When fall camp started at the end of the summer, one hundred and seventy teams began their 2015 NCAA Division II football journey. Every program (even defending National Champion Colorado State-Pueblo) began the season with aspirations to improve in some capacity, whether it be in their respective league standings, overall wins, or even just level of competitiveness, yet, at the end of the year, only one team will remain standing and can claim to be 2015 NCAA Division II National Champions. A little over a month ago, 28 teams were selected to slug it out for the right to that title, and after five weeks of battles, only two remain and will descend upon Kansas City this weekend in the season’s final game. One of those teams will be the undefeated MIAA Champion Northwest Missouri State Bearcats, who outlasted a tough West Georgia squad in a game full of big plays and huge momentum swings, and will be playing in their ninth title game. They will take on the also undefeated MEC Champion Shepherd Rams, who knocked off NWMSU postseason rival Grand Valley State in their semifinal matchup, and will be playing in their very first NCAA Division II National Championship game.

Grand Valley St. 32
Shepherd 34

The Rams lost senior starting QB (and MEC Offensive Player of the Year) Jeff Ziemba on the first series of the game. The Harlon Hill Trophy finalist took a big hit after throwing his third pass of the day and did not return. Sophomore Virginia Tech transfer Connor Jessop came in without warming up, and directed the Rams down the field, culminating in a touchdown with a 25 yard pass to WR Billy Brown. RB Allen Cross converted a 3rd and 10 with big 45 yard run to help set up the scoring pass. The Lakers answered with a big 49 yard pass from Bart Williams to WR Urston Smith on their first play from scrimmage, but the Rams defense stiffened up and held the Lakers to a field goal. After trading punts, Cross again found a seam on a similar play and found the endzone on a 55 yard run to put the Rams up 14-3. After the half, the Lakers scored offensive and defensive touchdowns less than a minute apart to take a 17-14 lead.

The score remained that way into the beginning of the fourth quarter, and then the fireworks really started going. Cross had yet another big touchdown run, this time from 36 yards out to put Shepherd up 20-17, but GV blocked the PAT and ran it back for a two point score to make it 20-19. At this point, I was reminded of the 2007 National Championship game when Northwest had regained the lead against Valdosta State, only to have the Blazers block the extra point and return it for two, and kill the momentum the Bearcats had just built. It seemed like the Bearcats never recovered from that, and I thought it was possible the same would happen to Shepherd playing against one of the perennial D2 powers.

The Rams had other plans, though, and not only did they march right down the field and put seven on the board on the very next drive, their defense matched the Lakers’ earlier feat and added a defensive TD less than a minute later to go up 34-19. After trading another set of punts, the Lakers finished a 43 yard drive with a 3 yd TD pass with 4:37 left in the game. Grand Valley recovered the ensuing onside kick, but were called offsides and had to try it again. The Rams recovered the redo, but could not completely run out the clock, turning the ball over on downs at the GV 25 with 1:32 left in the game. After three straight incompletions, Bart Williams hit Matt Williams with a 40 yard pass to keep the Laker hopes alive. Two plays later, the Williams to Williams connection struck again for a 35 yard touchdown with 38 seconds left, to make it 34-32. The Rams stopped the Lakers on the 2 point conversion, only to be flagged for pass interference. So, with the ball at the one-and-a-half yard line, I thought all these second chances were going to end up biting Shepherd, and GV would find a way to force overtime. Once again, the Rams were having none of that, and knocked the ball away again on the 2pt try. The Lakers could not recover the onside kick, and the Rams punched their ticket to Kansas City a kneel down later.

West Georgia 23
Northwest Missouri State 38

Sometimes when two great offensive teams go up against each other, a defensive battle breaks out (a la NWMSU @ UCM in 2010). In this semifinal, the converse occurred as both teams hit big plays and lit up the scoreboard as each defense (ranked #1 and #2 in scoring defense) gave up a smidge more than double their season’s average points allowed to the opposing offense.

