Can you believe we’re already into Week 4 of Gulf South Conference action?

I know it’s a tough sport physically, but sometimes I wish we had much longer seasons. It won’t be long before we’re talking about the post-season! That said, there’s still a lot of football to be played in 2016.

It's that time of the early season when teams are figuring some things out but still have plenty to work on. This week, I’m going to feature some of the good traits I’m seeing from our conference along with some of the bad qualities coupled with mentions of the ugly.

Shorter (0-3) at Delta State (1-2) @ 2 PM CST

Other than the overtime loss to Mars Hill, it’s been a harsh welcome for Coach Kelton. One positive stat that sticks out to me for the Shorter Hawks is that they have already completed as many passes in 2016 as they did in all of 2015 and average 9.12 yards per catch. They also lead the conference in discipline only averaging 55.7 penalty yards per game. When I heard they were going away from the option this season I was pleased as it wasn’t bringing them wins in previous seasons. However, what has happened so far is that the running game has almost been non-existent. They currently average 0.8 yards per carry and surely miss the talent of BJ McCoy, who is rumored to be out for the season with an injury. Even with that startling stat, the most damaging has to be their 16.7% third down conversion percentage.

The Delta State Statesmen must be the best 1-2 team in the nation. They have a huge offensive line and gave Top 10 teams tough games over the past two weeks. Statistically, DSU is doing very well in most categories having a much more balanced offensive scheme than in years past. They average over 160 yards rushing per game and have scored 10 touchdowns on the ground while passing for 3 as the offense averages over 440 total yards per contest. While there are no ugly stats for the Statesmen, two things jump out to me. They are -2 in Turnover Margin with only 3 points coming off of turnovers compared to 16 points from their opponents. Also, on average, they outscore teams in the first half of games but are getting outscored in the second half.

After viewing the progress of these teams over the first few weeks, I don’t think Shorter can right the ship fast enough to overcome the frustrations of a good Delta squad that’s anxious for another win.

My pick: Statesmen by 30

#2 West Georgia (3-0) at Albany State (1-2) @ 7 PM EST

The West Georgia Wolves are back in business in 2016 and several things are going well. The defensive unit has picked right up where they left off last season. They have only allowed 3 touchdowns so far and have held UWG opponents to just 24% in third down conversions. The defense, in my opinion, has been the key factor in the team’s early season success holding their opponents to just 235.7 yards per game (9th in the nation) and 9 points per game (2nd in the nation). The areas to work on for the team come on the offensive side of things and the overall discipline of the team. Transfer quarterback Will Gardner is still getting a feel for his new team and has completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. Yet, he has passed for six touchdowns while their stable of talented running backs have only rushed for two scores so far this season. The worst stat for the Wolves is their average of 112 penalty yards per game (most in the conference).

This game might be close during the first half, but a quick glance at Albany State’s statistics and having watched them play VSU doesn’t show me anything that I feel will give them much hope against the second-ranked team in the country.

My pick: Wolves by 24

West Florida (2-1) at #25 Valdosta State (1-1) @ 7 PM EST

While the competition level hasn’t been stellar (combined record of 2-4 against other opponents), you have to give the West Florida Argonauts credit for putting together the talent to start off their first season with positivity and optimism for their fans. The best aspect of the UWF team has been their passing attack. Quarterback Kaleb Nobles and wide receiver Anas Hasic have won back-to-back GSC Offensive Player of the Week honors and the Argos are fourth in the nation in the Passing Offense and Quarterback categories. They also lead the conference in third down conversions with a 49% average while the defense has recorded 17 sacks (tied for first in the nation). However, the team is -2 in Turnover Margin having lost six fumbles even as the defense has six interceptions. The defense is also allowing opposing teams an average of 277 yards passing per game. Turnovers leading to points cost them their loss last week.

It’s been a bumpy start for the Valdosta State Blazers as the Kerwin Bell era has posed some growing pains that normally occur when a coaching change is made. The positives for the Blazers on offense include the catches by the wide receiver duo of Damien Strange (10 catches averaging 17.9 yards per reception) and Dallas Baldner (8 catches averaging 14.2 yards per reception along with 2 touchdowns), being 5-7 on field goal attempts, and the five interceptions by the defense. Otherwise, there are some glaring negatives in the stats like having only three touchdowns in their two games, averaging a mere 88 yards rushing per game, and having the quarterback sacked 9 times. The worst stat is the 109.5 average of penalty yards in the first two outings (second worst in the conference).

