Sometimes, a person can just plain be wrong. It happens. Predicting the outcomes of football games is not easy (most of the time), and trying to predict the nuances that may occur in a football game is much, much harder. We all knew Mother Nature was going to impact both MIAA playoff games last week, and I predicted that she would help the opposing teams more than the MIAA squads, keeping the margins of victory in the games closer than I thought they would be than if they had been played in optimal weather.

Oops.

While the weather was certainly a factor in both games, neither team let it get in the way and both teams won in convincing fashion, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The teams will meet for a rematch in the fifth all-MIAA regional final since the NCAA went to the regional playoff format in 2004. Not bad for a conference that halfway through the season I questioned if there was a team good enough to win the region.

Again, oops.

Both teams have made very good strides in improving their weaknesses since the midpoint of the season, and those improvements were on full display in the elements last week.


Emporia St. 29
Henderson St. 3

The rain and wet conditions most definitely took a toll on Brent Wilson and the passing game. He had his worst game of the year (and probably career), throwing for only 68 yards and two interceptions. Of course, he only threw 14 passes the entire game (completing six), so it wasn’t like he was going to be setting any records in that regard, anyway. However, the rain did little to slow down the Hornet running game, as they gashed a pretty decent run defense to the tune of 268 yards. Landon Nault finished the game with 179 yards, of which 58 yards came on a 4th quarter touchdown run, the game’s lone offensive TD. Even more impressive by the Hornet team was that of the defense. While Henderson didn’t exactly have a high powered offense coming into the game, the Hornets forced six turnovers for the second straight game, and, for the second time this year, held an opponent without a touchdown. The Reddies were limited to 137 yards of offense, by far their lowest total on the season.

Humboldt St. 7
Northwest Missouri St. 54

The Lumberjacks of Humboldt State University came into Maryville, Missouri, riding high after their first NCAA playoff win, where they rolled up an absurd 707 yards of offense against Augustana. I’m sure they knew that they would not likely come close to that number against the best defense in the country, but I also suspect they did not think they would be held to only 48 yards of offense, either. To give that some perspective, the Jacks eclipsed 300 yards of offense in every other game, 400 yards of offense in all but two others, and 500 in 6 out of the other 11 games this year. Going into the game, they averaged 291 yards a game on the ground, and were held to -24. A NWMSU program that has had a lot of success over the years in shutting down opposing running backs added another one to its legacy by holding Ja’Quan Gardner, the nation’s leading rusher, to just 24 yards on 14 carries. Meanwhile, the cold weather did not seem to affect the Bearcat offense much, as Brady Bolles threw for 281 yards and the running game added another 187 to the total, and it could have been worse; the Bearcats had several short fields and built a very quick 21-0 lead in the first quarter to shellshock the Jacks, who never recovered. For the third time this year, the Bearcat defense held an opponent without an offensive TD, as the lone Humboldt score came on a blocked punt return for a TD.

2015 Postseason Awards Watch

Emporia State QB Brent Wilson was one of the two finalists from Super Region 3 for the Harlon Hill Trophy Award. He joins Humboldt State RB Ja’Quan Gardner in making it to the final eight players. Final ballots were emailed to voters on Wednesday, December 2, and will be tallied on Saturday, December 12. With Gardner done for the year and given the results of his lone playoff game, I don’t think he has much of a chance this year. Of the eight finalists, only Wilson, CSU-Pueblo RB Cameron McDondle, and Shepherd QB Jeff Ziemba are still playing. Last year’s winner Jason Vander Laan is probably the favorite, but McDondle can’t be too far behind him, especially if he has a big game against Grand Valley state. Another QB from a school with the initials ESU will probably get a lot of votes, too, as East Stroudsburg State’s QB Matt Soltes had an incredible year. It’s possible that a huge game against the nation’s best defense by Wilson could Garner him some votes, but it is going to likely be pretty tough sledding for the MIAA to have its sixth and ESU’s second Harlon Hill Trophy Winner.

NWMSU defensive end Collin Bevins was named as a finalist for the Gene Upshaw Award, given to D2’s best lineman. It was announced on Wednesday that the winner was GVSU defensive end Matt Judon, who led the nation in sacks.

It was also announced earlier in the week on the MIAA's website that twenty players from the league were selected to the All-Region Team. Curiously, the defensive teams only had 3 DL and ten total players, which likely cost NWMSU DT Brandon Yost from being a first team selection.

