Only four games to go for everybody in the conference, and the division between the top and bottom halves of the conference couldn't be much more evident.

Okay, so it's four games to go for almost everyone. After Concord held off a surprisingly pesky Seton Hill squad by a final of 18-9, the Mountain Lions get to enjoy a week off this week thanks to a scheduling snafu by their original opponent, Urbana. At 4-3 overall and 4-1 in the conference, Concord still has some tough games left: a road trip to Fairmont State (that I'll be covering in person) next week, followed by a trip to the Hilltop to face West Liberty and a home finale against still-undefeated-as-of-now West Virginia Wesleyan. Brian Kennedy, to my surprise, did not play last week, but especially after some rest, I expect to see him in action in Fairmont on October 29.

But enough about the bye team. You want to know about everyone who's playing this weekend. After all, I've (temporarily) redeemed myself with a 5-0 record in my picks last week, so I at least have some credibility for the moment. Just don't call it a comeback.


West Virginia State (1-5, 1-3) at Shepherd (5-2, 3-2)

Watch out, Rams: this isn't the same roll-over-and-play-dead West Virginia State team that you faced in Institute last season. The Yellow Jackets have played four more meaningful fourth quarters this season than they did all last season. Then again, the Yellow Jackets were never close last year.

Still, even if I warned everyone that West Virginia State was a trap game for Glenville State, I didn't actually think the Pioneers would need a fourth quarter comeback to force overtime and eventually win. I'll talk about that more later. All I'll say is that it's all part of the learning process for this young Yellow Jacket team. Experience is often only gained through facing adversity and, well, losing. What I see in West Virginia State is that, as good as Ricky Phillips can be, he can't win by himself. If he doesn't get help on the ground from guys like Fabian Payne, he can't singlehandedly lead the team to a win. Getting some better kick protection for David Wissler would help too: the Yellow Jackets are short one win because of kick protection against West Liberty and had another short kick blocked last week.

But I don't see this one being close. Shepherd won't let Payne get loose on the ground, so it'll be up to Phillips having to beat the Rams' beleaguered secondary by himself. That backfield is looking better, though, after Corey Washington stepped up and played at the level I was expecting at the beginning of the season and returned to the form he showed last year during the Rams' run to (and through) the playoffs. Elijah Davis has been great all year as well, and that has been critical. Plus A.J. Parrish has stepped up at linebacker, which has helped everyone out. Sure, the offense hasn't been as good as we saw at the beginning of the season, but there's plenty of depth at runningback, and that's made Bobby Cooper's job easier.

Shepherd has Bowie State next week: not exactly lookahead material. Shepherd knows they need to win out to have any remote shot at the playoffs (and, at this point, need a boatload of help too), and the Rams have dominated teams under .500 this season.

Prediction: Shepherd 41, West Virginia State 19


West Liberty (1-6, 1-4) at Charleston (1-6, 1-3)

Reality hurts, doesn't it?

It didn't surprise me that West Liberty, who hasn't really run the ball well at all this season, couldn't run against a very good Shepherd run defense. And it's not a surprise that L.D. Crow just wasn't all that stellar. Sure, his total yards were pretty good. But he's added two more pick-sixes to his total for the year. Those don't usually come from bad luck and missed tackles by offensive players. More often than not, those come from VERY bad reads, often in the flat, and speedy cornerbacks. Let's just be blunt and say that the Hilltoppers' offense still is not very good, no matter how much improvement they showed against West Virginia State. If it weren't for a blocked field goal returned nearly the length of the field for a touchdown, this team might still be looking for its first win.

Then again, given Charleston's offensive woes, they'd still probably be favored to get it. After all, the Golden Eagles went from breaking school records in a win over Seton Hill to barely showing up against UNC Pembroke. They had just one first down at halftime. One. Given the Braves' defense this season, that's abysmal. It's hard to see Charleston offensively as anything more than a give-it-to-Jordan-Roberts team. Poor Jordan: he deserves better than this. Maurice Leak looked better than this last year under a system that I thought didn't cater to his strengths. All around, this team just isn't physical enough.

Don't expect a lot of points in this one. At least one of these teams has made games against good competition (like Southern Connecticut State and Edinboro, both 5-2 even if they probably aren't playoff teams this year) looked respectable...enough.

