Week 6 in the Lone Star Conference

Another week is in the books and we move past the mid-point of the 11 week season. I predicted pretty well this week going 3-1 and missing on last week's Game of the Week of theMSU-Angelo game and I think it was a huge win for the Rams. I move to 17-7 on the season for a 70% prediction rating.We have another major week in the crazy LSC season. Who will win? Who will push for the title? Each week a new surprise continues to sneak up and make an impact in the Conference. What will it be this week?

I was pretty much spot on for the game that I missed in regards to Angelo State and the keys to have success against Midwestern. I didn't think that the Rams could make all those necessary changes and adapt but they certainly did and it proved to be the biggest win in Wagner's tenure at Angelo State. I stated that Washington and Rams would have to run a lot more and help the run game. The QB ran for 250 yards and a TD, while Byrd and Smith added 116 yards and 2 TDs. Additionally, I stated that the Ram defense would have to put pressure on Glover and make him throw some miscues. What did the Rams do? Exactly that. They sacked Glover 5 times and made him throw 2 interceptions. The Rams made the appropriate adjustments and came out fired up in the second half to seal the game. Ultimately, the turnovers caused by the Ram Defense lead to their success in taking down Midwestern for the first time in Wichita Falls since 1999 and their first win over a ranked opponent in 2 years!!! I mentioned last week that the Rams needed to beat Midwestern to take that next step. This is the biggest win for the Rams under Head Coach Will Wagner and Kyle Washington showed why he is the pre-season player of the year.


Thoughts around the LSC:

-Angelo State takes a major step forward, can they beat a revived Commerce team on Homecoming?

-ENMU shuts down Kingsville, can their defense stop a good McMurry passing game?

-Midwestern Stategot surprised at home, can they have another miracle in Canyon like in 2012?

-McMurry passed very well last week, will they break the ENMU defense?

-Tarleton has lost 3 straight games and gave up 24 points in the 1st quarter last week. What's next?

-Texas A&M Commercemade a point last weekand still has no respect in the polls.

-West Texas dominated in the 2nd half again last week but gave up 436 passing yards?
　

J
We continue to have shakeups during the season. To be honest, we all knew that this could be a crazy season and it appears that it is going in that direction.My ranking might shock some this week...
  1. [*=1]
    Texas A&M Commerce (4-1) (3-0Commerce comes into this week as the top spot with the Midwestern loss to Angelo State and their beat down of Tarleton. Deric Davis came up big for the Lions last week passing for 324 yards and 2 TDs with being 24 for 32 (75%). Pretty impressive for the backup QB. They really burned the Texans in the passing game and had a good day in special teams. Bergeron has been a nice complement to the passing game and has been steady. Team Strengths: Passing game, Passing Efficiency (68.85%), Special Teams (all areas), Defensive Line, run defense, pressure in the opposing backfield (TFLs and Sacks), Interception Ratio (1 to 8), and balanced attempts between run and pass (171 to 183). Team Weaknesses: Penalties (81.80 yds/gm), Secondary (1,489 yds), Fumbles (8-most in LSC) and opponent TFLs (35). The Lions face a big test this week against Angelo State who is coming off their biggest win in over a decade.

    [*=1]
    West Texas A&M (3-2) (2 The Buffaloes have won 3 straight and are moving up the ladder. It appears the team seems to be gelling more than they did in week 1 and 2. The defense is still suspect; especially the secondary last week; but, the passing game has improved by leaps and bounds. In the past three games, Rabb has been excellent with his passing percentage by going 15 for 23 (65.21%) against Shorter, 34 for 49 (69.4%) against Angelo and 25 for 32 (78.13%) against McMurry. In addition, he has not thrown an interception in the past two contests. This WT team has been balanced between their rushing and passing attempts (183 to 192), not very typical for past WT teams. Geremy Alridge-Mitchell has really stepped up for this offense and taken the load accumulating 457 rushing yards on the season. The biggest improvement by this team is their half time adjustments. They have only allowed 6 points in the 2nd Half in the last two games. Team Strengths: Receivers, Special Teams (all areas), Passing Game (1,482 yds) and Passing Efficiency (64.6%), Interceptions (7), and athleticism. Weaknesses: Defensive pressure on QBs (only 9 sacks), Secondary/passing defense (1,256 yds), opponent TFLs (30), Penalties (79 yds/gm) and Red Zone defense (82%).

    [*=1]
    Angelo State (3-1) (2-1The Rams are not in the #5 spot after last week's outstanding performance. They responded from their WT loss in a big way. I mentioned last week's game above with several details and some analysis. Washington was very impressive last week and practically unstoppable throwing and running the ball. What is the most impressive about this team? The number of fumbles they have committed. A total of zero fumbles for 888 rushing yards on the ground. That accompanied by only 4 interceptions that has been thrown on this season makes this a sound offensive unit with discipline in carrying the ball. Team Strengths: Turnover battle, rushing defense (516 yds, 38 TFLs, 12 sacks), QB play (394 rush yds, 1,000 pass yds), Kickoff Return (28.73 avg/yds), and Punting (40.47 yds/punt). Team Weaknesses: Secondary (1,214 yds), Penalties (60.50 yds/game) and 3rd down defense (43.94%).