Bowl Game Previews

In addition to the two playoff MIAA schools squaring off against each other this Saturday, two others will be playing as well. Fort Hays State will take on Minnesota-Duluth in the Mineral Water Bowl, and Central Oklahoma will be battling their in-state rival Southwestern Oklahoma State in the Live United Texarkana Bowl. The MIAA has looked very good in the postseason thus far, and the Tigers and Bronchos will each have a chance to add to the league’s success this year against teams nicknamed the Bulldogs.

Mineral Water Bowl
Ft. Hays St. (8-3) vs. Minnesota-Duluth (8-3) Noon
Excelsior Springs, Missouri

This should be a fantastic matchup as it will pit the league’s best running team against a program that has historically been very good against the run. As we did with the Emporia State/Minnesota State playoff preview, NSIC Columnist Matt Witwicki and I will be collaborating on the preview for his one, which you can read on his blog here.


Live United Texarkana Bowl
Central Oklahoma (6-5) vs. Southwestern Oklahoma St. (8-3) Noon
Texarkana, Arkansas

(***I would like to thank former GAC columnist Armo Wood for providing information and insight regarding SWOSU for this preview***)

This game will be the 89th meeting between the two programs, a series that dates clear back to 1905, when SWOSU’s first-ever football game was played against UCO. The former rivals meet up for the first time since both teams left the LSC after the 2011 season, with UCO joining the MIAA and SWOSU becoming a charter member of the GAC. The Bulldogs, led by this year’s GAC Coach of the Year Dan Cocannouer, own a two game winning streak over the Bronchos, but UCO dominates the all-time series 59-26-3. This game will be the first-ever NCAA postseason game for the Bulldogs, and the first postseason game of any kind since they won the 1996 NAIA National Championship. The Bronchos are making their second straight postseason appearance, as they were on the losing end of a 42-10 score in last year’s Mineral Water Bowl against Sioux Falls.

The Bronchos come into this game boasting the best offense in the MIAA, averaging 489 yards per game, good for 8th in all of D2. They have been very good on that side of the ball since TJ Eckert took over the starting role at QB in Week 5, and have rarely been slowed down since, making several big plays in each game. They are equally adept at both passing and running the ball, as Eckert ended the season ranked #21 in the country in passing efficiency, and RB Clay McKenzie is the nation’s 7th leading rusher with 1410 yards. He has rushed for over 100 yards in seven straight games and has 17 touchdowns on the year. He’s also added 348 yards and two TDs receiving on the year as well. Across the line of scrimmage, they will face a unit allowing 346 yards per game, good for 46th in the nation. The Bulldogs allow less than 200 yards per game through the air and exactly 150 per game on the ground. Their strength is definitely in forcing the opposing QB to make mistakes, as they rank 13th in D2 in pass efficiency defense. Defensive back Trevon Harfield is ranked third nationally in passes defended on the year.

On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs should have a slight edge. UCO has shown some flashes of solid defense throughout the year, but have really lacked consistency. They Bronchos give up a lot of yards per game (404.5 total, 226.3 pass and 178.2 run) and that has led to a lot of points for UCO opponents this year (27.5 per game). Still, they held Northwest Missouri State, the MIAA’s top scoring team, to their lowest point total on the year, allowing only one offensive touchdown that was the result of an interception return down to the UCO 5 yard line. The Bulldogs have only allowed 14 sacks on the year, which has given QB Marc Evans enough time to be the nation’s 29th-ranked leader in passing yards, and he likes to go to WR DJ Jones, who has a shade under 800 yards and 7 touchdowns on 46 receptions. RB Karltrell Hende is also a weapon running the ball with 771 yards and 11 touchdowns, and can be a load to bring down, so UCO defenders will need to be sure to wrap him up. One aspect of the Broncho defense that has been particularly good, surprisingly, is their 3rd down defense, allowing conversions less than a third of the time.

A decided advantage that the Bulldogs may have is in the return game. Jones is second in the country in punt returns and 19th in kickoff returns. Having said that, UCO has only allowed 12 of their 49 punts this year to be returned, so it may not end up being that much of a factor, especially if the Bronchos are moving the ball the way they have for the last seven games. Still, special teams play can be a huge factor, so I would do my best to keep it away from Jones at all costs. Along those lines, it appears the kicking game is rather suspect for SWOSU, as they have made only 5 field goals out of a scant eleven tries on the year. Meanwhile, UCO has Seth Hiddink, the school’s all time leader in field goals and a three-time MIAA Special Teams player of the week.

