After watching things last week, I found this week's Regional Rankings somewhat disappointing. Not saying that things can't change for Winona State, or Sioux Falls this week, because you never know, but if you ask me the Northern Sun has four playoff teams, three of them are in the NSIC South, and only one or two at best are going to get in.

The painful reality for some of those teams is that, if the Super Region 3 Playoffs began this week, there is only one tam in the Northern Sun going, Minnesota State Mankato, and at 9-0, I think they have earned it.

Minnesota Duluth's loss to St. Cloud really hurts them, but the tough part for the Bulldogs is that they are a last second, last play loss, away from behing unbeaten, and they have fallen out of the top six, with really no way to get back in, without help in the MIAA.

And even if they get that help, what if USF beats Minnesota State this week, that means the Cougars have only one loss, like Duluth, and a much better strength of schedule, what would stop them from jumping over the Bulldogs.

For that matter, what about a 9-2, Winona State team, their only two losses on the season came to Minnesota Duluth on the road, and Minnesota State at home, and they beat USF.

But there are some big games that remain, as we head towards the playoffs, in particular, the game we start off with this week.


Sioux Falls (8-1) at Minnesota State (9-0)

Everything is on the line Saturday for Sioux Falls. The Cougars kept their playoff hopes alive despite a furious rally from Upper Iowa.

Sioux Falls built a quick 37-0 lead only to see Cole Jaeschke torch their defensive secondary for 600-yards and five touchdowns in the game. That showed some deficiencies for the Cougars, but this week, Minnesota State doesn't throw the ball that effectively (for that matter I am not sure that anyone in the NSIC does).

To be perfectly honest, I think the game will come down more to how the Cougars stop the run. The Mavericks have a running attack like no one else in the Northern Sun, they are three backs deep, plus a quarterback who can beat you with their feet. They will run it at opponents in a variety of ways, and with a lot of different ball carriers.

Sioux Falls has been giving up about 127-yards a game against the rush this season, but don't forget they have been playing with large leads in many of their games, so teams sometimes are forced to give up on the run.

The Cougars can be hurt on the ground too, and with Mankato's rushing attack, and playing at home, losing to the Mavericks on the road is nothing to be ashamed up, unfortunately for the Cougars that loss wil keep them from the playoffs. I will take the Mavericks on Saturday.



Winona State (7-2) at Augustana (4-5)
Last Year: 23-15, Augustana

Its a must win game for Winona, I won't gurantee that if the Warriors win out that they will make the playoffs, but I think if they win out a 12th game is a strong possibility, whether its in the Playoffs or in the Mineral Water Bowl, Winona has some chances.

The Vikings are playing for pride, and trying to cling to hopes of a winning season in Sioux Falls. To be honest, just when you think the Vikings are ready to give up, they do something like beat Concordia on the road last week.

Winona looked like the best team in the Northern Sun last week against Southwest. The Warriors dominated the line of scrimmage, and controlled the game, running for over 300 yards, and letting John Tiegland loose as he threw for 259 yards and four touchdowns.

Augustana has the talent to challenge the Warriors on Saturday though, especially at home. It just is hard to know if they will. The Vikings are 2-2 at home this season, and haven't won at home since their 61-0 route of Minnesota Crookston on September 15th!

Certainly, Josh Hanson can keep Augustana in any game, and receiver Sam Gephart and Tightend Ben Parsley have caught 15 of Hanson's 27 touchdown passes on the season.

Winona's pass defense though can be tough, the Warriors do a great job disguising blitzes and coverages, and that will challenge Hanson and company.

Turnovers could tell the story, if Winona is careful with the ball, I like their chances, especially because with the way the Vikings take chances the opportunity to Winona to hit on big plays will occur. But, the Warriors have turned it over 4-times in the redzone in the last two weeks. It cost them the game against Minnesota State, and kept Southwest in the game through the first half last week.

I am not going to issue the upset alert here, because there's too much on the line for Winona, I like the Warriors to get the road win.



Wayne State (5-4) at Upper Iowa (2-7)
Last Year: 44-41 ot, Wayne State

There is little about the NSIC that can be guranteed these days, however, there is something about this matchup.

Much like against Southwest, Upper Iowa always comes to fight against Wayne State. Look for this year to be no different, because to me, it looks like the Peacocks are coming to battle a lot more this year.

Cole Jaeschke had a special week last week. The NSIC's Offensive Player of the Week, is quickly becoming one of the premiere quarterbacks in the Northern Sun. The sophomore is already second on Upper Iowa's all time passing list with 5,149 and is in third place on the all time list for touchdowns in a career with 37. Additionally in that rally last week against USF, Jaeschke threw for a school record 606 yards, while completing 43 passes on 78 attempts, also both school records. I hope he iced his arm.

There's not much to figure out about how the Peacocks intend to attack the Wildcats this week, it will be through the air. They may run some to preserve some balance, but they will try and beat a Wildcat defense that gives up about 240-yards a game through the air. That could play right into the Wayne State pass rush, though, so the key to the whole day for Upper Iowa will be protecting Jaeschke.

If the Peacocks get out to an early lead, Wayne may have some trouble battling back, they really aren't built for having to battle from behind.

You might be able to count the defensive stops on one hand in this one, but believe it or not, I like the Peacocks in an upset this week.