The Bearcats took the opening kickoff and moved the ball at will against the #2 ranked defense in D2, marching 78 yards in 11 plays to go up 7-0 on a 3 yard run by Cameron Wilcox. The defense forced a three and out, and the Bearcats, again, methodically drove down the field to the West Georgia 7 yard line in 15 plays before the drive stalled and Simon Mathieson hit a 24 yard field goal. The Wolves got a first down on the next drive, but fumbled two plays later, and the Bearcats were in business again deep in West Georgia territory. Six plays later, the Bearcats were up 17-0 and it looked like the rout was on. The Wolves finally got on the board with a field goal on the next drive, which was set up earlier by a big 46 yard pass play from Dallas Dickey to Qa Walker. The Bearcats were forced to punt the next time they got the ball, and former-QB-now-WR/P Randy Schmidt had one of the greatest “hidden” plays I have ever seen. When he was lined up to punt the ball, the ball was snapped about six feet over his head and traveled about 40 yards all the way to the endzone. At this point, I’m thinking he’s going to just kick the ball out of the endzone or fall on it for a safety. Instead, he picks the ball up, turns around and sees Kevin Berg close to the sideline. He intentionally sails the ball over Berg’s head, and instead of a safety or defensive TD for the Wolves, the play went down as an incomplete pass. Taking over on the Northwest 38 yardline, the Wolves were again held to a field goal, but closed the gap to 17-6.

The Bearcats were again driving on the Wolves defense, crossing midfield and reached the UWG 24 yard line before Brady Bolles was intercepted with 2:05 left in the first half. The Wolves went three and out, and then they had a bad snap on a punt of their own, resulting with the Bearcats taking over at the West Georgia 11 yard line. Three plays later, Bolles went around the right side for a seven yard TD run and the Bearcats took a 24-6 lead into halftime.

This was a game of two very different halves, and the Wolves were not going down without a fight. On their first drive of the second half, Dickey hit a wide open Telvin Brown for a 58 yard touchdown bomb to make it 24-13. Three straight three-and-outs between the two teams later, the Wolves got the ball back in good field position, and after a third down conversion, the Wolves hit another big pass play to Walker for a 40 yard touchdown. All three big pass plays by the Wolves occurred on first down, and the latest one cut the Bearcat lead to four. This seemed to finally wake up the Bearcat offense, as they drove all the way down to the West Georgia one yard line, but the Wolves defense stiffened and the Bearcats turned the ball over on downs. After the teams traded punts, the Wolves had their longest drive of the game in terms of yards, going 87 yards in to the Northwest five yard line before the Bearcat defense recorded two straight tackles-for-loss to force another Hunter Heck field goal. The seventeen unanswered points by West Georgia made the score 24-23 with 10:37 left to go.

The Wolves forced yet another punt by the Bearcats, and then had their longest drive in terms of plays, going 43 yards in 12 plays. On the twelfth play of the drive, the momentum swung back to the Bearcat side, where it would stay for the remainder of the game. Coach Will Hall elected to send out Heck for a 53 yard field goal, and it was wide right by a country mile. The very next play, Bolles hit George Sehl in stride down the right sideline for a 64 yard touchdown, giving the Bearcats some much needed breathing room at 31-23. The play seemed to renew the energy-depleted Bearcat defense, and after Dickey escaped pressure and scrambled for a first down on the first play of the ensuing drive, he was flushed out of the pocket again and threw the ball right to Bryce Enyard, who took the ball all the way back for a touchdown and a 38-23 lead with 3:39 left. The Bearcats became the third team on the day to score an offensive and defensive touchdown within a minute. The Wolves got a couple first downs on the next drive, but that was all they could muster and the Bearcats got the ball back on downs with under a minute to go. As Shepherd did roughly three hours earlier, the Bearcats punched their ticket to Kansas City with a single kneel down.


NCAA Division II Championship game Preview
#1 Shepherd (13-0) vs #1 Northwest Missouri State (14-0)
Children’s Mercy Park, Kansas City KS 3PM

Two exciting semifinal games, won by two undefeated teams, making Saturday’s Championship game the first game between unbeaten teams since the 2006 final between Northwest Missouri State and Grand Valley State. Here’s how I see them matching up:


