Normally, I don't have much to say right at the top. This time, I have something on my mind: something that's been on my mind since last Saturday.

I got very lucky last week that I was able to avoid the weather problems that plagued other areas of the northeast and mid-Atlantic. Despite some snow in the morning, conditions were just fine by kickoff, and as the final minutes ran off the clock, the sun even made a cameo appearance. As I've said before, Fairmont is a great setting for Division II college football. It's clear that they haven't been given much room on campus to work with (my friend Jeremy who travelled with me to the game compared it to having a small area in which to build a metropolis in SimCity), and they've taken full advantage of what they've been given. Sure, it would be nice for DuVall Rosier Field to have stands on both sides of the stadium and for there not to be a softball diamond immediately in the background. But when you've done great with what you have, you're better off than a lot of schools are. Just trust me on this: remember, I used to cover the independents.

All that said, what happened on the field last Saturday still bothers me. Not because of what actually happened but because of what very well could have happened.

It was clear in the first quarter that the game was going to be chippy. Ben Landis came out for his second punt of the game. He gets hit, flags fly, and Fairmont State picks up a first down on the roughing penalty. Fine: that happens sometimes. Plus, the offending player was trying to go for the ball, and some even thought he might have gotten a piece of it. Tempers flare a couple plays later on both sides, including some coaching staff, but the referees settle things down. No problem.

Let's go to the second quarter. Landis is out to punt again, and he gets hit again. This time, though, there was contact on the ball first, so everything's fine. A few minutes later, he's out to punt once more, and he gets drilled. Flags fly, 15 yards and a first down for the Falcons.

It's at this point that I start to wonder. As Concord head coach Garin Justice said after the game, "You want your players to be physical and play right on the edge." Fine. But when things start to cross that line, someone, ANYONE, has to pull them back.

And nobody did. Not the coaches, not the officials. The second time Landis was roughed, it wasn't close. The play wasn't on the ball. It wasn't really toward the ball.

What makes this worse is that, in the third quarter, it happens yet again. And this third time that Landis is roughed, it's incredibly obvious that the offender wasn't going for the ball. He hit Landis somewhere around his left shoulder.

Seriously, WVIAC officials, why were there no ejections by this time?????

Finally, early in the fourth quarter, it's Concord's turn to punt. Brad Cox gets off a clean punt, but nobody from Fairmont State made the catch. Why? Because the return man was flattened well before the ball even got to him! Again, it's 15 yards for the Falcons, but by now, does that feel like just compensation?

I drag this story out to make this point: when players start crossing the lines and committing multiple personal fouls (I won't give names, but there was one primary offender on multiple incidents that I've described above.), it is the coaching staff's duty to get that player out of the game. If the coaches won't do it, then the officials have to do it. If you don't have the balls to do that sort of thing, don't be a referee!

In all, the Mountain Lions and Falcons combined for 20 penalties for 240 yards last week. Of those, 10 were of the 15 yard variety: roughing the punter or personal fouls from taunting, non-incidental contact with an official, or a late hit out of bounds.

Someone needed to be in control of last week's game. Nobody stepped up. Thank goodness nothing really bad happened.


The Playoff Chase

I won't dwell on this too much, as I've made my (again kind of inaccurate) predictions earlier this week, but there's one question I keep seeing come up:

What will it take for Shepherd to get into the playoffs?

We're going off the assumption that West Virginia Wesleyan is pretty much in no matter what at this point, which I think they will be as long as they win at Charleston (more on that later). And we know that Shepherd needs to take care of business at Glenville State this week and at Fairmont State next week. But how much help beyond that do they need?

Let's start with Concord. The better Concord does, the more it will help Shepherd in strength of schedule. They're guaranteed to finish over .500 against D-II opponents already, so that helps, and I'd be surprised if they lost to West Liberty this weekend. What if Concord beats West Virginia Wesleyan next week? That could actually hurt Shepherd since Concord beat the Rams 28-14 back in early October, and the committe loves to use head-to-head between teams with the same record (or at least the same number of D-II losses, which they would have). So, maybe you want Concord to win this week but lose to a (presumably) 11-0 West Virginia Wesleyan.

Southern Connecticut State needs to lose to Merrimack next Saturday. Otherwise, the Owls will be ahead of Shepherd no matter what.

A California loss this Saturday to Edinboro would also help, especially since the Vulcans will not lose to woeful Cheyney in the season finale. Even if Cal wins, though, their strength of schedule will get hurt while Shepherd's goes up. So, root for Edinboro, but don't get too upset if they don't win: Shepherd could still finish ahead of the Vulcans.

