Can we officially say the WVIAC is down now?

Some of it is stuff we should have seen coming. Anyone who really thought West Virginia Wesleyan was deserving of its #3 ranking in the coaches' poll was kidding themselves. West Liberty didn't have much of anything to build on from last season. Some of the usual also-rans are, well, usual. And Glenville State has continued to be predictably unpredictable.

And then there are the unexpected moments, like the end of Zach Grossi's season at Concord, the departure of Logan Moore from Fairmont State, and the various issues plaguing Shepherd (not to mention the fact that yes, Shippensburg really WAS that good, which is why they've been on my top 25 ballot for three weeks straight).

The fact that Charleston has been able to take advantage, however, should not be one of those surprises. Here was a team that finished last season on a tear, upset a good West Virginia Wesleyan squad, and built on that momentum coming into this year. Bad luck with injuries meant that John Knox, not Maurice Leak, was under center for the Golden Eagles' biggest game of the season yet. And the experience difference from freshman to junior may be the reason why Charleston is 3-1.

That said, don't give up on UC yet. Look at the schedule, and you'll see the rest of the conference games are quite winnable, with the road trip to Glenville State on October 27 being the most interesting. Perhaps more critical, though, could be the trip to a 3-1 UNC Pembroke squad in two weeks. A win there could be a critical strength-of-schedule bonus, even if the Braves are out of region, and at 10-1, it would be hard to leave Charleston out in the cold unless things misalign very badly.

So don't quite crown Shepherd the final WVIAC football champions yet. We're only almost one month into the season, and as the worst fortune cookie fortune says, we most definitely live in interesting times.


Fairmont State (1-3) at Charleston (3-1)

Give Ryland Newman some kind of award because what he did last week is something you don't see outside of 1A or six/eight/nine-man high school football, let alone college football. With Shad Alexander, Daniel Monroe, and Collin Alford all sidelined with injuries, Newman played both ways in the Falcons' 25-20 win over West Liberty in a game that involved a new school record for passing attempts as well as a giant step backward for the Hilltoppers. At least Bobby Vega was good to go last week, and this week will likely have to be the same story for the visitors.

The problem, though, is that Charleston's pass defense is much better than West Liberty's. Despite the loss, the Golden Eagles held Shepherd to under 100 yards in the air on the day and forced the Rams to beat them on the ground, something they haven't come anywhere close to doing all season. Charleston kind of beat itself in repeatedly going to the outside passing game, which made it easier for Shepherd to notch a pick-six that more than made the difference in the outcome.

Fairmont State's defense finally stepped up last week, but going up against Charleston is simply going to be too much for the banged-up Falcons, not to mention that having to go back on the road for the fourth time this month won't make it any easier.

Prediction: Charleston 34, Fairmont State 14


West Virginia State (1-3) at Seton Hill (0-4)

For the second week in a row, I ran for more net yards (this time while on vacation last weekend) than Seton Hill did. The story's the same: the offensive line is not opening holes for the runningbacks or giving sufficient protection to quarterback Ryan Morris, who clearly deserves a better fate than he's getting. The fact that he had a chance to beat Urbana is still pretty remarkable to me, but we'll touch on that again a little later. Seton Hill's defense hasn't proven anything either: they're allowing 42 points per game on average. Once again, putting it all on your quarterback's shoulders is a road to disaster.

At least that's something we're not seeing out of West Virginia State this season. Ricky Phillips gave the Yellow Jackets a chance to upset the defending conference champions, and while he could have used more help from LeFloyd Phillips (Aubura Taylor was okay, so I won't say anything about him), the real problem is simply the lack of depth on the roster, not to mention the fatigue you'd expect after playing back-to-back FCS opponents. Even though they lost, do you think West Virginia State is feeling like they've got a shot to win this week in their last conference game against Seton Hill? No question about it. After all, they did it last year, and that was with a long losing streak on their backs.

Prediction: West Virginia State 31, Seton Hill 20


Urbana (3-1) at West Virginia Wesleyan (1-3)

I started out the year thinking the visiting Blue Knights were going to be a force with which to be reckoned in the Mountain East Conference next year. I thought Seton Hill had found another gear in nearly beating Urbana in week two. Then Central State beat the Blue Knights, and equally woeful Quincy almost did the same.

I seriously don't understand it. I've seen what QB D.J. Mendenhall can do as a dual threat quarterback for Urbana. I've seen what David Hill and Jeffvon Gill can do on the ground. I've watched the Urbana offensive line open up big holes. Sure, the defense has some issues, but the offense should be able to do much better than 14 points against a team that was a bad NAIA squad last year and 22 points against Central State, right? Last week's offensive output was just 81 yards on the ground and 122 in the air for Urbana. And that was even at home! They managed more than double that on the road the week before and lost!

