I apologize in advance: when regional rankings come out, I get a little geeky. Please tolerate me.

The first regional rankings have come out, and I agree with most of them. First, here's the Cliff's Notes version of what's important:

1. The primary criteria are Division II wins and losses, in-region wins and losses, and strength of schedule (the OAWP and OOAWP, which are opponents' average win percentage and opponents' opponents' average win percentage, respectively).

2. Other criteria used include head-to-head (definitely used to shift the order of teams), record against common opponents (also used to shift order of teams close together), record against teams over .500, record against teams at or below .500, and cumulative win-loss records of teams defeated and teams lost to. They say records against non-Division II competition are a consideration as well, but I think that's not really true.

3. Note that the old "win-loss record in your last four games" component that helped kill Charleston's playoff hopes two years ago is gone.

With that said, I once again direct you to a whole bundle of numbers that I've been calculating for Super Region 1 predictions. As you can see, they're pretty close right now; in fact, they got #1 through #7 right in order, and #8 through #10 aren't too far off either.

Here is the gory detail.

And now for my commentary.

For starters, my "rating" is just a numerical evaluation based on the primary criteria. The other criteria are listed to try to be subjective, but I haven't figured out how much weight (if any) they actually carry. Unless I know it's 100% accurate, sorry, I'm not sharing my rating calculation at this time.

I can't figure out how Cal is out of the top 10 and how Kutztown has leapfrogged IUP and Edinboro. I know strength of schedule is definitely a factor, and KU hasn't even played against a team that's over .500 right now (and the rest of their schedule, pre-PSAC championship, is 4-4 West Chester and undefeated Bloomsburg).

I'm sure a lot of people are shocked to see Elizabeth City State at #5. I'm not. Consider their two losses: #1 ranked Delta State (undefeated in Division II) and undefeated Winston-Salem State. Those aren't exactly going to hurt, and they really help pump up an otherwise numerically mediocre strength of schedule.

Do Shepherd, Fairmont State or Concord have a chance? It's a little too early to tell (besides, I haven't built my own prediction machine that will test out every possible scenario yet, plus even if I had, I'd need to buy more hamsters to power it). It's pretty obvious that any one of them would have to win out since any more than two losses to Division II competition (remember that one of Concord's losses was to Elon from FCS) won't do it in this overpopulated super region. But then they'll need some help. Can any of the non-undefeated teams realistically help them? Let's see:

#5 Elizabeth City State has two 2-6 opponents left (@Chowan, Lincoln (PA)) before a CIAA championship rematch with Winston-Salem State. Interestingly enough, that rematch will NOT affect strength of schedule since the teams already played, so the win-loss percentage will only count for them once. The Vikings have to win out, I think, to get in.

#6 Slippery Rock is in somewhat of the same position: two games I expect them to win against 3-5 opponents (Mercyhurst, @Gannon) before a PSAC championship likely against Bloomsburg (unless Kutztown pulls the upset). That championship game could give them enough of a strength of schedule boost to keep a 9-2 Slippery Rock in the top six even with a loss.

#7 Southern Connecticut State has two games left: home against 3-5 Stonehill and home against 5-2 Merrimack. They've had close calls the last two weeks, so the Merrimack finale is now guarantee. Stay tuned.

California still has yet to play IUP and Edinboro, so at least one of those three will drop out of contention before the last week of the season. As long as their records are about the same, IUP will stay ahead of Edinboro on a head-to-head win.

Kutztown has to beat Bloomsburg. Period. If they lose that one, they're done. Their schedule won't get them in at 9-2.

Glenville State may not be as high as I have them listed: it doesn't look right to have a 4-4 team that high who has three losses to out-of-region teams. I think that's a spot where I'll need to retweak my formula.

The biggest problems for the final three are in schedule. Look at the OAWPs: 0.3667, 0.3673, and 0.3897. Concord has the best potential for imporvement, but it's not by much with 6-2 Fairmont State this weekend and 8-0 West Virginia Wesleyan in the finale but 1-7 West Liberty in between. Shepherd would be next, getting 4-4 Bowie State, 4-4 Glenville State, and 6-2 Fairmont State. Fairmont State will need more help than the others if they finish out at 9-2.

Here's the bottom line: at most, one of those three will get to some number of wins and two Division II losses. If you're wanting two WVIAC teams in the playoffs, root for any of these teams to win to help WVIAC teams directly in terms of strength of schedule (on the OAWP side):

Shippensburg (currently 4-4)
Saint Joseph's (2-6)
Bowie State (4-4)
Clarion (1-7)
Lenoir-Rhyne (4-3)


I've made this more complicated than it needs to be right now. The bottom line is that Shepherd, Fairmont State, and Concord, if they are to have any chance at all, have to win out. Even if they do, honestly, I don't think things look very good for them.

Finally, what about West Virginia Wesleyan? Obviously, they'll be favored in their final three games (West Virginia State, @Charleston, @Concord), but those first two will definitely hurt their strength of schedule. Should all four of them stay undefeated (which isn't likely, but I'll go with it for now), here's how the top four would shake out from what I'm seeing:

1. Bloomsburg - Schedule strength would soar as long as they beat Kutztown. A loss and no PSAC title game appearance would mean finishing the season against winless Lock Haven, who will torpedo their OAWP.

2. New Haven - Playing at Merrimack will help this weekend. Ending the year against Pace and at Saint Anselm, who have two wins combined, will hurt enough to drop them behind an undefeated Bloom. Their OAWP will still be at or just below .500, it looks like, though.

3. Winston-Salem State - Shaw may be 2-6, but UNC Pembroke is 6-2. Then again, I would not be terribly surprised if WSSU lost to the Braves, who have looked quite good this year and have more offense than CIAA teams are used to.

4. West Virginia Wesleyan - The OAWP would drop to around .416, which would be the lowest of the four.

So, don't get too excited or tense about this: there's still a lot more to come. I'll revisit this next Monday, and I promise it'll be shorter.