The Bloomsburg-Kutztown game is kind of similar. Kutztown can go to the PSAC title game with a win. If they lose, they are out of the playoff hunt. But even with a win, Bloomsburg is unlikely to go to the PSAC championship. Why? Because they lost to C.W. Post, who owns the tiebreaker on them, and C.W. Post is playing Cheyney this weekend. So yes, your PSAC champion could end up being a team with four losses who has no playoff shot at all. What do I recommend? Wait another week to see what happens, but if you have to root for someone, I'd say go with Kutztown. Shepherd can't pass a 10-1 Bloomsburg, but they could finish ahead of a 9-2 Kutztown or maybe even a 9-2 Bloomsburg.

Finally, there's the CIAA. Even at 9-2, I don't think Winston-Salem State would fall below Shepherd. But an 8-3 Elizabeth City State probably would. So when the CIAA championship happens in Durham next weekend, root for the Rams.

And finally, don't worry too much about what all needs to happen. Crazy upsets always happen in one or two games this time of year (ask Paul Falewicz and the Northeast-10 about how that's gone for them the last two seasons). All I'll say right now is that a 9-2 Shepherd team can sneak in at the #6 spot. They'll need some help, though, and we won't really know what they would need until next week: the Merrimack @ Southern Connecticut State game is probably the most critical piece of all.


#16 West Virginia Wesleyan (9-0, 6-0) at Charleston (3-6, 3-3)

After a surprising win by Charleston over Glenville State last week, this game suddenly became a lot more interesting. I'll be honest: I'm still really not sure how the Golden Eagles pulled off the win, though.

What I am sure about is that Jordan Roberts, at least this season, is the best runningback in the conference and should certainly be the WVIAC Most Valuable Player. Without him, I don't know that Charleston wins more than one game this season, and even that would be tough. After all, Charleston was -2 on turnover margin last week, and the defense gave up over 500 yards of total offense.

Meanwhile, West Virginia Wesleyan has just kept doing its thing. Adam Neugebauer almost proved me right last week, throwing for just under 400 yards before coming out of the game in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Keith Dickens is running much better than we saw a few weeks ago. The defense was definitely better, though I'm not sure how much of that is because of ineffectiveness on the part of West Virginia State.

Charleston has struggled mightily against quarterbacks that can throw the football. And what else would the Bobcats do? This is a critical test of West Virginia Wesleyan's defense, though: playoff teams (like Bloomsburg, should they face them) will definitely be able to run the football, and the Bobcats need to be able to stop the run. If they can contain Jordan Roberts, I like their chances come playoff time. If not, even if they go 11-0, it could be one and done in Buckhannon. This is a big game, but not because of the numbers on the scoreboard.

Prediction: West Virginia Wesleyan 42, Charleston 27


Concord (5-3, 5-1) at West Liberty (1-8, 1-6)

It's official: things have hit rock bottom on the Hilltop.

Actually, they could be a lot worse. They could have lost to West Virginia State, and they could have played an easier schedule (notice how Edinboro, Southern Connecticut State, and UNC Pembroke are all in the playoff hunt at the moment). L.D. Crow could have been completely ineffective in every game.

Instead, Crow has earned back some respect. His problem is that he doesn't have an offensive line that's doing him any favors. Yes, you can fault Crow for horrific reads on his pick-sixes this season. But he has gotten no help in terms of protection or opening up running lanes. He can't count on getting three points when the Hilltoppers drive close to the end zone but stall out because the special teams have been anything but special all year long.

But one thing will get worse: Crow will have to face the best defense in the WVIAC.

At 16.8 points per game, the Mountain Lions have the best scoring defense in the conference. In six conference games, they've given up seven offensive touchdowns. They have the best pass defense in the conference, and that isn't because of aggressive penetration from the front lines, since Concord only has seven sacks all season. If it just came down to defense, this team would still be undefeated in conference play.

But it isn't. Zack Grossi, after looking superb the last two seasons, has still been good, just not as good as we've seen him. It's hard to believe, but Crow has more passing yards than he does, as does Glenville State's Darold Hughes. The offense hasn't been bad, but I was surprised it didn't get the kind of spark I expected from the return of Brian Kennedy on the ground.

Given the ineffectiveness of West Liberty's offense and special teams, combined with Concord's defense, I'm really tempted to predict a shutout. But I can't quite do that.

Prediction: Concord 27, West Liberty 6


Fairmont State (6-3, 3-3) at West Virginia State (1-7, 1-5)

Things don't look great for Fairmont State right now. Their playoff hopes were dashed with a tough home loss to Concord, and they suffered some key injuries in that game. Wide receiver Tim Orange is done for the year after suffering a broken arm, and top runningback Daniel Monroe's condition is unknown after leaving in the second quarter last week and not returning. Team officials called it a foot injury after the game, but there was a lot of athletic tape around his ankle too. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't play. Matt Wilmer was also missed on special teams last week, and Logan Moore still doesn't look like himself at quarterback: it took until the second half for him to stop being so jittery with his feet and really set and thow effectively.

