We're a third of the way through the season, and I think you can pretty clearly put the WVIAC teams into four groups:

The conference title contenders:
Shepherd and West Virginia Wesleyan

I'm expecting both of them to win this weekend, setting up the showdown in Buckhannon on October 8 as the de facto conference championship game. It's clear to me that these two teams have what it takes to make it to the playoffs, and I would not be surprised to see them both there. Yes, there's a lot more to it than that (don't worry, I'll talk about fun acronyms like OAWP as we get closer to the regional rankings being released), but I could definitely see one of these teams at 11-0 and the other at 10-1. It's hard to be kept out of the playoffs (though not impossible: just ask Carson-Newman) with only one loss.

Within range of the conference crown:
Concord, Fairmont State, Glenville State

Forget Glenville State's three non-conference losses: nobody's going to say anything bad about the North Alabama loss, and UNC Pembroke and Carson-Newman are good teams. Fairmont State's experience is definitely coming through, which sounds strange when you consider that Logan Moore is just a sophomore. Concord is probably the best of the lot (and sits at 2-0 in conference play, though those wins were over Charleston and West Virginia State), especially given that Lenoir-Rhyne is looking pretty legit. None of these three looks to me to have the consistency to topple Shepherd AND West Virginia Wesleyan, but upsetting one of the two is possible.

Down and out:
Charleston and West Liberty

When these two face off later this season, don't look for too many points. The defenses have been okay (though not great), but it's clear the offenses are dragging down their entire teams. Charleston is simply young, and West Liberty's transfer experiment looks like, at least for this season, a failure. Any hopes of winning the conference title are basically gone, so preparing for next season now is probably the best these teams can hope for since even finishing with a winning record looks to be out of reach.

The bottom of the barrel:
Seton Hill and West Virginia State

Undermanned and overmatched describes these two teams to a T. They've taken some blowout losses and look very unlikely to win more than one game. This doesn't mean that Seton Hill and West Virginia State have no good players, just that each team has far too many holes not to have weaknesses that other teams can exploit every week for the rest of the season. Given that the Griffins and Yellow Jackets both struggled greatly last year as well, both of these programs could stand to do serious self-examination to get their programs back to being competitive again.


Charleston (0-4, 0-2) at Fairmont State (3-1, 1-1)

Here's a key statistic for the Golden Eagles: they have been outscored 128-24 so far this season in the second and third quarters combined. The problem is still the same as last week: the offense needs to be more than just Jordan Roberts (who was unimpressive outside of two big plays last week against Shepherd). Maurice Leak is still the best quarterback on the roster, but something's still missing, and I can't figure out what it is.

Fairmont State could have fallen apart after losing to Glenville State. Instead, they bounced back and got stronger as the game went on in a comfortable win at West Liberty. The running game is still missing (Daniel Monroe was doing more at the beginning of the season than in the last week or two), and I'm not sure about the defense, but I'll give the Falcons a pass on those for now. The fact is, Fairmont State's greater experience, along with having a smart quarterback in Logan Moore, will make all the difference.

Prediction: Fairmont State 34, Charleston 17


West Virginia Wesleyan (4-0) at Lincoln (PA) (1-3)

Let's start with this: at least the Bobcats are facing a team that already has a win this season in nonconference play (unlike Livingstone last year). But don't be fooled: Lincoln is still a one-dimensional team that is sitting toward the bottom of one of Division II's weakest conferences. The Lions have a total of 120 rushing yards all year. Look for both junior quarterback Laquan Williams and freshman Doug Cook to see time under center, both of them targeting Philip Jean-Juste and Matthew Coston. On the other side of the ball, the defensive line is the strength, particularly defensive end Tim Green, who already has 8.5 sacks on the year.

Still, that shouldn't be too much trouble for a quarterback who is used to pressure and getting rid of the football quickly. All that Adam Neugebauer did last week was throw for 427 yards in a closer-than-it-should-have-been win at Seton Hill. West Virginia Wesleyan was simply sloppy last week, something they need to sort out as they get ready for Shepherd next week. The offensive line wasn't as strong, though the Bobcats did manage a better running game than we've seen recently. Regardless, West Virginia Wesleyan's defense will be able to exploit Lincoln's weak running game and low-scoring offense and cruise to win #5.