Northwest Missouri St. Offense vs. Shepherd Defense

NWMSU run vs. SU run defense

Shepherd has traditionally been one of the better teams in the country at stopping the run, and this year does not appear to be an exception. During the playoffs they held an IUP team that was averaging almost 300 yards per game (and 5th in the country) to 148 yards, and last week held Grand Valley to just 66 yards. To put that into perspective, a week earlier GV ran for 323 yards on a CSU-Pueblo defense that was ranked #4 in D2 going into that game. Now true, the Lakers did not have their leading rusher against Shepherd, but Marty Carter gashed CSU-P for 231 yards and was only able to claw out 75 against Shepherd. Shepherd’s interior DL is not nearly as big as West Georgia’s but the 4-4 type look they employed against Grand Valley will be a bit different for the Bearcats. The linebacking corps of the Rams looked very athletic against a very athletic Grand Valley team, so it is easy to see why they have been good against the run this year. The Bearcats were able to move the ball pretty well on the ground at times against the Wolves last week, and even though they have been somewhat pass heavy this year, the Bearcats will still try to establish a running game.

Advantage: Slightly Shepherd

NWMSU pass vs SU pass defense

The Rams played pretty well against a good passing attack last week against GV, despite being ranked 70th in D2 in passing yards allowed (although with some of the big leads they had throughout the year, this is not all that surprising). They picked Williams off 3 times, and he was not able to connect very often on the fades and go routes that kept being called. That said, Williams and company were able to move the ball well through the air in the third quarter when they went to more intermediate routes, and that is where the Bearcats do a lot of their damage. The Bearcats will probably have the most complex passing offense that Shepherd will see this year. Everyone gets a piece of the passing game action at some point, as evidenced by the 10 receivers with at least ten catches and the 6 receivers with at least 25. Shawn Bane is the usual homerun threat, but George Sehl has taken a few to the house this year as well, including the big one last week. The Shepherd cornerbacks are rarely out of position, though, and with the athleticism of the LB corps, it will be interesting to see how they will do. The Rams have 38 sacks on the year and 16 INTs. While those numbers may not be earth shattering, they certainly are respectable and the Bearcats will need to execute at a high level against this defense. I’ve been saying it all year, but it bears repeating one last time: the Bearcat offense goes as Bolles goes. When he is on, they are nearly impossible to stop, but when he is off, it’s anybody’s game.

Advantage: Slightly NWMSU

Shepherd Offense vs. Northwest Missouri St. Defense

SU run vs. NWMSU run defense

In years past, it seems that Shepherd dominated the WVIAC with a very strong run game and an even stronger defense. Since the inception of the Mountain East Conference three years ago, not a lot has changed in that aspect, especially on the defensive side of the ball. This year, the Shepherd running game does not seem to be as potent as it used to be, averaging 138 yards per game and ranking 114th in the country. Still, Allen Cross had a big day against Grand valley and had over 100 yards in the first quarter alone on two big runs, so he is certainly capable of doing damage if he gets into space. The Shepherd OL is decently sized at an average of 6’3 297 lbs, and move well as a unit, as evidenced by the two big first quarter runs by Cross. Having said that, the NWMSU defensive line is, in my opinion, the best one in the country. Collin Bevins was the MIAA Co-Defensive Player of the Year at his defensive end position, and Brandon Yost is an extremely disruptive force in the middle. He is second on the team in tackles from his DT spot, which is made even more impressive by a couple factors: 1) the NW DL (and front seven in general) are rotated in and out constantly throughout the game, and 2) he is double teamed a lot. Teams have not had much success running between the tackles against the Bearcats, and his presence is a big reason for that. The linebacking corps of the Bearcats is also very good, as all of them have speed and rarely miss tackles. On the rare instance someone gets by the front seven, the secondary is very good at tackling as well. As a total unit, the Bearcats do not let big plays happen in the run game. The longest run allowed this year was 45 yards, and it was one of only two running plays of 30+ yards given up by the best rushing defense in the land. The one thing that has hurt the Bearcat defense in the past is a scrambling QB, and UWG QB Dallas Dickey did some damage last week. In watching the game against GV, SU QB Jeff Ziemba looked like he has the capability to make plays with his feet moreso than the backup Connor Jessup does, but whether he is going to play is up in the air. Still, he has gained less than 200 yards on the ground, so it would appear that he hasn’t had to tuck and run all that often.

