Northern blocked kicker Taylor Berger's extra point, and then, the Wolves marched six plays and 64 yards when Jared Jacobson hit Mark Hanley on a 34 yard touchdown connection. Felipe Aliafa's extra point was good and the Huskies were beaten. Just like that their playoff hopes dashed.

Bemidji also comes into the game a little stunned though, the Beavers had their 3-game winning streak snapped at Minnesota Duluth last week. It was the first time since last year that the Beavers got shut out. The last team to do it to Bemidji State, well ironically it was Northern State, the week before Bemidji beat St. Cloud.

If this game was in Bemidji on the grass, and slower track, I would maybe lean the Beavers in this one. But since the Beavers responded from a loss to Northern to beat St. Cloud last year, I think I will take St. Cloud to respond from their loss to Northern to beat Bemidji.


Northern State (4-4) at University of Mary (4-4)
Last Year: 39-36, Northern State

Obviously folks in Aberdeen, South Dakota are feeling good this week after Northern State had one of their biggest wins in recent years. This is right up there wit hthe victory the Wolves had over Augustana last year, and they are putting themselves in position to have a pretty strong finish to 2012.

After their 5-6 finish last season, on the heels of a three game winning streak the Wolves are hungry to improve on that mark from last year. Two wins in their final three games and they will have it. This week won't be easy for Northern though, I am not sure how great of a matchup the University of Mary is for them.

Craig Bagnell returned last week, and while he didn't post huge numbers he did help lift his squad to their first win since they beat Southwest Minnesota State back on September 15th.

The Wolves can be hurt through the air, they like to commit to stopping the run, even against teams that are a little more based through the air. So don't look for Northern to change who they are, if Mary wants to win, they will have to attack Northern through their vulnerabilities.

I do anticipate the Marauders having some trouble with that Northern State attack, the Wolves have found more balance offensively in the last couple of weeks especially, so you just can't key on stopping that speed option running attack.

This should be a good game on Saturday, but I think playing at home gives Mary the edge, and I expect them to win on Saturday.


Southwest Minnesota State (3-5) at Winona State (6-2)
Last Year: 47-20 Winona State

One team comes off an emotional win, the other off of a tough loss in a game that could have turned the tables in the Northern Sun Playoff Picture.

Coach Tom Sawyer admits that his team had chances to beat Minnesota State last week. He points to a costly couple of turnoveers in the red zone that hurt his squad against the Mavericks.

Look for Winona to get back to what they do. Rayon Simmons has had monster games against Southwest the last few seasons. The NSIC's All time leading rusher should be featured for Winona once again this week as the Mustangs despite playing better as of late, continue to struggle stopping the run. In fact through eight games this year, six of SMSU's opponents have run for more than 200 yards in the game, only Northern State and Wayne State have not.

Now, a big way for the Mustangs to keep Simmons from getting to that mark, is by doing some damage on the ground themselves, which is maybe the biggest improvement this team has made this year, they have pounded the football on opponents, that has kept them in games, and allowed them to compete at a higher level.

Winona's defense has been playing better the last few weeks since they escaped from a near loss to Upper Iowa.

I think this game could be a battle Saturday, but again, I lean the home team, I expect Winona to hold off a spirited effort from the Mustangs.