Prediction: West Virginia Wesleyan 44, Lincoln 12


West Liberty (0-4, 0-2) at Glenville State (1-3, 1-0)

The biggest problem of the Hilltoppers probably starts with the offensive line, which has failed to open up running lanes and has provided just mediocre protection of whoever is at quarterback. From there, the quarterback play has struggled, and in recent weeks, the defensive play has begun to drop off. It's simple: West Liberty needs something good to happen.

Glenville State's biggest problem last week wasn't offense: over 500 total net yards, including 100 yard games for Kareem Alexander and Joe Mesadieu, was more than enough to win. But the Pioneers' defense could not do enough to stop the Braves, particularly runningback Travis Daniels, who ground out 147 yards and four touchdowns. This week is a good opportunity for the defense to work on improving against a struggling West Liberty offense. Meanwhile, as long as Darold Hughes continues making smart decisions with the football and avoids senseless turnovers (a category in which West Liberty is near the bottom of Division II), the Pioneers should be able to rack up plenty of points and not have any trouble coming away with a win.

Prediction: Glenville State 38, West Liberty 20


#4 Shepherd (4-0, 2-0) at Concord (2-2, 2-0)

Shepherd has absolutely dominated its competition and has yet to play a full four quarters all season. There's only one team that can beat the Rams from here on out right now, and that's the Rams. But they started to do that last week against Charleston with a number of penalties and fumbles (one recovered, one lost) on their first two kickoff returns. When the second quarter started, the Rams suddenly turned it on and broke the 50 point mark yet again. Kenny Williams has emerged as yet another big play runningback in Shepherd's arsenal, a frightening prospect for other WVIAC teams.

Meanwhile, Concord does pose a greater threat to Shepherd than anyone else they have faced so far. Zack Grossi started slowly but eventually threw for 375 yards in a comfortable win over West Virginia State. That said, Grossi's interception in the red zone was a pretty big mistake, and the defense didn't look quite as good as I would have expected against an overmatched opponent. What has been a welcome surprise has been the performance of freshman wide receiver Ryan Stewart, who had 177 yards and three touchdowns on just seven catches last week. Stewart looks like the frontrunner for conference freshman of the year.

Shepherd's run defense has the ability to stop Brian Kennedy and force Grossi to make difficult throws. The Mountain Lions' offense is too good not to stay close early on, but Shepherd is just too strong for Concord to be able to keep up for four quarters.

Prediction: Shepherd 42, Concord 20


Game of the Week
Seton Hill (0-4, 0-2) at West Virginia State (0-3, 0-1)

"Dave, you're crazy! How can a game between two winless teams be the best one on the schedule?" Well, somebody has to win, and it may be the only win either of these teams could see all season. And the losing head coach of this game has to be seriously concerned about being able to keep his job.

Seton Hill's offense has not been able to move the football. Ryan Morris has been the starting quarterback for the last two games and has failed to find the end zone, something that D.J. Lenehan was at least able to do against Slippery Rock, another good team. In my mind, Morris's starting job is on the line. The defensive front line, along with linebacker Nick McGahagan, has looked pretty good so far. I'm still not sure this team can play for four quarters: the Griffins looked good enough for 50 minutes against Assumption before collapsing late in the game and losing in overtime to a team that they should have beaten. They'll need to play a full 60 minutes to win this week.

West Virginia State desperately wants to end a losing streak that goes back to the end of the 2009 season, and this is by far their best chance to do that. It's clear from last week, despite the loss, that the Yellow Jackets can run (Fabian Payne had a 100 yard game) and pass (Ricky Phillips has played well, all things considered), but the offensive line is collapsing on nearly every play, which is making good offensive momentum nearly impossible. Penalties have been a major problem for West Virginia State as well.

Who wins this game? It comes down to three keys: controlling the line of scrimmage, penalties, and turnovers. Seton Hill, as I see it, is better at keeping the football and controlling the line. Don't be surprised if both teams commit plenty of penalties in this game, but I think the other two factors add up to a narrow win for the visitors.

Prediction: Seton Hill 30, West Virginia State 28