Advantage: NWMSU

SU pass vs. NWMSU pass defense

The Rams have one of the biggest weapons in D2, both statistically and physically. At 6’4, 236 lbs, he will easily be the largest WR the Bearcats have faced this year, and with 1,397 yards, is also the most prolific. He has very good speed for a player of his size, and catches the ball very well with his hands. For Northwest fans, he reminds me of a slightly taller, bigger, and faster Jake Soy in that he uses his big body very well to help him “block out” the opposing defensive back, and with that advantage, the “50/50” ball turns into more of a “60/40” ball, if not better. Ziemba has had a great year, too. He is 5th in the country in pass efficiency, and has thrown only 4 interceptions in 357 attempts. That is crazy good, and a big reason why he is a Harlon Hill Trophy finalist. Again, though, whether he plays is a big question. And if he does, it brings up another one: with an injured throwing shoulder, will he be as effective? Backup QB Connor Jessop played very well against GV coming in cold after Ziemba’s injury, and with a weapon like Brown to throw to, big plays are certainly still possible. As seen in the last two playoff games (and a few times throughout the regular season), the big pass play is something the Bearcat defense has been susceptible to. For it to happen, though, the offense has to give the QB time to deliver the ball, and that is something the Bearcat D has not allowed very often. They have 50 sacks on the year, and 25 INTs against only 12 passing TDs allowed. The Shepherd OL has allowed 29 sacks on the year (102nd nationally), so they are probably going to have to sacrifice a receiving option or two to help in blocking. As good as Ziemba is, and although they have given up a few big plays of late, the Bearcat defense is still ranked tops in D2 in pass efficiency defense. Opposing QBs are completing only 42% of their passes and are getting a very low 5.5 yards per attempt. Billy Brown is a great weapon, and the Rams are most likely going to have to get a little creative in order to give whoever is playing QB time to get it to him.

Advantage: NWMSU

Special Teams

Punting and Punt Returns

Everyone knows the old adage, “Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.” I won’t disagree with that, but teams don’t win championships without executing in all three phases of the game. This is one area of the game where I believe Shepherd has a real advantage. The Bearcat punting game has been inconsistent to the point that they made a change at punter, and WR Randy Schmidt has taken over those duties. One interesting dynamic that hasn’t yet been seen in the punting game is Schmidt’s arm. He is a former QB, and had one of the best looking passes of the year in the Pittsburg State game on a WR pass. It will be interesting to see if NW pulls something out of the back of the playbook in a punting situation. The Bearcat punt return defense hasn’t been all that great on the year either, as they have allowed 10.15 yards per return (and one TD). They will be asked to slow down the nation’s 5th best punt return unit, as the Rams are getting an astounding 18.3 yards per return (with 3 TDs). The unit also blocks a lot of punts (8 this year), too, so this part of the game has to be a concern for the Bearcat coaches.

On the flip side, Shawn Bane has had his ups and downs. He has had some big returns, but he has also had a few mental errors in that capacity as well. Shepherd’s punter averages 41 yards per punt and the team averages a net of 36 yards per punt (18th in D2). They only allow 6 yards per return, too, so Bane may not have a whole lot of room to make a play. One thing in the Bearcats’ favor when Shepherd punts, though is the fact that they are also good at blocking kicks (5 on the year), and had one in the last national championship game against Lenoir-Rhyne. One here would be equally as big.

Advantage: Shepherd

Kicking and Kickoff Returns

The Bearcats have one of the best field goal kickers in the country in Simon Mathieson. He has 23 made field goals and has only missed 5 on the year. Shepherd has only missed 5 field goals, too (on five less attempts), so both teams have capable kickers. As mentioned earlier, Shepherd did have an extra point attempt blocked last week, and Northwest has blocked 4 kicks to their credit, so there lies a possibility of a big play there.

The return game is somewhat even, with a slight edge to the Rams as they have one kickoff return for a TD while the Bearcats are still looking for their first. Still, Bane is dangerous and has had some big returns on the year, being a tackle away from taking it all the way a couple times, but the Bearcats average only 18.4 (131st) per return. Shepherd’s kickoff coverage is ranked 107th in D2 and they have allowed a touchdown, however, so Bane could give the offense some good field position. The Rams return unit averages 21.5 yards per return (with one TD) and the Bearcats have allowed some bigger returns this year, too, including one touchdown, but they do rank 66th nationally in allowing 19.5 yards per return.

