I like scenarios and I hate 'em at the same time. Everything always looks great on paper, every time. You control the variables on paper, which many times are uncontrollable in life. Ever since Monday afternoon, the D2football.com message boards have exploded with opinions, scenarios and facts (I use the term "facts" loosely). It must be regional ranking season. Pages of talk, but only a few people have chimed in with "the games still have to be played!"

But for the GNAC, the games will wait for another day, let's get into the rankings for a moment.

Super Region Three (with conference and Division II record)

1. Minnesota Duluth (NSIC), 8-0
2. Minnesota State (NSIC), 8-0
3. Sioux Falls (NSIC), 8-0
4. Ouachita Baptist (GAC), 7-0
5. AZUSA PACIFIC (GNAC), 7-1
6. Pittsburg State (MIAA), 7-1
7. NW Missouri (MIAA), 7-1
8. HUMBOLDT STATE (GNAC), 6-1
9. Harding (GAC), 6-1
10. Henderson State (GAC), 6-1

First things first, there will be a handful of good super region three teams who will watch the playoffs, instead of play them. That's the nature of the beast. A few "unfair" things have come from the opinions this week. One, west coast football within the Division II ranks is unfair. The GNAC plays against a stacked deck. I hate that argument. I agree with it, but there's nothing immediate that will come of that in terms of change and the NCAA will certainly not make it easier for one far-flung league. It's difficult to have an actual argument about it. The GNAC isn't the Midwest or east where teams can take a bus for an out of conference game. Humboldt flies all day to Texas. Azusa made the all day flight to Grand Valley last year, which was returned in favor this year. Central Washington took what basically amounted to a two-week road trip to Mesa State (Colo.) and Duluth, Minn. in 2009. Didn't come home until both games were played. It's unfair, but that's the way it is.

"NAIA teams should move up!" "Current D2 schools should field football!" That takes millions to do it right. "FCS doormats should move down!" I can only imagine the reaction of a booster when a president or AD says, "We're not good enough, we're going to swallow some pride and move down." I don't see that happening. It could, but 99% of the time, it won't.

Secondly, people want a change from 6 to 8 teams in the playoffs. I've heard this has taken some traction a bit within the NCAA Big Brother machine. But once that's in play, the ninth-ranked team will be complaining instead of the seventh-ranked team as it is now. Open it up to 32 teams nationally? OK, but don't water down the product. As much as I wish the playoffs were a bit more inclusive, I like the fact that the playoffs are difficult to earn. Keep it that way.

Let's get to some scenarios. What a stacked region. You've got three recent national champions in Duluth, Pitt State and NW Missouri. You've got two recent NAIA studs in Sioux Falls and Azusa. No. 2 Minnesota State hosts No. 3 Sioux Falls this weekend. What a matchup, although I don't think the loser of that game affects Azusa or Humboldt unless Minnesota State or Sioux Falls suffers a second loss (and based on the schedule, I don't see that happening). No. 1 Duluth should go 3-0.

In the GAC, No. 4 Ouachita Baptist beat No. 9 Harding, but still has to play No. 10 Henderson State...who already lost to Harding. If they all beat each other and end up with one loss apiece, that's an issue for the GNAC. The best idea for the GNAC is that Ouachita wins out and Harding and Henderson won't be able to overcome their Nos. 9 and 10 rankings.

In the MIAA, it's a bit different to see stalwarts Pitt State and NW Missouri on the bottom half here, but that won't last. Everyone is susceptible to an upset loss, but Pitt State got that out of the way earlier when they got beat 7-6 by Ft. Hays. The Gorillas should go 3-0 for the remainder of the season, but have a couple of traps games against Central Missouri and Central Oklahoma. No. 7 NW Missouri's only loss was to No. 6 Pitt State and the Bearcats have an easier schedule than Pitt State Nov. 1st through 15th, so we'll wait and see there.

Again, these are all likely scenarios. If Ouachita and Azusa really fall off the wagon in November, that only helps Pitt State and NW Missouri and maybe even Humboldt State. So let's get to the GNAC.

Azusa has just two games left. The Cougars' schedule says three, but NAIA Menlo on Nov. 15th doesn't count, technically. We're looking solely at Division II games. The Cougars host Western Oregon on Saturday. Western Oregon fouled up Humboldt State's playoff picture in 2011 (HSU's only loss that year). Western Oregon is a team that always plays spoiler one way or the other and the Wolves still have to not only play at Azusa, but also host the Lumberjacks as well. Win out and the Cougars are in (and hope Grand Valley keeps winning to bump up the Cougars' resume. Humboldt needs to win out, hope Texas A&M-Kingsville wins and needs a few upsets along the way.

There's more to discuss, but chances are with the way games actually play out, none of the above will be true anyway due to upsets or upsets that didn't happen. So let's jump into the games, shall we? It's already been said once here today, the games still have to be played.

Game of the Week
No. 22 Azusa Pacific (4-0 GNAC, 7-1 overall) vs. Western Oregon (2-1, 4-4)


All games are big games, but the games seem to mean a little more when there is less time to make up for them late in the season if things go wrong. This is a team that relies on the run versus a team that relies on the air game. This is a contest where Azusa can inch closer to a playoff berth or Western Oregon can play spoiler. I'm not sure how fun that spoiler role is, but I do know that you play to win whether you're 10-0 or 0-10.

Azusa is one-sided on the offense (you can of course excuse that considering personnel), but has shown an ability to throw the ball as well. Western Oregon is one-sided on offense (favoring the air attack), but hasn't been able to showcase a running game when needed.

Defensively, Western Oregon struggled a bit in holding a solid ground game like Humboldt's a couple of weeks ago as the Lumberjacks netted 165 yards and two scores on the ground. That doesn't shape up well with the Wolves going against the nation's No. 1 rusher in Terrell Watson. Opponents average two touchdowns in the air against Azusa's defense. That could open some opportunities for Ryan Bergman and Co.

This game looks fun, especially with Western Oregon's ability to hang with the top dogs of the league in year's past. I'm going with Azusa Pacific, 27-17.

Simon Fraser (2-2, 2-6) vs. Humboldt State (2-1, 6-1)
Humboldt is fighting for its playoff life here. No way to they let a border crossing get in its way. Humboldt State, 40-20.

Dixie State (0-3, 1-7) vs. South Dakota Mines (0-4, 1-7)
SD Mines is oh-fer in league play, opponents tally 550 yards a game on the Hardrockers and to make matters worse, this is a home game for Dixie State. Despite Mines' difficulty in having any defensive success, Dixie isn't that great in offensive statements. Call me crazy, but we're going with Mines here, 28-21.

Central Washington (3-2, 4-4) vs. Lincoln (2-6)
It's not the greatest year for CWU. But Lincoln out of the Great Lakes Valley Conference isn't that solid of a team. It's also senior day for seven Wildcats playing the last home game of their careers. CWU big, 45-23.