Any fan of the WVIAC that has seen the conference's rise in competitiveness over the last few years has to be disappointed in what happened last weekend. Sure, some of the games were ones we figured to be losses anyway, and yes, there are four new head coaches in the league. But 3-6 isn't a good way to take the next step to two playoff teams from the WVIAC. Out-of-conference record for the conference as a whole definitely helps make things easier for a second place team to slip into the playoffs as a #5 or #6 seed, and with the PSAC going just 7-7 last week, this year had the chance to be a golden opportunity.

Best performances of the week:

1. Shepherd: Maybe Shippensburg won't be that good this season, but 53 points is still 53 points. It's even more meaningful in light of the meager 14-13 halftime lead, once again proving that right now, no head coach in the WVIAC (and possibly the region) is better at making halftime adjustments than Monte Cater.

2. West Virginia Wesleyan: Let's be honest about Millersville. When they face perennial cellar-dweller Lock Haven this weekend, it will be each team's best chance for a win all season. So a 55-3 win has limited value. But, I don't care who you are: when you throw for over 300 yards and six touchdown passes at halftime, you deserve recognition. No offense to Fairmont State's Daniel Monroe, but West Virginia Wesleyan's Adam Neugebauer is definitely MY WVIAC offensive player of the week. (By the way, I have no objections to the defensive and special teams winners: Shepherd's Elijah Davis and Fairmont State's Matt Wilmer.)

3. Fairmont State: Frankly, I still have concerns about the Falcons, but not once did the team really give in and allow Clarion a chance to win the game. Champions find ways to win even when they aren't at their best, and this game was definitely an example. Let's just hope this game wasn't the start of a massive sophomore slump for quarterback Logan Moore.

The week's worst:

1. West Virginia State: I really believed in you guys. But a 34-14 deficit at the end of the first quarter has led me to start giving up hope on y'all this season. All I can say is that I hope Johnson C. Smith is on the road to a banner year in 2011: it may be the only hope that the Yellow Jackets aren't on the way to competing with Lock Haven for the longest active losing streak in Division II.

2. Concord: Where's the offense? I know the Bearbone is tough to prepare for, but when you have the football and an offense that generated so many points last season, you have to do a lot better than just 6 points, regardless of any weather delays. Besides, if anyone gets an advantage from a weather delay, it's definitely the home team.

3. Seton Hill: What's the worst way to start a season? How about giving up a touchdown on the opening kickoff return? Yeah, it doesn't get much worse than that. I really do think Slippery Rock might be a playoff team this year, though, so I can't be too hard on them.

Power Rankings

1. Shepherd: They're still the champions, and they look just as good as advertised.
2. West Virginia Wesleyan: The offense hasn't lost much, that's for sure.
3. Fairmont State: A win's a win, right? Seriously, there are some players on this team ready to take things to the next level.
4. West Liberty: Disappointing, yes. But I see more talent on this team than was shown on the field last week.
5. Charleston: The offense is still working through some issues. I still think Mars Hill is better than people give them credit for, and holding them to 27 points and forcing four turnovers is not bad.
6. Concord: Please have at least 20 minutes of possession time on offense this week. Please?
7. Glenville State: Last year, this team looked consistently inconsistent. This year, I'm not yet ready to change my story. Besides, you need to score more than just 13 points on four turnovers, especially when playing a good team like Carson-Newman.
8. Seton Hill: I don't know what's going on with this team. There's more talent on the roster than the win-loss results are indicating.
9. West Virginia State: Coach Monroe, I thought you were a defense-oriented guy. Am I wrong? I'm concerned...for your team and your job.


All right, enough about last week. Let's see if this week is any better. I sure hope I'll be better than last week: 6-3 puts me behind pretty much everyone and their mother in prognostications, plus it hurts my credibility.

Virginia State at West Virginia State

The good news is that Virginia State was the Yellow Jackets' closest loss last season (34-21). The bad news is that Virginia State may be better than the 2010 edition.

I'm very concerned about West Virginia State's lack of depth at the line of scrimmage, particularly on offense. When I look at the roster, I see no juniors or seniors and not enough designated offensive lineman to make up a full two-deep roster. Add in the 13 penalties (for 129 yards) and four turnovers from last week, as well as the over 600 yards given up by the defense, and things do not look good at all. Ricky Phillips is doing all he can at quarterback, and he did a good job of finding guys to get the football to in the passing game. But he simply CANNOT also be the team's leading rusher if this team is going to be successful.