Advantage: Slightly Shepherd


Coaching

NWMSU’s Adam Dorrell is in his 5th season as head coach, and is 60-8 so far in his young career. He already has a National Championship ring as a head coach, going undefeated two years ago. He played for and coached with Mel Tjeerdsma (in my opinion, the best head coach in Division II history), winning two titles (’99 and ’09) on that coaching staff. He has had a few bumps here and there in his first five years, but his record speaks for itself. Considering how young this team is, he has done a fantastic job this year. On the other sideline is Monte Cater, who is in his 29th year as Head Coach, all of them at Shepherd. He is 220-90-1 all time, and has more wins than all but a couple current coaches in D2. Shepherd has been a force in Super Region One for quite some time now, and he’s been doing it with a lot fewer scholarship equivalencies than teams in the MIAA have. Even though Dorrell has the hardware, Cater has most likely literally seen it all.

Advantage: Very slightly Shepherd

Intangibles

This will be the second game played in Kansas City, Kansas at Children’s Mercy Park, but will be the first to feature a team from the MIAA. All early indications are pointing to the biggest crowd in D2 National Championship Game history, so this will be something entirely new to both teams. I was one of the 6,672 people who witnessed the inaugural game last year, and it got decently loud. Considering that I would guess roughly a third of that crowd were indifferent local fans, the acoustics of the stadium hold sound in very well. With this game being projected to be very close to a sellout, and the vast majority of those attending being Bearcat fans, it is going to be very, very loud when Shepherd has the ball. That has to be a concern for Cater, whose team is one of the most penalized teams in D2. The Rams average over 10 flags and 101 penalty yards per game. A lot of offensive lines have had false starts against the Bearcat DL on their own home field this year, and with up to 16,000+ screaming Bearcat fans, I would think there will be a few more. The Rams defense is also heavily penalized (a sign of how aggressive they play on defense, similar to the Bearcats), giving up 44 first downs by penalty, the most in the division.

The game is also going to be played on grass, which will be the first game the Bearcats have played on grass since the 2013 Arrowhead game. In fact, the Bearcats have only played on two grass fields in the past several years, with Minnesota State’s field being the other (a 2OT loss in 2012). Still, the field is world class, and it shouldn’t have too much of an effect (the grass at Arrowhead didn’t seem to phase the Bearcats, as they went 9-3 in those games against Pittsburg St.). One factor that will be interesting to keep an eye on is the youth factor. The Bearcats have only 8 seniors on the entire squad, and there are quite a few players that were not on the 2013 National Championship team.

Finally, there is something to be said about pressure. Obviously, this is the National Championship game, so it goes without saying both sides are playing under pressure. But there is no doubt that NWMSU has a bit added pressure. They will be playing essentially a home game. Expectations are high, and have been since the team beat Emporia State in the regular season, and after the win against UWG, expectations are the highest they’ve been all season. They are favored in some Vegas books by 3 touchdowns (way too high, in my opinion). Shepherd has the advantage of playing loose, with the “it’s us against the world mentality.” It’s worked in the Championship game before, including last year and in two prior games that Northwest has played in (’07 and ’08). That said, this Northwest team seems to excel in pressure situations, and this will be the biggest pressure situation of the year.

Advantage: NWMSU


Overall

All signs point to this game being a defensive battle. Both teams have relied on their defense to get them to where they are today, and I just can’t see this game being a shootout. Shepherd needs to hit a big play and get an early lead to try and keep the crowd out of it, and while they have shown they could do that against Grand Valley, I think it will be a bit tougher against the Bearcats on Saturday. The Rams will need to force some turnovers or make some huge plays on special teams, both of which are entirely possible. The problem is, when the Bearcats turn the ball over, the defense has done an outstanding job of preventing points off those turnovers. When Bolles was intercepted last week, the Bearcat D forced a three and out. When the Wolves got the ball on the NW 38 after a bad snap on the punt, they were only able to get a field goal out of it. If the Shepherd offensive line can give the QB time to get the ball in Brown’s hands and open up some running lanes for Cross and Jabre Lolley, the Rams have a good shot at winning this game. Still, if they do, they will be the first and only team to do it against the Bearcats this year, and I think the Bearcat DL will not let those things happen with any consistency. I see the Bearcats completing their “Drive for Five”.


SU 17
NWMSU 31




As always, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to post below! You can also follow me on Twitter @IanD2FMIAA.