    [*=1]
    Midwestern State (3-1) (2-1he Mustangs took a major hit last week to the Rams. The game was close until about the 4th quarter. Midwestern ultimately lost the turnover battle and it cost them the game. Two fumbles and two interceptions could not be overcome against an improved Angelo State team. This is still a very good Mustang team that has been running the ball effectively. The passing game is still a little lacking. The biggest issue is Jake Glover's passing percentage (48.3%). This stat is just hard to overcome if you have to resort to the passing game. However, the defense has been stellar; especially the secondary with only 741 yds. They will need help this week going against a talented WT receiving core. Team Strengths: Running game (5.2 yards per attempt), Overall defense. Team Weaknesses: Passing Game Completion Percentage (51.4%), Turnovers (9 total), and Penalties (86.2 yds/game).

    [*=1]
    Tarleton State (1-3) (1-2s have had a tough time over the last three games. They are coming off their biggest loss of the season. Unfortunately, they are probably out of playoff contention and will not probably not repeat as LSC champs. Their pass defense has been susceptible at times and was fully exploited against Commerce. They have given up 1,213 yards in 4 games. The Texan defense just doesn't seem to be what it was last year. Team Strengths: Passing Game (1,052 yds).Team Weaknesses: Pass Defense, and Interceptions thrown (5). The Texans should get back on the wining track this week. They have ran pretty much through the LSC gauntlet and have the easier part of their schedule to play.

    [*=1]
    Eastern New Mexico (3-2) (1-2) - The Hounds have played fairly well this season but just have not been able to have the full head of steam like they did last season. The triple-option has been successful as they have accumulated 1,455 yards but the passing game only has 861 yards. They are clearly not going for balance with their triple-option offense (runs 326 attempts and pass 84 attempts). ENMU has played well but everyone is not letting them slip past this season and the team is a little down from last year in their performance level. They have a remarkable run defense only giving up 253 yards but the secondary is giving up 1,472 yards. In addition, 7 fumbles and 2 Interceptions makes it hard to stay on the winning path. This was an area that they had difficulty with last season. Team Strengths: Running game, TFLs (38),. Team Weaknesses: Secondary, Turnovers (9 total), and defensive sacks (6).

    [*=1]
    McMurry(2-2) (1-2) - McMurry played pretty well against the buffaloes and torched them in the passing game. Jeret Smith was a beast going over 200 yards receving. He and McHugh were the big reasons that they were so successful. McHugh had a very successful game going 29 for 44 for 374 yards. The rushing attack was just not there and overwhelmed every time they attempted to run. Lots of improvement is still needed but they have played decent this year. They are just not ready to compete against the top 4 LSC teams.

    [*=1]
    Texas A&M Kingsville (1-4) (0-3Javelinaswere shut out by the Grey Hounds last week and only had a total of 278 offensive yards, with 50 coming in the rushing department. The Javelinas just couldn't anything going and could not stop the Hounds defensive front. Kingsville has really struggled this year in all areas. Rios could only throw for 146 yards and Taylor for 82 yards. This year has just been another season that they Javelinas cannot get things going like they did in the previous decade. Lots of adjustments are needed or they may just lose every game on the remaining of the schedule.




Week 6 Previews and Predictions:
This coming week will be just as exciting as the previous week. Will we see upsets? Will we see power struggles? If I am a betting man. I say,'Yes.'


Texas A&M Kingsville (1-4) v. Tarleton State(1-3), Saturday, 6 p.m. Kickoff
Stephenville, TX, Memorial Stadium

The Texans welcome the Javelinas to Memorial Stadium this weekend. Both teams as of late have been struggling and are on a 3-game skid. That will end for one of these teams tonight. The Javelinas got shut out last week in their biggest loss of their season and the Texans got blown out by the Lions in their biggest loss of the season. However, the Texans are having a lot more success on the offensive side of the ball compared to the Javelinas. The Texans should score more than enough points to win this game. The Texans have been close every week until last week. They just didn't have enough to pull out the wins in their past three games. The Javelinas will struggle again this week but will probably score some points compared to last week. They just cannot keep up with this good Texan offense. The Texans get back on the winning track.

Prediction: Tarleton State 35 Texas A&M Kingsville 10


McMurry(2-2) v.Eastern New Mexico (3-2), 2 p.m. Kickoff
Abilene, TX Wilford Moore Stadium

The Warhawks welcome ENMU to their homecoming this week as they hope to take down a good Grey Hound rushing attack. This could be an intriguing game. McMurry doesn't run a lot but throws a lot. ENMU has been getting burned on the pass and could be in trouble of losing this game. The stength of McMurry is ENMU's weakness. However, the War Hawks rushing defense has not been stellar and may have a difficult time slowing down the triple-option. However, giving up 696 rushing yards on the season is pretty decent for the McMurry defense. This will be the best running game that they have seen this season. These things truly set this up as a good matchup because the teams strengths and weaknesses plays right into the favor of the other team. I just think that ENMU is overall a little better than the War Hawks. I would not be surprised if this game is close all the way through. I'll give the advantage to ENMU and see them winning this game in the end.