It's hard to really gauge where Virginia State is this season. They played their usual season-opener against Norfolk State, normally a mid-to-lower tier MEAC team from Division I-FCS. Runningback Antwain Lyde pretty much singlehandedly beat the Yellow Jackets last year, though he didn't look so great for the Trojans last week.

Virginia State is supposed to be better and more experienced than Johnson C. Smith, who managed to win 64-27. Gulp.

Prediction: Virginia State 59, West Virginia State 21

Assumption at Seton Hill

Well, at least Seton Hill bounced back a little bit in the second half. After giving up a 28-7 lead in the first quarter and trailing 48-7 at halftime, the Griffins held Slippery Rock to just a field goal in the second half. It may not mean much, but it's a start.

What we did learn last week is that D.J. Lenehan, just like last season, is the man that needs to be starting under center for the Griffins; Ryan Morris was wholly ineffective in relief of Lenehan last week. But the real problem is that the running game isn't working. Whether that's because Daniel Butler and company don't have the right mix of speed and power to make it work or because the offensive line isn't giving them room to run is uncertain right now, but it's essential to get that figured out. Getting tight end Zach Delo involved more would help too. On defense, Danilo Bautista and Nick McGahagan are doing a fine job, but other players need to step up and do their part too.

Assumption started last season hot, including a win over Division I-FCS Fordham, but faded down the stretch. Most of their star players from last year graduated, which really showed in a 28-7 loss to Bowie State. The offense was anemic with just over 100 yards on the ground and just over 100 yards in the air. None of the three quarterbacks (Derek Fernandes, Sean Mayo, and Kevin Bumpus) really took charge of the game last week as the Greyhounds also committed five turnovers. Mayo hurt his ankle last week and may not play Saturday. The defense was a little better, particularly at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, with LB Nick DiAntonio, DE Nick Haag, and S Dan Conrad being the players to especially watch out for there.

Seton Hill has more experience all around the roster than Assumption, and that should come out in this game if the Griffins can give Lenehan time to throw the football and open up more running lanes. Coming out with a good game plan will be critical as well to what should be a successful day for Seton Hill.

Prediction: Seton Hill 24, Assumption 14

Fairmont State at West Virginia Tech

Okay, I'm going to try to get this one over with. For some reason, the Falcons are heading down I-79 a couple hours, then southeast from Charleston to play in Montgomery, West Virginia at a school that decided to leave Division II and has failed twice to get back in. Seriously, Fairmont State, is this the best you could do schedule-wise?

I'll give Logan Moore a one-game pass on last week's poor showing in the air. I'll even chalk up the number of penalties to the fact that it was the first game of the season (which seemed to be a theme among almost all the WVIAC teams last week). I'm still concerned about the Falcons' run defense, though.

How low has West Virginia Tech sunk in recent years? Having not won more than three games since 2002, the Golden Bears stooped to the level of scheduling Wright State this year, which doesn't sound bad until you learn that they're a club team. It gets worse when you learn that, midway through the third quarter, they were only up 6-0 (I'm not sure if they finished the game or if that game, like many others in the general region of the country, was called on account of weather). Runningback Akeem Point accounted for nearly all of the Golden Bears' offense last week, as quarterback Michael Brumfield didn't show much effectiveness.

This is the kind of game that shows part of why, despite WVU Tech's two attempts to move back up to Division II, the WVIAC hasn't shown any indication of interest in having them rejoin the conference, extending the invitation instead to Virginia-Wise, who has yet to apply to the NCAA. Glenville State handled the Golden Bears easily last year, and Fairmont State is definitely a better team than the Pioneers were in 2010. The Falcons can name the score in this one. P.S. Coach Lopez, try not to talk too loud during your halftime break: you don't want to give all your halftime adjustments away to the nearby fans as you huddle around picnic tables just off the field.

Prediction: Fairmont State 49, West Virginia Tech 7

Concord at Elon

I hope Concord enjoys the payout for this game because this one won't be much better than last week.

