If you told me last week that only one of the top two teams in the WVIAC was going to win last weekend, I would have said, "Well, Charleston had a nice run going. Watch out for them next year."

Instead, West Liberty was given a crack and decided to break down the door.

Next week, thigns get really interesting with the first regional rankings coming out (I think), and that means it's time to start paying more attention to what's going on in the Northeast-10 (I'm watching New Haven @ Stonehill as I write this), the PSAC, and Winston-Salem State (since the rest of the CIAA is no threat this year). Maybe I can get some numbers run early next week and give you what I think will be the regional rankings with three games to go.

Of course, if teams don't win, the WVIAC can forget about playoffs. Five games are on this week's schedule:

Concord (4-3) at Liberty (2-4, FCS)

I don't know what to make of Concord's quarterback situation. Albert Rose started last week against Seton Hill, only completed one out of four passes and had one intercepted, and that was it for him on the day as Evin Dusold came in to play most of the day. Dusold did well enough to win, but it's clear that there are struggles to figure out who the man should be "under center" (given the Mountain Lions set up in the shotgun so often). I really don't think the defense's performance last week in Greensburg was typical: they had a bad day and maybe underestimated Seton Hill, which nearly cost them.

Liberty's record may not look like much, but consider this: the four losses are to Wake Forest (by 3 points) and three ranked FCS teams, two of those losses coming by 7 points or less. Once they got into conference play, the Flames' offense has been, well, on fire: over 40 points each of the last two games and tons of yards thanks to QB Josh Woodrum and RBs Aldreakis Allen and Sirchauncey Holloway.

We know how the script plays out in these games against FCS opponents: the greater depth and skill just wears down the Division II opponent time and again. This one will be no different.

Prediction: Liberty 49, Concord 7


Seton Hill (0-7, 0-5) at Fairmont State (2-4, 2-2)

Last week was huge for one of these teams and potentially disastrous for the other. Fairmont State had a big bounceback as RB Daniel Monroe returned to his 2011 form before his foot injury ended the season. QB Bobby Vega is doing fine, but he really needs a second option at wide receiver beyond Matt Wilmer. The defense is really getting a lot of help from Ryland Newman, who has been playing like an absolute stud ever since he had to play both offense and defense after the Bowie State loss in mid-September.

Seton Hill, meanwhile, looked much better on offense thanks to an improved QB Andrew Jackson. But they still can't establish the running game, and the defense just didn't know how to finish things out in the fourth quarter, giving up the lead and ultimately the game. This could be a loss that sucks up any possible momentum the team had or be something for the Griffins to build on, telling the players they can compete with just about anyone in the conference.

I really don't know what to think about this game, though based on how these teams have performed, I'm not expecting defense to win this game.

Prediction: Fairmont State 35, Seton Hill 31


Glenville State (3-4, 3-1) at West Virginia Wesleyan (2-5, 1-3)

We've seen this before: West Virginia Wesleyan had yet another second half collapse last week, this time turning a 21-9 lead on Fairmont State into a deficit going into the fourth quarter and ultimately a 49-32 loss. The good news is that Lavaughn Hughes has turned into a #1 wide receiver for the team. The bad news is that, not surprisingly, the Bobcats' runningbacks and defensive backs have not really improved since the beginning of the season.

Glenville State's offense really woke up last week against West Virginia State. Rahman Lee, Quin Thornton, and Justin Feagin all had big games on the ground for the Pioneers. Feagin came in at quarterback, getting the start instead of Darold Hughes, which explains why the passing game was just okay. Orlandus Harris is the team's top pure wide receiver, but he only had 3 catches for 38 yards last week. With the defense not particularly strong for the Pioneers, the offense will have to work that much harder, both on the ground and in the air.

I'm not sold on either of these defenses, but I am sold again on one of these offenses. Suddenly it may be too early to count the Pioneers out of the conference title race as their most important games loom in the next two weeks.

