...but that won't stop me from making my quick predictions of what tomorrow's regional rankings will look like.

1. Shippensburg (10-0)

Clearly, the Red Raiders are the class of Super Region 1 right now. They have a great opponents' average winning percentage (0.530) and six of their wins are teams over .500 against D-II competition. Playing IUP in the PSAC championship next week will only help their strength of schedule, and a win will lock up home field advantage through the first three rounds of the playoffs. By the way, I've had Shippensburg pretty high up on my ballot and definitely ahead of Winston-Salem State for weeks now: they really are that good.

2. Winston-Salem State (10-0)

Of the three undefeated teams, the Rams have the second best opponents' average winning percentage (0.510) and four wins over teams over .500. Like Shippensburg, their strength of schedule will see a boost when they face Elizabeth City State (7-3) for the second straight year in the CIAA championship game. Only a win combined with a Shippensburg loss can give the Rams the #1 overall seed in the region. Sorry CIAA fans, but that's just how the numbers play out.

3. New Haven (9-0)

The Chargers come in with a 0.491 opponents' average winning percentage (which I'll just call OAWP the rest of the way through this post) after defeating American International. They face AIC again this weekend in what I see as a nonsensical Northeast-10 championship game, only it will be on the blue turf of Ralph F. Dellacamera Stadium in West Haven. There's no way the Chargers can pass Shippensburg if both teams win. What makes things interesting is that the regional committee should NOT give bonus strength of schedule points for defeating American International twice: it's in the NCAA's rules handbook (reference to follow later this week). If they don't follow their own rules and give a bonus and New Haven wins, the Chargers could jump Winston-Salem State and move into the #2 spot. Again, this SHOULD NOT HAPPEN, and if it does, I will support Winston-Salem State fans in their right to make numerous complaints against the committee and the NCAA.

4. Bloomsburg (9-1)

With only a loss to top-ranked Shippensburg and a 0.511 OAWP with 5 wins over teams over .500, the Huskies are in good position for a home game. They won't pass any undefeated teams even with a win over Slippery Rock this weekend: the strength of schedule is good but not THAT good.

5. IUP (9-1)

Now it starts to get interesting. The Crimson Hawks are the logical choice at #5 even though their OAWP is merely 0.394 with only 3 wins over teams over .500 (Slippery Rock, Edinboro and Mercyhurst). What makes me wonder is what would happen if IUP loses to Shippensburg on Saturday. I've still got some time to think about that one.

6. Shepherd (7-2)

The Rams did enough to win in defeating Glenville State in a wild finish last weekend. Shepherd must win at home over Fairmont State this weekend: do that, and they are in the playoffs, no question about it. Lose, and it's probably all over. Strength of schedule is very definitely helping the Rams, who have an OAWP of 0.578 (though this will drop after playing a 4-5 Fairmont State team), and if IUP loses, Shepherd could move up to #5. If Bloomsburg were to lose as well, the Rams might find themselves hosting a first-round game as the #4 seed, though that appears highly unlikely.

7. Charleston (8-2)

I'll preface this by going back to how I started my column: I haven't done all the math. OAWP is only two-thirds of a team's strength of schedule: the other third is opponents' opponents' average winning percentage (or OOAWP). It is very close right now between Charleston (OAWP of 0.512) and American International (OAWP of 0.514). Why do I put Charleston here at the moment? For one, American International just lost, and even though it was to an undefeated New Haven team, I have a hard time believing the committee would not drop them for that loss. For another, Charleston has 8 wins while American International has only 7. Many times in the past, the committee has given slight favoritism to the team that plays 11 games over one with a very similar resume but has only played 10. However, Charleston should NOT get too comfortable: playing a poor West Virginia State (2-8) team in the season finale will bring that strength of schedule down. Yes, I think the Golden Eagles do still have a chance of sneaking in the back door of the playoff picture, but they absolutely need IUP to lose and would like American International to lose to New Haven again as well. Even with a loss, I still think a 9-2 Bloomsburg finishes ahead of a 9-2 Charleston.

8. American International (7-2)

It's simple for the Yellowjackets: they have to beat New Haven...and probably get a little help. AIC may be able to finish ahead of a 9-2 IUP team based on strength of schedule, but playing only 10 Division II opponents doesn't really help. The head-to-head loss to Shepherd in week 2 will keep the Yellowjackets below the Rams as long as Shepherd wins.

9. Mercyhurst (8-2)

The win over California this past weekend was great, but with a head-to-head loss to IUP, only a 0.406 OAWP, and only a middle-of-the-road East Stroudsburg team coming up, getting into the playoffs is probably out of reach. That's really sad to say when you're looking southward at a Super Region 2 with about half the number of teams and several playoff contenders with 3 losses to Division II opponents.

10. West Chester (6-3)

Yes, the Golden Rams did lose to Bloomsburg, but there are only three contenders I see for the #10 spot: West Chester, California (who lost to the Golden Rams head-to-head and, with the same number of losses, would be below them) and Elizabeth City State. The ECSU Vikings only have a 0.464 OAWP, well below that of California (0.542) and West Chester (0.531).

At this point, the #9 and #10 spots don't matter, and if the committee just left them out, that would be fine with me. Even if Elizabeth City State does upset Winston-Salem State in the CIAA championship, the Rams will not fall out of the top 6, and the Vikings will not move into the top six.

As I see it:
- The three undefeated teams are locks for the playoffs.
- Bloomsburg is awfully close to being a lock.
- Shepherd gets in with a win.
- IUP gets in with a win, but it would be close with a loss and a Charleston win: still too close to call yet.
- Charleston needs a win and a Shepherd loss to get in, though an IUP loss may be enough (again, just like you'll hear this Tuesday about 24,294,817 times, it's too close to call) but a Bloomsburg loss likely won't help.
- American International only gets in with a win and needs help from probably two of Shepherd, Charleston, and IUP.
- Nobody else has a chance to get in; the other teams will receive the home game version of the 2012 NCAA Division II Football Playoffs

Agree? Disagree? Check out the new regional rankings tomorrow, and feel free to email me at [email protected], comment just below this post, or hit me up on Twitter @Byko.