Fortunately, Elon runs a more conventional offense than Lenoir-Rhyne, so the defense may actually be a little bit better prepared. Still, whenever there's a matchup against a Division I-FCS team, it means that the visitor (read as: underdog) will have a significant size and depth disadvantage. Elon knows what this is like: they lost 45-14 at Vanderbilt last weekend despite matching the Commodores' offensive output. The Phoenix have lost some talend to graduation and may not be as strong as in recent years, but quarterback Thomas Wilson still looked pretty good given the competition and had a clear favorite target in WR Aaron Mellette. The real problem last week was three turnovers that made a big difference in terms of field position.

Hopefully, quarterbak Zack Grossi and runningback Brian Kennedy can get the offense back on track this week, but a win is just too much to expect.

Prediction: Elon 42, Concord 13

Glenville State at #11 North Alabama

Does Glenville State have any chance of heading to the site of the Division II national championship game and upsetting the Lions?

In one word, no.

In more words, not without some major improvements from last week and multiple big mistakes by North Alabama. As I said at the outset, quarterback Darold Hughes did not look good in the middle of the game and was even replaced by backup Steffen Colon late in the game (who proceeded to throw for 115 yards and a touchdown). Clearly, Hughes SHOULD be the starter, but he needs to stop lobbing up short passes. If the passing game can be a real threat, then Joe Mesadieu has the chance to break off some big runs. Defensively, the Pioneers simply need to make adjustments better: Glenville State was fine as long as Carson-Newman was turning the ball over, but when they changed quarterbacks, the defense could do almost nothing about it.

North Alabama returns the same skill players that lit up the Pioneers last season. Quarterback Lee Chapple is back, as is runningback Antwan Ivey. The Lions held Central Oklahoma's running game in check, forcing the Bronchos to get pass-happy (to the tune of 71 passes, completing 41 of them for over 350 yards). One thing the Lions have not done well, though, is pressure opposing quarterbacks, which Central Oklahoma had limited success in taking advantage of last week.

North Alabama may give Glenville State early opportunities to stay close, just like they did in last year's game. But at some point, something will kick in, and the home team will run with the football game.

Prediction: North Alabama 52, Glenville State 14

#7 Shepherd at Saint Joseph's

There's only one reason this game is happening at all: Saint Joseph's came out to Shepherdstown last year, so the Rams have to head to Rensselaer, Indiana, this year. That's it. Neither team will really benefit from this game being played.

Listening to last week's game against Shippensburg, it was pretty clear to me that the Rams were not preapred for the Raiders to play a spread offense. But after halftime, that changed, and Shippensburg was pretty much stopped cold the rest of the game. The offense has been what we've expected: a lot of running with some well-timed passes. Bobby Cooper looked very much like Kevin Clancy last week, and in my mind, that's definitely a compliment. Michael Haynes looked like a solid #2 runningback behind Tommy Addison. Elijah Davis added strength to an already solid backfield and may have to be mentioned in the same breath as Corey Washington and Keon Robinson from here on out. Special teams were less than special last week, though, so not everything is in top shape for Shepherd.

The Pumas have a lot of new faces on their roster, and that goes beyond (once again) the head coach. Quarterback Billy VandeMarkt is one of the few returning starters for Saint Joseph's, and he was pretty good against Ohio Dominican last week, throwing for over 300 yards (though over half of those were to one receiver: Alphonso Hines). But his team failed to establish the run and had major struggles stopping the run, giving up over 250 yards on the ground to an average Ohio Dominican team in a loss.

If the back seven continue to be Shepherd's strength on defense and Saint Joseph's continues to be unable to establish the run, the home fans are in for a long day and a huge dose of Tommy Addison and friends. Don't be surprised if Bobby Cooper is able to tuck the football and run more than usual this week, and don't be surprised with either another shutout like last season or a couple scores for the home team as the younger players on the roster get some playing time.

Prediction: Shepherd 55, Saint Joseph's 14

Urbana at Charleston

Defensively, both of these teams have something to prove. It's just that one of them had a much nicer looking number opposite them on the scoreboard than the other did at the end of the game.

The Golden Eagles allowed over 500 total yards last week but held Mars Hill to just 27 points, thanks especially to creating four turnovers (though the defensive line still needs to create more pressure up front). The offense wasn't quite so successful: RB Jordan Roberts still has yet to dazzle me with the level of hype he came to Charleston with last year. I've seen Maurice Leak play, and I know that he has the arm to be a good quarterback in this style of offense (which actually may suit him better than the old triple gun did); he just needs more in-game experience. I would, however, like to see more of a change in the offensive scheme to move away from so many deep passes and work in more plays in the flat and even the occasional option or quick screen.