Even so, West Virginia State's problems are worse. The running game was nonexistent last week, as has happened on and off this season. Ricky Phillips had a nice number of yards, and he (like L.D. Crow) can be a better quarterback if he has more of an offensive line to work with, but right now, he's more of a big play passer only, which is going to lead to few completions. I expected better from the Yellow Jackets against what I thought was a somewhat softer West Virginia Wesleyan defense.

Fairmont State's running game will definitely suffer without Daniel Monroe: we saw that last week as Damon Waters and Matt Griffin were less effective replacements. Still, Moore can do plenty with his legs, and he has enough help in the receiving corps to get the job done.

And by the way, as I see it, no, head coach Mike Lopez's job is not in danger. Seriously? A 7-4 campaign, his best in the five years he's been there? This is a program that hasn't seen seven wins in a season since 2000, back when the WVIAC was not at the level it is now. I heard it from folks last year, and he's still around. If you think that Fairmont State needs a new head coach, I challenge you to point out someone who is going to get something more out of this team than what we're seeing now. Lopez told me last season after the West Liberty game that "Now is not our time." He said to give them a couple years. Next year, look for the Falcons to be in the playoff hunt again. And that's it: no more questions about Lopez's job security. End of rant.

Prediction: Fairmont State 34, West Virginia State 7


Urbana (6-3) at Seton Hill (1-8)

Back in 2009, I covered Urbana, one of Division II's independents. They traveled out east to Seton Hill, carrying a 4-5 record with them. Seton Hill, fresh off a playoff appearance the year before, was 1-9. And this is what I had to say:

"Seton Hill, meanwhile, just wants it to be all over, having gone from riches to rags in just one year and having capped off a winless WVIAC campaign with a 48-21 loss to Super Region 1's top team, West Liberty. When your best defensive performance of the year is giving up only 348 yards in a 23-17 loss to a 2-7 West Virginia State team, that's a sign of trouble. The Griffins are 144th in both total and scoring defense in Division II, and the offense hasn't been good enough to make up for it."

Back then, I felt like the Griffins had just given up on the season. And sure enough, Urbana won easily, 30-14, as the Blue Knights matched their best record in program history at 6-5.

Now, they're out to set another record, and they're back in Greensburg. D.J. Mendenhall has proven himself to be a true dual threat quarterback who can scramble effectively to throw it to guys like Jerrell Leak. The defense isn't where it used to be, but it was plenty good enough to hold Charleston in check earlier this season, the same Charleston team that set new school records on offense in their win over Seton Hill earlier this season.

Gulp.

Okay, the news isn't all bad. After all, Seton Hill came out with plenty of fight last week and may not have established the run but did prove this: they have two about equally capable quarterbacks. D.J. Lenehan got the start last week and looked just as effective as Ryan Morris had before. The defense bent but didn't break.

Still, Urbana is clearly a much better team with far more offensive firepower than West Liberty. Not much more needs to be said.

Prediction: Urbana 42, Seton Hill 20

Game of the Week
Shepherd (7-2, 4-2) at Glenville State (4-5, 4-2)

Unfortunately, Glenville State's playoff hopes were, once again, probably over in September. But again, they have a chance to play spoiler in what has become quite a WVIAC rivalry.

It's hard to really take much from the Rams' win last week over Bowie State: just look at the pictures from the game and you can see why. Frankly, I'm impressed that Shepherd was able to, for the eighth time this season, break the 35 point mark given those conditions. Still, early game turnovers and sloppiness are becoming too much of a pattern for the Rams, who have managed to overcome those problems by playing outstanding football every second half this season (except for that one down in Athens, but even there, it was better than the first half). Bowie State's passing game is, honestly, inept, but five interceptions and allowing just four completions is still very impressive.

The Pioneers, meanwhile, are going back to their inconsistent ways of last season. This time, it was a largely a big defensive letdown that allowed Charleston to put 46 points on the board. How did it happen? I didn't see the game, but I'll offer this theory. Glenville State will create lots of pressure at the line of scrimmage, but the end result is that it can lead to overpursuing the quarterback and opening up running lanes. And who burned Glenville State all day? (I'll give you a hint: it wasn't quarterback Maurice Leak, though his legs did do some good work.) Against a team that will run the football very effectively like Shepherd will, the Pioneers need to stay at home more on defense and then bring their defensive intensity.

Just because Glenville State lost last week doesn't mean that the Pioneers are ripe for the picking: Shepherd will definitely have its hands full in a series where the Pioneers have won the last four in a row. Shepherd has enough players that have seen all four of those losses in person, and with playoff aspirations on the line, you can bet they won't let the streak go to five. Glenville State doesn't have a top-notch offense like West Virginia Wesleyan or a best-in-conference defense like Concord. Don't get me wrong: they're good. But it takes elite to beat this Shepherd team, especially now.

Prediction: Shepherd 29, Glenville State 27


Comments? Questions? Cheers? Jeers? Drop a comment in the box below. And follow me on Twitter @Byko. I may be at home this weekend for a much-needed rest, but I'll still be following the WVIACtion online and tweeting as things get interesting.