Prediction: ENMU 27 McMurry23


Game of the Week I: West Texas A&M (3-2) v. Midwestern State (3-1), 7 p.m. Kickoff
Canyon, TX, Kimbrough Memorial Stadium

The Mustangs roll into Kimbrough to look for a win after they dropped last weekat home to Angelo State in surprise fashion. The Buffaloes are on a 3-game win streak and beat the foe that took down MSU last week. What does that say for this week? Nothing. Anything can happen on any given Saturday. These two teams have been rivaling each other over the past many seasons and they will both be up for this game putting everything they can out on the field to win this game.

Midwestern has struggled in Canyon and it will be a tough game for them to win. They won the recent trip to Canyon on a botched punting play that was fumbled and picked up for a TD to pretty much give them the win. A true stunner for all those that attended the game. It is these types of plays that will have to be the determinant against each other.

The Mustangs have truly had a difficult time with their passing completion. Glover has a good arm to go deep and I suspect he will many times against this struggling WT secondary. The Midwestern will need to force Rabb to make a mistake and throw a few picks. That will be a tall order with the play of the news gunslinger for West Texas. The Stangs have only forced 3 INTs on the season, while the Buffs have forced 7 turnovers and will look to pick off Glover like the Rams did last week.

The Buffaloes have not been too impressive slowing the passing game down against good passing teams. They have been a little better in the rushing defense area but will need to step up against an always potent running offense in MSU. I think Midwestern will need to make WT one-dimensional and force them to either throw every down of run every down.

What does this come down to? The WT offense and offensive line, as well as the Midwestern Passing attack. The WT O-line has really started to pick up momentum and has given the run game plenty of room to run and allowed Rabb to have the time to make good passes. Rabb has not suffered many sacks over the past several contests and this will need to remain strong against a really good Midwestern defense that will be out to pull the win in Canyon.

I just don't think Glover will have enough to win this game with his passing game. Yes, WT has been suspect in the secondary but they are causing several turnovers. If WT cannot slow the running game down, look for a long day and a shootout to see who wins this contest. The Buffaloes just seem to be on the up track and getting things more and more together, especially coming out in the second half. Midwestern cannot put the ball on the ground this week at all or have the turnover problem that they have been having or the Buffs will have their way with this game. Midwestern will need to build a big lead in the first half to try and win. The Buffs have been getting a slow start each week but make incredible adjustments in the 2nd half, give credit to this WT coaching staff for that.

I'll give a slight advantage to the Buffs because the Mustangs tend to struggle in Canyon and Glover's passing game will be forced to win the game. Buffs roll on...

Prediction: West Texas A&M 34 Midwestern 31


Game of the Week II: Angelo State(3-1) v. Texas A&M Commerce (4-1), 7 p.m. Kickoff
San Angelo, TX LeGrand Stadium

I mentioned above that the Rams are coming off a major win and riding a lot of momentum coming into this game. They will welcome a much improved Commerce team to the Rams Homecoming this week. I suspect we shall see lots of fireworks in this game. This should be a stellar game.

The Rams really rebounded last week coming off a second half meltdown against the Buffaloes in the prior week. Washington really excelled last week and he will need to put on another identical performance this week to have any chance at winning this game.

The Lions are getting into opposing team backfields and causing havoc and they will try and have Washington's number in this game. Look for lots of blitzs coming at Washington because the Lions cannot afford to let him loose into the open-field or he will gash them for big yardage. The Rams have been a little better on the defensive side of the ball against the run and the pass. However, the Ram secondary was exploited against WT. The Lion passing game will be very similar to the WT passing game and will hope to have the same success that WT had.

I say this game comes to the defenses and turnover battle. The turnovers are clearly in favor of the very disciplined Ram offense. They are not coughing the ball up at all and only have 4 Interceptions, while the Lions have 8 fumbles and 1 INT on the season. Whoever can maintain the ball and not turn it over should come out top. The concern is the Ram secondary. The Midwestern passing game is not comparable to the WT passing game. This will be one of the best passing teams that they will face and should be identical to trying to cover WT.

I suspect the Rams running game will struggle as the Lions have really been good at causing pressure and slowing down the run game only giving up 3.1 yards per rush. I think that they will have to figure out a way to stay balanced and exploit the secondary as often as possible.

Idoubted the Rams last week and they made all the key adjustments that needed to be made moving forward. Can they continue to rally and bring down the top team in the LSC right now? I'm going to say that secondary will not have enough to stop the potent Lion passing attack. I see this going similar to the WT game and could turn out very similar. The secondary needs to be on their toes all game to win this one for the Rams. I'll say it again. Can the Rams win? Yes. Will they have enough to push past Commerce? I don't think they will this week. Lions take one on the road...

Prediction: Texas A&M Commerce 44 Angelo State 42