Prediction: West Liberty 21, Charleston 10


Fairmont State (5-2, 2-2) at Seton Hill (0-7, 0-5)

Maybe I spoke too soon about Seton Hill? After all, they did put themselves in several more third-down-and-manageable situations against Concord last week and used the parts of the playbook that they can run with more success. The defense was better than we've seen all season, and even though penalties were still a problem, last week's loss could even be considered a moral victory.

But moral victories still look like losses on the stat sheets.

Fairmont State, meanwhile, had struggles of their own last week with Logan Moore out because of an injury. It was news to me, and I still don't know if Moore will start, but it's clear this is a much different team without him: one that we saw at the beginning of last season. Backup Nevin Honeycutt wasn't bad, per se; he just showed inexperience, which we saw a lot through the first half of last year with Moore. Daniel Monroe had to carry the offense on his back, and the Falcons had chances against undefeated West Virginia Wesleyan: so much so that, I think, with Moore in the game, they could have won thanks to a good bend-but-don't-break showing by the Fairmont State defense.

If Moore is back, Fairmont State wins this one easily: the offense is just too diverse and can move the football down the field better than Seton Hill can. With Honeycutt, even with another week of practice, the playbook will still be very limited. I've seen this offense for a while, not just last season but also by following (somewhat reluctantly) Florida State for a few years. (Please note that I am not, nor have ever been, a Seminole fan: rather, I've been a Maryland fan who has kept an eye on Florida State to know how, each year, they'll beat the Terrapins THIS time.) It's a tough offense to learn, and that gives Seton Hill a chance since they don't typically score many points. Seton Hill could make this one interesting enough to earn another one of those moral victories this week. Just not a real one.

Prediction: Fairmont State 38, Seton Hill 7 (with Moore); Fairmont State 20, Seton Hill 7 (with Honeycutt)


Game of the Week
#22 West Virginia Wesleyan (7-0, 4-0) at Glenville State (4-3, 4-0)

Last week, you heard me say that West Virginia Wesleyan would not go undefeated through the three game stretch that ends with this game. So, I'll just give you my prediction now.

Prediction: West Virginia Wesleyan 34, Glenville State 31

Wait, what? Dave, you lied!

Yeah, I guess I did. Then again, the Glenville State team that came out to play last weekend was not the same one I saw in person two weeks ago.

It wasn't just the difference between Steffen Colon and Darold Hughes that swayed me. Going into the fourth quarter, the Pioneers had only a Colston Bayless field goal on the board. West Virginia State, meanwhile, had 23 points. That's 20 more than Concord, a much better team, had all game just a week before. It's not the 3 that concerns me so much; it's the 23. Sure, you can add DL James Washington to the list of defensive studs I ran down last week, but it's still worth noting that quarterback hurries are not the same as sacks.

But all that everyone will want to talk about is Hughes' incredible fourth quarter comeback. Sure, it was terrific, and obviously Hughes was not at 100%, which makes it that much better. But make sure to give plenty of credit to Jordan Griffin, who worked hard to earn a number of those yards late in the game. His is the kind of performance that people will talk about the rest of the season.

Still, with West Virginia State finding success in the air against Glenville State, what does that mean for the conference's top quarterback in Adam Neugebauer? I wouldn't be surprised to see him have another 300+ yard game, but again, it's not just because of Adam; it's because of two stellar receivers in T.J. Benners and Jon Meadows. Mixing in Keith Dickens on the ground was essential to the Bobcats' success last week. The kicking game is still a problem, though: if this is supposed to be a playoff team that can win close, tough games, the kicking game needs to be much better. West Virginia Wesleyan is still committing an awful lot of penalties, and even though they can convert third-and-long with their offensive style much more easily than most teams, they're just making things harder on themselves.

Here's the key question: can Glenville State's front line do enough to force West Virginia Wesleyan into mistakes that can give the Pioneers the win? The secondary is good, but unlike against Concord, Glenville State has to cover two receivers almost as good as Thomas Mayo was last year for the Mountain Lions. That's a lot to ask of any team. If Darold Hughes isn't playing, I have a hard time giving Glenville State a chance to score enough points to win. If he is, he probably won't be at 100% and likely wouldn't play the entire game, and having to rely on Joe Mesadieu and Kareem Alexander on the ground takes away some of the Pioneers' best players.

Whatever happens, I know this: it'll be a very interesting game. But I'm still taking West Virginia Wesleyan to roll along, 34-31.


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