Here we are with only three weekends remaining in the 2015 season and the hopes of a national championship for the Gulf South Conference rests solely on the backs of the West Georgia Wolves. They will host the Tuskegee University Golden Tigers this Saturday for the regional title and birth into the national semifinals.

#19 Tuskegee (10-2) at #6 West Georgia (11-1) @ 12 PM EST

Last Meeting: UWG 20-17 (2014)
Series: 2nd meeting; UWG leads 1-0

West Georgia is taking it one game at a time, but eager to continue their march to Kansas City. Last week, they hosted their first playoff game ever (after being road warriors in the 2014 post-season) while defeating in-state and GSC rival Valdosta State in a much more competitive game than their first meeting this season. The Wolves didn’t look quite as dominant as earlier in the season, after their week off and against an improved VSU squad, but performed very well and got their first playoff victory at home for the local crowd to enjoy. UWG had most of their success in the running game last week with two Wolves players, quarterback Dallas Dickey and running back Devontae Jackson, gaining 100 or more yards rushing in the contest. UWG’s defense held the Blazers to 81 rushing yards in the matchup.

In Tuskegee’s third consecutive season in the playoffs, after giving up their annual Thanksgiving Day game with Alabama State, the Golden Tigers have earned their first-ever playoff victories. The first two seasons they made the postseason they were defeated by GSC teams in the first round by 3 points each time. This year they went up to beat SAC champions Catawba and then went to Florence last week and avenged their 2013 playoff loss by defeating GSC co-champs North Alabama, with the winning touchdown coming 19 seconds before the end of the game. This week they have the chance to avenge last year’s playoff loss as they travel to meet GSC co-champions West Georgia, who won 20-17 in Tuskegee in 2014. Coach Willie Slater seems to have his team fired up and refocused after closing the regular season with a loss to Miles. Last week, the Tigers were led on offense by running back Dennis Norfleet who ran for 136 yards and two touchdowns. The TU defense held UNA to just 43 rushing yards in the game.

TU Key Stats:

Avg. Points Scored: 30.3
Avg. Points Allowed: 17.1
Offensive Yards: 336.4
Yards Allowed: 277.0
Turnover Margin: +3
Avg. Penalties: 94.1 yards
Third Down Conversions: 34.1%
Red Zone Scores: 74.5%
Field Goals: 6-13 (46.2%)

UWG Key Stats:

Avg. Points Scored: 38.0
Avg. Points Allowed: 15.3
Offensive Yards: 415.4
Yards Allowed: 245.8
Turnover Margin: Even
Avg. Penalties: 77.9 yards
Third Down Conversions: 42.3%
Red Zone Scores: 83.1%
Field Goals: 11-12 (91.7%)

After reviewing the key statistics, watching UWG all season, and seeing Tuskegee play last week, I feel this will most likely go the Wolves’ way. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UWG pull away in this game and have it in hand way before the end, possibly in the 3rd Quarter as they have outscored opponents 110-21 in that period this season. But, based on my knowledge of TU’s head coach and their competitive outcomes the last two years in the playoffs coupled with their two wins this year, I’m also thinking this could potentially be a very close outcome according to who has the ball last.

If TU can keep the turnover margin in their favor and have a good day from their kicker, this will be a good game. Otherwise, Will Hall and the Wolves will easily move into the semis.

My Pick: Wolves by 3