Concordia St. Paul (2-7) at Southwest Minnesota State (3-6)
Last Year: 60-53, Concordia

Speaking of defensive stops coming at a premium, here is another of those games. No joke, I know there are games where the men's basketball teams between these two schools have combined for less points than these two did last year in the Metrodome.

I would expect a similar result this year. Both teams come into this one though with key injuries.

For Concordia, their best defensive player Zach Moore who has 10-sacks on the season, left the game last week against Augustana, and did not return. My speculation is that Moore will go, despite Concordia ruling him questionable.

I have a similar feeling about Mustang quarterback Tyler Peschong, who was the left the game early in the fourth quarter against Winona State. With only two games left in his career, it will take quite the injury for him to miss the game. If he is unable to go, Charlie Kern would start for Southwest.

But Peschong put up career numbers against Concordia last week, so you know he will be chomping at the bit to go, as he threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns.

Concordia's passing attack will pose a test for a Mustang Secondary, who is only giving up about 209-yards through the air a game. But the Mustangs when they have been hurt, are mostly getting hurt on the ground.

It could go either way, again I expect a lot of points, but at home, I will take Southwest.


MSU Moorhead (1-8) at Bemidji State (5-4)
Last Year: 35-10, Bemidji State

Battle for the Axe in Bemidji this week.

Moorhead has been getting better as the season has gone on, but I don't think the Trophy Game is going to make a big difference this week.

Only Southwest and Minnesota Crookston give up more yards on the ground a game than Moorhead does. That is the main reason, I see them Dragons getting beat up this week.

That's good news for Bemidji State, who's quarterback Lance Rongstad led the ground game against St. Cloud State last week. Rongstad ran for 115 yards and three scores against SCSU, and as a team Bemidji ran for over 200 yards, as they scored a season's best 37-points.

That was a big highlight for the Beavers, because offensively the Beavers have not been a thing of beauty this season, but they have been doing enough to win games, because of their defense. Before their shutout 30-0 loss at Minnesota Duluth, the Beavers defemse had been slamming the door holding Northern to six points, 21-points to Mary, and just two points to Minnesota Crookston.

And now, well, they have won four of five and are on a roll.

This one is easy, Bemidji State keeps the axe.



University of Mary (4-5) at Minnesota Duluth (8-1)
Last Year: 41-28, Minnesota Duluth

I have no idea what has happened at Mary, but they are not the same team they were at the start of the season.

Last week's loss to Northern, 65-17 is inexplicable. It is also unacceptable for Mary, not that they lost, but how they lost.

There were dominated by the Wolves, Northern put up 635 yards of total offense against the Marauders last week, in Bismarck. You can't lose like that, especially at home, fans start to wonder what's going on.

Last week Craig Bagnell was picked off four times in the game, and the Marauders weren't able to run the ball against the Wolves. It is not the Mary squad that started the season 3-0.

That's a major red flag, this week, they take on Minnesota Duluth, a Bulldog squad that even with only one loss is having a tough time locking up a playoff spot.

This could have been set up for one of the biggest matchups in a late season NSIC North title race, instead, with the Bulldogs at home, I expect them to win handily on Saturday.


Minnesota Crookston (1-8) at Northern State (5-4)
Last Year: 45-21, Northern State

Northern State has been the surprise team in the Northern Sun this year. The Wolves last week, laid a beating to the University of Mary, picking off Craig Bagnell four times, and pouring on over 600 yards of offense while burying the Marauders.

They face Minnesota Crookston this week, and the Golden Eagles lone victory is over a team that beat Northern, but that shouldn't matter. Northern has been playing very well against the run, which is of course Northern did a great job shutting down last week.

The Wolves are for real, they maybe 5-4 overall, but right now they are 4-1 in the NSIC North Division, that means they are a win (against UMC) away from playing for the North Division Title next week against Minnesota Duluth.

You had better believe the Wolves will bring the "A Game" this week, I look for another large Northern State victory.


St. Cloud State (5-4) at Minot State (3-6)

Things haven't gone as planned for St. Cloud State this year, the Huskies suffered another disappointing loss on Saturday against Bemidji State. Disappointing because the team came in with aspirations in 2012, lost to Sioux Falls to open the season, and haven't been the same since.

Last week the Huskies had no answer to stop Lance Rongstad who ran for 3-touchdowns in the game, leading a Bemidji rushing attack that ran for 227 yards against the Husky defense.

Don't think for a minute this is an easy game for St. Cloud. Here is why, that last second loss to Northern State knocked the Huskies out of playoff hopes, and last week they looked like it. They are playing a Minot team hungry coming off their third win of the season.

At home, late in the year, the Minot State Beavers are looking for a game to hang their hat on, as they try and build momentum into 2013.

As to the matchup itself, we talked about how St. Cloud was beat up by Bemidji's ground attack last week, well Minot got theirs rolling last week, rushing for 204 yards in the game over Minnesota State Moorhead. Randel Barber led the attack running for 93-yards and a pair of scores.

St. Cloud, on the road off a disappointing effort last weekend, where they were beaten by Bemidji State at home, do you think there is anyone on that team that wants to make this road trip, late in the season, in what is basically a meaningless game for the Huskies?

Look for a spirited effort from the Beavers this week, while it is one of those games you call a moxy tester for St. Cloud. What are the Huskies made of? We find out on Saturday.

As for my money, Scott Underwood has rallied this team everytime against odds stacked against him, since the Huskies entered the Northern Sun in 2008. My prediction is he does it again, I expect St. Cloud to win a battle on Saturday in Minot.