The big question that everyone had going into the week seemed to be this: "Would IUP still get into the playoffs if (or people seemed to be saying when) they lose the PSAC Championship to Shippensburg?"

Or the Crimson Hawks could hold the nation's top offense to just 10 points and dominate the game 41-10 to remove any doubt for themselves and, quite frankly, make things pretty easy for teams during the selection show.

Honestly, I think it's pretty easy to predict how the playoff seeds are going to go down in Super Region 1 this year, so let's start with that first:

1. Winston-Salem State (11-0)

The Rams came from behind in the second half and had a good defensive showing in the fourth quarter to put away a pesky Elizabeth City State team 34-19. The Rams and the New Haven Chargers are the only undefeated teams in SR1, but WSSU's strength of schedule numbers (0.521 OAWP, 0.508 OOAWP, 0.517 SoS, ranked #42) are better than New Haven's, plus having 11 wins against Division II opponents instead of 10 helps just a little.

2. New Haven (10-0)

The other big beneficiary of the Shippensburg loss was the Chargers, who were a bit slow to start before defeating American International soundly in the second half by a very similar score to the week before: 37-12. Hopefully when LIU Post comes back to the Northeast-10 next season, the conference can do away with this odd-ball championship weekend. Regardless, New Haven's numbers (0.513 OAWP, 0.503 OOAWP, 0.509 SoS, ranked #55) are still plenty good enough to earn a first-round bye again.

3. IUP (10-1)

With IUP, Shippensburg, and Bloomsburg all sitting at 10-1 and pretty close in most criteria, the committee is almost certain to, as in past years, use head-to-head and record against common opponents to primarily determine the order. IUP defeated Shippensburg, who defeated Bloomsburg. Additionally, IUP's only loss is to California, a team than neither of the other two faced this season. So, despite the lowest numbers out of the three (0.460 OAWP, 0.528 OOAWP, 0.482 SoS, ranked #117), the Crimson Hawks should get the #3 seed.

4. Shippensburg (10-1)

How competitive is this Super Region this year? That touchdown catch in the final seconds of regulation to give the Red Raiders a 49-42 over Bloomsburg two weeks ago could have meant the difference between hosting a playoff game and maybe being out of the playoffs completely. Despite the loss, Shippensburg has that head-to-head advantage over Bloomsburg and better numbers (0.561 OAWP, 0.517 OOAWP, 0.547 SoS, ranked #11). Hosting Bloomsburg again at Seth Grove Stadium would be an incredible rematch to watch.

5. Bloomsburg (10-1)

There's not much to say about the Huskies except for the fact that they could have been having to sweat things out today had they blown their early lead on Slippery Rock in a game that wasn't decided until a recovered onside kick in the final minutes. But Bloomsburg, who was looking poised to host a playoff game with a win, will instead be hitting the road, all thanks to IUP, as the numbers (0.498 OAWP, 0.528 OOAWP, 0.508 SoS, ranked #57) just aren't good enough.

6. Shepherd (8-2)

Yes, the Rams get in on their own merit and don't require earned access, which Concord may have needed last season. The numbers (0.552 OAWP, 0.514 OOAWP, 0.539 SoS, ranked #24) are great and make them clearly the best two-loss team. One interesting side note: what looked like a potentially very costly loss to West Liberty four weeks ago turned out not to hurt so much; had Shepherd won that game and finished 9-1, all that might have done for them (assuming everything else played out the same) is earned the Rams the #5 seed and a trip back to Shippensburg to start the playoffs.

The ones left behind (my presumed rankings):

7. Charleston (9-2) (0.491 OAWP, 0.521 OOAWP, 0.501 SoS, ranked #78)
8. Mercyhurst (9-2) (0.419 OAWP, 0.526 OOAWP, 0.455 SoS, ranked #149)
9. American International (7-3) (0.568 OAWP, 0.492 OOAWP, 0.543 SoS, ranked #15)
10. California (8-3) (0.526 OAWP, 0.520 OOAWP, 0.524 SoS, ranked #34)
11. Bentley (8-2) (0.431 OAWP, 0.500 OOAWP, 0.454 SoS, ranked #151)
12. Concord (7-3) (0.571 OAWP, 0.502 OOAWP, 0.548 SoS, ranked #9)
West Chester (7-3) (0.509 OAWP, 0.522 OOAWP, 0.513 SoS, ranked #49)
Chowan (6-3) (0.389 OAWP, 0.473 OOAWP, 0.417 SoS, ranked #162)