Despite having two more losses, I think the Bronchos will win this game in very similar fashion to last year’s Texarkana Bowl, a 48-21 win by Central Missouri over Southeastern Oklahoma St. The Mules offense was just too much for SEOSU, and I think the Broncho offense has a similar advantage. The big difference between playoff games and bowl games, however, is the extra time between games for preparation. It’s certainly possible that the Bulldogs could have some things in store that could negate the UCO offense. Turnovers could keep this game close as well, as SWOSU has a turnover differential of +9 while UCO is at -7 on the year. With the Bronchos’ noted defensive deficiencies, the Bulldogs could get a ball control running game going to keep Eckert and McKenzie on the sideline, and Evans is definitely good enough to do damage as well. That is a tall order, though, especially since it seems the Bulldog offense is not nearly as efficient away from their home field, and with their seemingly bend-but-don’t-break defense, I don’t think the Bulldogs can quell the Broncho offensive firepower.

UCO 41
SWOSU 24

The Super Region 3 Final
#7 Emporia St (11-2) at Northwest Missouri St. (12-0) 1PM

What a difference a month makes. When these two teams met four weeks ago, the Bearcats walked off the field as MIAA champions, dismantling the Hornets on both sides of the ball in a 44-10 thrashing. Since then, the Hornets have obviously put that game behind them and won three straight, including knocking off the top teams in both the NSIC and GAC in the playoffs along the way. They have earned the chance to redeem themselves this week against a Bearcat team that has somehow looked even better the past two games than they did against the Hornets.

The Hornets are a resilient football team. The week after they played the Bearcats the first time, they were in a dogfight in the first half against winless Nebraska-Kearney. A big 24-point 3rd quarter blew that game open and the Hornets earned the right to go up to heavily favored Minnesota State, where they found themselves down big in the second quarter and ended up winning a shootout as time expired. Last week, they overcame the weather and a seven hour bus trip to handily defeat Henderson State. This team just does not quit. They didn’t quit when they were down 44-10 in Maryville a month ago, and they will certainly not quit in Maryville in a few days.

The Bearcats dominated in the trenches in the first matchup, and the Hornets are going to have to do some things to neutralize the advantage the Bearcats have along the lines. In the second quarter, ESU really started to pick up the pace on offense and it resulted in the team scoring the 10 points of the game. I look for the Hornets to employ that same fast-break type of offense to keep the Bearcats from settling in and getting substitutions. I would assume some even quicker passes by Wilson will come into play, too. With it being the playoffs, teams have absolutely nothing to lose, so it is possible that Wilson will be asked to do a bit more on his legs in order to try to soften up the defense. He’s going to need to put the offense on his back, though, because I don’t think the ESU running game is going to be able to do much damage.

The big thing that will help out the Emporia offense is if they can continue to create turnovers on defense and give Wilson extra possessions. Twelve turnovers in the past two games is unreal, and while I find it hard to believe that will continue, Wilson did not throw a pick in the first game, and the only Hornet turnover was the “muffed punt” where a ESU player got too close to the ball and it hit him off the bounce. If they can get to plus 3 or more in turnover margin, the Hornets absolutely have the talent to take advantage. That may prove difficult, though, as the Bearcats are tied for third in the country in turnover differential at +16. The Hornets have done a very good job in creating pressure on the opposing QB during the playoffs, and if they can have that sort of success against Brady Bolles, good things will probably happen.

Over the years, the Bearcats have seemingly hit another gear when it comes to the playoffs. They are only one game in, but last week was a great example of that next gear. The 2013 National Champion team wasn’t exactly dominant throughout the entire regular season, but once the playoffs began, it was pretty clear the Bearcats were the cream of the crop. This year’s team has really risen up in the big games, starting with the first game between these teams. Brady Bolles was on fire in that game, and played very well in the two games since. If he keeps up at that rate, the Bearcats will be very hard to beat this year. They are 24-3 all-time in home playoff games, and none of those losses is by a team currently in D2. While I believe this game will be closer than the first meeting, I think Northwest Missouri will punch their ticket to semifinals for the tenth time in school history.

ESU 20
NWMSU 30



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