Urbana's numbers looked much worse last week, though. Wayne State scored a school record 69 points on the Blue Knights last week and racked up 569 total net yards, numbers that are reflective of how much defensive talent Urbana lost to graduation from last season. What Urbana does still have are two good quarterbacks: D.J. Mendenhall and Evan Gehlert. Both of them have good accuracy and timing, especially when throwing to Matt Hightower and Joe Webb. The Blue Knights didn't have much of a running game last week and committed five turnovers, both of which are things I've seen as patterns over the last couple years with Urbana.

If Leak can throw the football effectively and Urbana can protect the football, this game has the makings of a shootout. But those are two big ifs. Leak should have time to find his targets, and Roberts may more easily be able to find running room against a softer defense. But the big difference will be Urbana's turnover problems, which look to me to be more than just a one-game issue.

Prediction: Charleston 45, Urbana 38

Southern Connecticut State at West Liberty

After losing one in-region game last weekend, the Hilltoppers can't afford to start the season 0-2 if they hope to have any chance of making the playoffs.

But to me, last week's performance from West Liberty didn't look like that of a team ready to be Shepherd's toughest contender for the conference title. During the offseason, we heard plenty about quarterback L.D. Crow. But Crow didn't really look comfortable against Edinboro, missing receivers and just not getting in a rhythm. We may have seen the end of the focus on the vertical passing game from Hilltoppers too, and that could be an adjustment. The running game didn't help him either, and Brandon Davis just needs to help Crow out more. Worst of all was special teams: miscues there gave away field position to Edinboro.

Southern Connecticut State also had its troubles last week, losing 35-21 to Division I-FCS Central Connecticut State. The Owls trailed 28-0 at halftime, though, and really controlled the second half. There's plenty of experience returning, especially at the skill positions on offense: QB Kevin Lynch threw for 376 yards against West Liberty last season and is back under center again, as are RB Rashad Slowley (a bad last name for a runningback) and WR Andre Privott.

One item of note from last year's matchup: West Liberty admitted, after their win, that the Owls gave them trouble becuase of their physicality. Those key players are back for Southern Connecticut State, but the major players that allowed West Liberty to pull off the win (Calhoun, Amedro, Travis) aren't. That looks like trouble to me. The Hilltoppers' secondary will definitely be tested this week as West Liberty is still trying to figure itself out on offense. The talent is there, but it may still be too early in the season for it all to come together quite yet.

Prediction: Southern Connecticut State 28, West Liberty 20

Game of the Week
West Virginia Wesleyan at Bentley

Millersville wasn't much of a challenge. Neither was Division III SUNY-Maritime. But these teams are very evenly matched in a game that will go a long way toward determining whether there's a playoff contender in this matchup.

It's hardest to learn anything about a team in a blowout game, regardless of who wins. So, I'm not sure how accurate this perception is, but I don't know that West Virginia Wesleyan is anywhere near as good on the ground as they were last season. At halftime, QB Adam Neugebauer dominated the offense. In the second half, it was RB Keith Dickens who was accounting for much of the yardage, notching over 100 net yards on the day. How will he fare against a tougher defense? Frankly, I have no idea, just like how I really don't know how good West Virginia Wesleyan's defense really is yet.

Bentley held SUNY-Maritime to 69 total yards in a 50-3 blowout win of their own last week. It's worth considering that SUNY-Maritime went 10-0 last year and made it to the Division III playoffs, but that doesn't mean anything as far as this season. The Falcons have a balanced offensive attack from QB Bryant Johnson and a number of receivers as well as runningbacks Bobby Tarr and Lorenzo Warren. Bentley was primarily able to score on individual big plays rather than sustained drives, so the Bobcats may be well-served to play back a little bit on defense and keep the football in front of them rather than try to make too many big plays of their own.

With two experienced teams taking the field that are both balanced all around, this game can easily go either way and should be a very close contest. I wouldn't be surprised if, given the lenghty road trip, the Bobcats start slowly and even fall behind. But the front seven for West Virginia Wesleyan look better prepared to pressure Johnson and the Bentley offense, and that can lead to long third down situations and turnovers. That's where the Bobcats will take advantage, finish strong, and continue to prove to everyone else that their 9-2 record in 2010 still was not a fluke.

Prediction: West Virginia Wesleyan 34, Bentley 30


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