Let me start off by saying I think the NCAA Division II playoff process stinks.
Mathematics ought to be used to measure for carpet, not to rank football teams.
Rather than use this complex matrix to rank the teams, I would rather have five or six coaches get together in the back room of a bar, light some cigars and pour some drafts, then hash it out. When they open the door, they will have used logic to pick the six best teams in the region.
But as we all know, the NCAA does not do anything that makes sense. The NCAA vigorously goes after schools with "hostile or abusive" nicknames, but looks the other way when crooked coaches leave town before the you-know-what hits the fan, and the schools are left to clean up the mess.
But I digress. Back to my point: the D2 playoff process is idiotic.
But you know what? Despite the asinine process that we have to live with, there is some beauty in the way things have shaped up in the PSAC.
Think of it this way: From here on, every week has an elimination game or two.
Several times, teams have, or will, take the field knowing they must win or their season is over.
How is that for excitement?
I am not a smart enough man to understand the selection criteria the NCAA uses to rank the teams. I think it takes into account won-loss record, the weight of the offensive line, average field position after third-quarter punt returns and favorite number of the head coach.
OK, maybe not. But I do know that there are some teams that cannot get to the playoffs, no matter what they do the rest of the season.
To be in contention for the playoffs, it is best for a PSAC team to either win its division or finish second with its lone loss coming to the team that did win the division. A team in any other circumstance than those is putting its fate in the hands of an Excel spreadsheet, and no football coach wants to do that.
An example: Edinboro is a pretty good team. Lots of talent. But since the Fighting Scots lost to IUP two weeks ago, they knew they had a slim margin for error. And then last week, Slippery Rock rallied to beat Edinboro, 24-23, giving the Fighting Scots their second division loss.
Goodbye Edinboro.
I suppose there is some bizarre way that the math could work out and Edinboro gets a playoff spot. But it would probably take a miracle of sorts, like maybe California, Slippery Rock and IUP all laying eggs from here on out. But if I was a gambling man, I would say Edinboro is out, thanks to their loss to Slippery Rock. Had they won, the Fighting Scots would still be on the edge, but very alive.
Mercyhurst and Shippensburg also suffered the same fate as Edinboro, with losses last Saturday likely knocking them out of the playoff race.
So it seems that with five weeks to go, the PSAC has six teams still alive for the playoffs: Bloomsburg (6-0 overall, 3-0 division), C.W. Post (3-3, 3-0) and Kutztown (5-1, 2-1) in the East; and California (5-1, 3-0), Slippery Rock (5-1, 3-0) and IUP (3-2, 2-1) in the West.
The big game this week is California at Slippery Rock. Luckily for both teams, a loss is not fatal. But because both have only one loss already, the loser will be on the edge. Bloomsburg is the only team playing with the luxury of being undefeated.
Next week, there could be a critical game in the East, when Kutztown visits C.W. Post. Should they both win Saturday, and I suspect they will, the Golden Bears and Pioneers will enter the game knowing a loss knocks them out of the playoff race.
Maybe you like the current playoff selection process. Not me. I think it is junk.
But the 2011 PSAC season has turned out to be awfully good. A lot of these games have a playoff feel to them. And if you ask me, that is not a good thing.
It is a great thing.
MILESTONE MAN
East Stroudsburg head coach Denny Douds will tie a Division II record Saturday when his Warriors host C.W. Post.
The game will be his 393rd on the sideline, tying the record set by Jim Malosky, at Minnesota-Duluth from 1958 to 1997. Douds will break the record next week when the Warriors take on Millersville at home.
Douds, who already owns the PSAC record for career wins (230) would probably trade a few of those wins from the past for a few this season, as his team has lost five in a row after starting the season with a win over Pace.
But anyone who knows Douds can attest that the 70-year old coach is about more than wins and losses.
"We won our fair share of conference championships," he told USA Today, "but if we can bring kids into the program who will then go out and make a positive contribution in the community, [that is] a big win for us."
Cheers to that, Denny.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Easy choice here: California at Slippery Rock. The two best offenses and the two best defenses will be on the field at the same time. How often do you see that?
Slippery Rock has the top-ranked defense in the country. But be honest about it: The Rock has not faced a premier offense yet. They will when California comes to town.
The Vulcans arrive having outscored their last three opponents by a combined score of 127-32. Sounds impressive, right? Well, those three teams are Clarion, Lock Haven and Gannon, none of whom classify as juggernauts.
Call it the Truth Bowl. This game will show what the Vulcans and Rock are made of. The winner has the inside track to the PSAC West crown; the loser facing an uncertain future.
I give the slightest edge to Slippery Rock, because they are at home. But it ought to be a good one.
POWER RANKINGS
Based on nothing but my opinion:
1. Bloomsburg (6-0)
2. California (5-1)
3. Slippery Rock (5-1)
4. Kutztown (5-1)
5. IUP (3-2)
6. West Chester (3-3)
7. C.W. Post (3-3)
8. Shippensburg (3-3)
9. Edinboro (4-2)
10. Mercyhurst (3-3)
11. East Stroudsburg (1-5)
12. Gannon (2-4)
13. Millersville (2-4)
14. Clarion (1-5)
15. Cheyney (1-5)
16. Lock Haven (0-5)
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PSAC: Hanging on every game
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PSAC: Hanging on every game
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#5Matt Burglund commented10-16-2011, 04:53 PMEditing a commentA couple years ago, a coach who was on the committee (but is not now) told me that the NCAA discouraged the committee from using the "human element" in its rankings. He said the NCAA "strongly urged" them to use the formula and stick with it. My wish is that the coaches don't use math at all.
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#6Horror Child commented10-17-2011, 06:07 AMEditing a commentIf it's such a farce, why have the regional and national committees at all? If it's so well know that everything is prescribed by the "formula", why would anyone from the regions agree to be on the committees? Also, how do results versus common opponents and head-to-head competition get factored into a formula? While the Edinboro analysis is extensive, it has little to do with the rankings formula.
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#7Matt Burglund commented10-17-2011, 08:34 AMEditing a commentThose are excellent questions. I wish I knew the answer to them. Maybe you're more trusting of the NCAA than I am. My experience is that the NCAA avoids common sense every chance it gets.
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