Prediction: Glenville State 34, West Virginia Wesleyan 20


Shepherd (5-2, 4-1) at West Virginia State (2-5, 1-3)

Not since 1980 have the Yellow Jackets defeated the Rams. There's no reason to think that will change this weekend. Shepherd will be pretty angry coming into this game after last week's loss at West Liberty, one in which the Rams certainly missed players like Dominique Dixon and A.J. Parrish, but those weren't the reasons for the loss, as players like LB Bryan Blue really stepped up and looked good last week. The problem instead was having too many short drives that ended in 3 to 5 plays, something that was the exact opposite of what we saw earlier this season in the win over Concord when there were multiple drives over 12 plays that registered on the scoreboard. Shepherd had almost no momentum from the end of the first quarter until the final drive of the fourth quarter, and then missing an extra point to tie the game up was absolutely deadly: if the Rams tie the game, I really think they would have pulled off the win in overtime. The defense has been strong, but the offense has not done enough to win like they've done in years past.

West Virginia State at least has more offense than in the past, but the Yellow Jackets are all too predictable: Ricky Phillips is going to throw to Ervin Kent or handoff to Aubura Taylor. Stop those two players and you've largely contained the West Virginia State offense. The offensive line is the best it has looked in Institute in years, and that's what's at least giving the Yellow Jackets some chance of being competitive this season. The defense, though, did not do well against the run last week. Remember earlier when I mentioned Quin Thornton's name for Glenville State? I hadn't heard of him either, but he had over 100 yards on just 5 carries last week. That's not good.

Shepherd's lack of offense could keep the Yellow Jackets in this one for longer than most would expect, but surely the Rams will bounce back this week, right?

Prediction: Shepherd 27, West Virginia State 7


Game of the Week
Charleston (6-1, 3-1) at West Liberty (4-3, 3-2)

While watching WLTV's broadcast of the Shepherd-West Liberty game, I laughed as Reid Amos talked about how a win for West Liberty would keep the Hilltoppers in the hunt for the WVIAC title. Well, it's no joke anymore, and this time, instead of watching the Hilltoppers on a computer screen at home, I'll be watching (and liveblogging, of course) them from the press box at Russek Field in person.

Despite an absolutely horrible opening week loss to Catawba and a very ugly, one-point win over Virginia State (a team that, shockingly, could be the best in the CIAA North Division), the Hilltoppers are actually very close to being a 6-1 team. What happened over the past month? Defense has made the difference. Even in the bad games, the Hilltoppers haven't been lit up on the scoreboard, giving up no more than 25 points in any game. Players like Marco Ricchetti have really made a difference for a defense that nobody expected to be this good early in the season. The offense has had plenty of growing pains, but when he has time to throw, QB Dylan Lagarde has looked good the last two weeks, better than L.D. Crow had, and RB Kenjay Trueblood may have been largely stuffed last week against one of the best run defenses in the country, but he should have more room to run this week.

Charleston could best be described as "opportunistic," especially with how the Golden Eagles built up a 35-16 lead at the half at UNC Pembroke, putting up 21 points in the first quarter thanks to a Jordan Roberts kickoff return and an Ahmed Shakoor punt return, each for a touchdown. Keep in mind that those two are perhaps the most important players for the Golden Eagles on offense and defense, respectively, though overlooking Hassan Coleman on defense would be a big mistake. On offense, Maurice Leak finally appears to be healthy for the first time in a month, and that will make a big difference for an offense that still looked good despite battling injuries through a tough part of the schedule. Add in the fact that the special teams are strong, particularly Puma Nuredini, the best kicker in the conference, and this is legitimately a dangerous team.

After what happened last week, Charleston won't look past a West Liberty team that definitely knows how to play good defense. They had better not look ahead to a Glenville State team that should not yet be overlooked as a dark horse to win the WVIAC. Look for West Liberty's defense to keep this one close into the fourth quarter, but I expect a well healed Charleston offense to score more points than the Hilltoppers have given up all season and lead the Golden Eagles to their seventh victory of the season.

Prediction: Charleston 30, West Liberty 20


Look for my liveblog coming on Saturday in this space and be sure to follow along in what should be a great game. Plus feel free to email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @Byko.