Yes, the site that actually has my numbers can still be found here, but with some words to go with them, here are my Super Region 1 predictions with two weeks to go:

1. New Haven (unchanged)

It wasn't easy, but the Chargers finally put away Merrimack to go to 8-0 against Division II competition on the year. With Saint Anselm and Pace remaining (two teams that are each 1-7), things look pretty good for New Haven to hold this spot the rest of the way out.

2. West Virginia Wesleyan (up from 3)

The strength of schedule is actually a little lower than Winston-Salem State's (0.439 versus 0.4529), but having nine Division II wins instead of the Rams' eight makes enough of a difference here. The lesson here: don't schedule NAIA opponents (and preferably not Division I opponents either) if you have postseason dreams.

3. Winston-Salem State (up from 4)

See above. If they can beat UNC Pembroke this week on the road, they'll probably leapfrog the Bobcats.

4. Bloomsburg (down from 2)

The full effect of the loss to C.W. Post has yet to be felt. Now, to get into the PSAC championship, not only do the Huskies need to defeat Kutztown, but they also need C.W. Post to lose at home to Cheyney. That won't happen. Either Kutztown will win and face Slippery Rock in the PSAC championship, or Bloomsburg will win, and C.W. Post will host the Rock. What's the penalty for all of this? A regular season finale at home against winless, hopeless Lock Haven, which will torpedo their strength of schedule. Still, a 10-1 record will get Bloom in, I think.

5. Elizabeth City State (unchanged)

My numbers have the Rock at #5 and ECSU at #6, but after both teams won against similar competition this past week, I don't see the committee switching their spots. The Vikings have a much better strength of schedule, so that must be making a difference despite having a worse record.

6. Slippery Rock (unchanged)

Again, see above. A loss to Mercyhurst would have been disastrous, as would losing to Gannon this week.

7. California (new)

Beating IUP was a big schedule booster, and if they can beat Edinboro this week, things will look even better. The SOS is better than anyone else with no more than two D-II losses (SCSU, Kutztown, Edinboro, Shepherd, and Concord).

8. Southern Connecticut State (down 1)

Stonehill kept things interesting, but all that matters now is the regular season finale against Merrimack following a bye this week. Depending on what happens between Bloomsburg and Kutztown, the Owls may need some help: 8-1 versus Division II competition may not be good enough.

9. Kutztown (down 1)

The home game against Bloomsburg is a must-win. A loss will knock the Bears out of playoff contention.

10. Edinboro (unchanged)

The road trip to California is a play-in game for the playoffs, though the winner isn't guaranteed a spot either. A road trip to East Stroudsburg in the final week won't help the Fighting Scots' strength of schedule.


Within reach:

Shepherd (my #11)

If they can beat a 4-5 Glenville State and a 6-3 Fairmont State, they'll probably be in the top 8. Beyond that, I think they'll need other teams ahead of them to fall, probably in upsets, to get in even at 9-2.

Longshot:

Concord (my #13)

Going to West Liberty this week will hurt the strength of schedule, but a win over an undefeated West Virginia Wesleyan in the final week will definitely turn some heads. Will that be enough? Like Shepherd, they'll need a lot of help.