Of course, just as much of a mystery to me are the Bobcats. Again, there's nothing much to say about the ground game: 83 yards in all, led by 43 from Chase Blackwell on five carries. Nate Montana was allowed to play the whole game this time, throwing a school-record 66 passes and even completing 37 of them for over 400 yards. Maybe the real difference was the play of Jonas Celian Brian Vukela on the defensive line and Jesse Robertson at linebacker, all of whom played big parts in Seton Hill's -20 yards on 21 rushes in last week's 41-17 thrashing. However, that was against Seton Hill, a team who has won just one of their last 15 games, some of them coming against opponents that Urbana would handle easily. And that was a Seton Hill team that nearly beat Urbana, a Seton Hill team who is even worse running the football than the Bobcats and nearly got a win on the road. West Virginia Wesleyan clearly has a particularly useful home field advantage, and maybe, just maybe, the Bobcats (who have played far better at home than on the road so far this year) can put together a little winning streak. Too bad for Bobcat fans that next week's game against Shepherd isn't in Buckhannon.

Prediction: West Virginia Wesleyan 31, Urbana 24


Glenville State (1-3) at West Liberty (2-2)

The Pioneers are now finally done with playing football on days of the week that don't begin with S, though for about 45 minutes, it looked like being under the Friday night lights wasn't a problem. Then the bottom fell out thanks to special teams gaffes, giving up big plays on defense, and losing the field position battle in the fourth quarter, and suddenly, a better-than-average MIAA opponent in Lindenwood came from behind to win 28-24. All this proves is that Glenville State is still the hardest team to figure out in the WVIAC, though one thing is certain: this Pioneer offense is pretty darn good.

West Liberty, meanwhile, didn't go quite as far backwards as the opening loss to Catawba, but falling to the M*A*S*H unit known as the Fairmont State offense exposed some huge flaws. Again, the offensive line just isn't working, though this is nothing different from last season. L.D. Crow, after starting to look decent in recent weeks, fell back down to closer to what we saw in 2011. More importantly, knowing that they would be facing a big pass attack in Fairmont State, the defense just couldn't stop the Falcons when necessary. Even if the offense gets going, can West Liberty keep up with Glenville State on the scoreboard? I don't think so.

Prediction: Glenville State 42, West Liberty 23


Game of the Week
Concord (2-2) at Shepherd (3-1)

Revenge will definitely be on the minds of many Rams players this week as they recall the absolutely miserable game conditions in Athens last season in the Rams' first of back-to-back losses that ruined playoff hopes.

Well, after I kept saying it over and over again, it finally happened: Shepherd got down, and Bobby Cooper helped rally the troops to a come-from-behind win, something they needed at Charleston last week to keep 2012 from being like 2011. But this time, it was the ground game that made all the difference. Am I disappointed to see a bad day from Cooper? Sure. But it was still a win, which is all that really matters, and I think it's more advantageous that the defense put in a solid performance and the running game finally showed up. This Shepherd team isn't as talented as 2011's or 2010's, and if the Rams have any thoughts of doing anything in the postseason, they are going to need both the running and passing games working.

Concord, meanwhile, is certainly down but definitely not out, though focusing on building a foundation for the future may be a more fruitful strategy. Calvinaugh Jones is really getting going at runningback and looks to become the next Brian Kennedy. Ansel Ponder is a critical piece of the passing game and can do things to make it easier for freshman QB Albert Rose, who just needs to focus on making good throws and avoiding mistakes. He doesn't have to win the game for them yet, just keep them in it and definitely not lose it. The defense is carrying a heavier burden these days, but holding West Virginia State to 16 points may be a better showing than most people might think right now. They'll need a lights-out game from Riyahd Richardson and the defense to get a win at Ram Stadium.

After not traveling to Shepherdstown last year, I will be back there this week, and yes, I will once again be liveblogging it from up in the press box (not to mention sharing my thoughts on the Shepherd pregame show and on the Concord halftime show). Right now, I'm convinced that Shippensburg's offense really is just that good, and I'm buying a defense that has allowed 23 points total in the last three games, two of those coming against opponents that are going to be over .500 this year (American International and Charleston). Don't look for too many points in this one: look for both of these defenses to be in control on Saturday.

Prediction: Shepherd 20, Concord 10


As always, feel free to email me at [email protected], drop me a comment right below this column, or hit me up on Twitter @Byko. And be sure to watch my blog for the link to my liveblog of Concord at Shepherd, starting just before noon EDT.