Now you may be wondering why I listed all of these teams with three losses here that had no shot at getting into the playoffs. Let's take a look at some of the top teams down in Super Region 2 just for a moment:

Valdosta State (7-2) (0.542 OAWP, 0.543 OOAWP, 0.542 SoS, ranked #16)
Carson-Newman (8-2) (0.515 OAWP, 0.507 OOAWP, 0.512 SoS, ranked #50)
Miles (8-2) (0.421 OAWP, 0.502 OOAWP, 0.448 SoS, ranked #152)
Lenoir-Rhyne (7-2) (0.514 OAWP, 0.504 OOAWP, 0.511 SoS, ranked #52)
West Alabama (6-2) (0.519 OAWP, 0.542 OOAWP, 0.527 SoS, ranked #31)
Mars Hill (6-2) (0.482 OAWP, 0.500 OOAWP, 0.488 SoS, ranked #107)

This is your possible top six in the whole Super Region (aside from Tuskegee, who would be dominating atop the standings at 9-0 against D-II opponents and a #59 ranked strength of schedule)????? How can this be?

Well, the answer is way too simple. Super Region 1 has about twice the number of teams as Super Region 2:

SR1: Northeast-10 (9 teams), PSAC (16 teams), CIAA (12 teams), WVIAC (9 teams)
Total: 46
SR2: GSC (6 teams w/Shorter), SIAC (10 teams), SAC (9 teams), Independents (2 teams)
Total: 27 (26 if you exclude Shorter, who is not yet playoff eligible)

Does this seem a little bit wrong to you? Does this bother you that we can have THREE two-loss teams that are out of the playoff picture while some of those same teams would be good enough to get HOME GAMES if we just head a little further south?

Back when the Gulf South Conference had all of the Arkansas schools that have now gone to the Great American Conference, things were at least a bit more balanced. Moving the CIAA up to Super Region 1, while not great, seemed okay at the time. After all, there had been (deservedly) huge outcry at a 10-1 Carson-Newman team being left out of the playoffs, which happened mainly because of a DOUBLE bump down because of earned access, where teams ranked below the Eagles got into the playoffs for conference representation purposes (I'm figuring most of you understand earned access for this argument; if not, plenty of other people have talked about the subject, which really isn't as complicated as they all make it sound).

The facts are these: Division II football is expanding, and having these super regions with such unbalanced sizes is simply unfair to the entire sport. Super Regions 3 and 4 have much the same issues. I'm not going to dive into them any deeper here, as that's not really my audience, but the numbers are about the same: three 9-2 teams (Winona State, Emporia State, and Sioux Falls) and an 8-2 team (Southern Arkansas) are going to be left at home in Super Region 3 this year, and overcrowding is part of the problem.

The NCAA Division II committee needs to look at this very closely and make things fair and as equitable as possible for all of these regions, particularly as Division II gains more and more members each year. In 2012, a total of 165 schools were Division II members in football, a number that's about 15 more than there were just three years ago (and this number could have been larger had it not been for Nebraska-Omaha strangely and suddenly moving up to Division I, Saint Paul's College having accreditation and financial issues that necessitated dropping athletics, and potential Division II member Lambuth not shutting down).

Please, NCAA, consider making SOME sort of change. Look into moving the CIAA again. Consider moving the Great American Conference over to Super Region 2. Think about expanding the playoffs to 28 or 32 teams. I would say to even look past your regional model for playoffs, but I know that doesn't fit the mission of Division II, so I won't go that far. But please, please, please, do SOMETHING for the sake of fairness. People complain about you enough for the seemingly unfair things you do at the Division I level; don't alienate yourselves from your less publicized Division II base as well. One change could make all the difference.

One game did make all the difference. If Shippensburg defeats IUP, here's what I think we'd be seeing for next weekend instead:

1. Shippensburg
2. Winston-Salem State
3. New Haven
4. Bloomsburg
5. Shepherd
6. Charleston
7. IUP (Charleston's SoS numbers are just simply better)
8. Mercyhurst

Look at that group of 8 teams and tell me you wouldn't want to see that group play out over three weeks of playoffs. I know I would love to see it.