I’m going with the Blazers at home knowing that VSU moved the ball well last week against UNA and just couldn’t convert that production in touchdowns. However, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kaleb Nobles play with passion against his former team and will his Argos to the biggest victory in UWF’s short football history.

My pick: Blazers by 7

#7 North Alabama (1-1) at West Alabama (1-2) @ 6 PM CST

It has been a tale of two divisions for the North Alabama Lions as they opened the season against two rivals, one in FCS and the other in D2. Their stats are what you would imagine after being handily defeated and then winning by a large margin (except that VSU outmatched UNA in several stat categories last week). The largest positives for the Lions are being +4 in Turnover Margin (tied for 9th in the nation) and their 83.3% Red Zone Conversion percentage. An obvious stat of concern would be the meager offensive yardage output as the Lions are averaging just 295.5 yards of Total Offense in their first two contests. The ugliest stat for North Alabama is their poor third down conversion percentage of just 20.8%.

The West Alabama Tigers have been playing some good football despite their record. The most impressive stats for UWA are their 83.3% Red Zone Touchdown Conversion percentage and the fact that they have made 119 pass attempts with no interceptions. They are also averaging over 380 yards on offense and are only averaging 61 penalty yards per game (second in the conference). Yet, they have lost 3-of-4 fumbles and have allowed their opponents to gain a first down by penalty 8 times. The most glaring stat for them is their allowing 11 sacks on Tiger quarterbacks through three games.

I’m sure Coach Wallace will always feel a bit awkward when visiting Livingston with his UNA team because he still has friends at the school and in the community from his time there. But, when the whistle blows it will be all about football and I feel that the Lions have one of the better defenses that the Tigers have faced so far.

My pick: Lions by 14

#25 Florida Tech (3-0) at Presbyterian (1-2) @ 7 PM EST

It’s been a good start for the Florida Tech Panthers as they have won a competitive game against a 2015 playoff team and then rolled over two of the weaker GSC teams to lead the conference standings and earn their first national rankings in school history. FIT has been very balanced on offense averaging 275.7 yards rushing (8th in the nation) and 275.0 passing yards for 550 yards of Total Offense per game (6th in the country). They have only punted one time, thus far, while their defense has produced 9 sacks and six interceptions. The Panthers are also +3 in Turnover Margin. There’s not much to report in the way of negative stats other than to mention their less-than-stellar third down conversions. They have only gained a first down 10 times out of their 32 third down plays.

This will be the first home game for the PC Blue Hose. I expect them to come out with a lot of enthusiasm after three weeks on the road and getting their first win of the season last week. One connection of the two teams is that former Presbyterian quarterback Ryan Singer is now on the FIT squad. It’s hard for me to say that FIT win handily, which wouldn't surprise me, but I do feel they’ll come out on top in this one.

My pick: Panthers by 10

Cumberland [TN] (1-2) at Mississippi College (1-2) @ 7 PM CST

It’s been a rough start for the Mississippi College Choctaws this season. They did open up with a win but have lost their last two games and are already 0-2 in the conference. On the upside, the MC offense is averaging 367 yards per game on offense and have scored in the red zone 6 of their 9 visits. They also have one of the lower penalty yard averages in the conference at 66.7 yards per game. Even as the squad has recovered four fumbles so far, the most obvious negatives on their stat sheet come from the defensive side of things where they are giving up an average of 423.7 yards and over 31 points per game. Yet, the most glaring stat is that the Choctaws have not forced any of their opponents to punt the ball so far this season.

This week MC will face off against another NAIA school at home. Cumberland University from Tennessee just got their first win of the season last week over MC Head Coach Bland’s former team, University of the Cumberlands in Kentucky. I feel like the Choctaws have more talent than this opponent and will get another win in front of their home crowd this week.

My pick: Choctaws by 14