Concordia-St. Paul (1-5) at Minnesota State-Mankato (6-0), Friday 6pm
The opening game (Friday night) in conference for Week 7 is between two teams going in different directions. Concordia started off the year playing strong defense and was competitive til the end against decent competition, but still found themselves 1-3 after 4 weeks. In the last 2 weeks they've now dropped 2 more games, but both by large margins. During the past few seasons the Golden Bears have been competitive early but have then fallen off considerably. Once again CSP is at risk of that occurring again as their offense continues to amongst the worst in the conference, and their defense is now starting to come apart as well.

On the other sideline the Mavericks are still riding high and could very well be on their way to a 3rd straight unbeaten regular season. Considering the parity in the rest of the NSIC South, that would be quite the accomplishment.

Last week the Mavs were able to clear another hurdle, running away from Winona State by 3 scores. While the outcome of the game was seemingly never in question, the Mavs didn't look sharp for much of the second half offensively. While the Mavs can both run and throw the ball they did seem to struggle with their offensive identity at times. Ricky Lloyd can be a dynamic D2 passer, but can also throw some interceptions by taking some chances.

The Mavericks defense might be the bigger story with top team in the conference. Josh Gordon (below) is leading the conference in sacks (12) and isn't showing signs of slowing down anytime soon. With the impact that Gordon is having, offensive coordinators will need to start planning around him to an extent. Last last year, the Mavs front 4 is disrupting the oppositions offense enough that it makes things easy for the rest of the defense.


(Photo: MSUMavericks.com)

Overall I'm not sure any other team in the conference is as complete and good at the point of attack as the Mavericks. I still don't feel their offense is as dynamic as the Wolf-Carter squad of last year, but the Mavs have continued to be a very strong offense.

The Maverick defense should have their way with a challenged Concordia offense. I'm not sure I see any chance for the Golden Bears to stop this game from being their 3rd straight one-sided loss.
MSU-Mankato 48-16

Southwest Minnesota State (2-4) at Sioux Falls (6-0), Noon
The battle for the 212 hashtag. Both squads have been using the boiling point hashtag as a mantra for their style of play, so this might as well be for the 212 trophy..or something.

Anyway, SMSU comes into this game playing their best football of the year, after getting off to a rocky start to the season due to continual offensive line stability issues and changes. Last week again UIU the Mustangs QB Charlie Kern was able to make plays through the air and with his feet, and got help from a long awaited strong effort from Tyler Tonderum. I said earlier in the year that Mustangs would be a team that would clearly get better as the year continued (with their new parts starting to gel) and they are showing signs of having a respectable 2nd half to the season.

The real challenge for the Mustangs continues to be their defense. That said, the SMSU Defense has a great overall effort against the Peacocks..but few expect to see that effort on a weekly basis.

The Mustang Defense has their work cut out for them at USF. The Cougars have continued to look like a top offense in the league, and with QB Luke Papilion (below) being cut loose last weekend against Augustana, he will make preparation for the Coo Offense much more challenging. With Papilion running the ball on a regular basis (mostly to the outside), and Nephi Garcia continuing to be among the best runners in the conference between the tackles, the Coo offense has a very good 1-2 attack there.


(Photo: Argus Leader)

The Cougar Defense has certainly been amongst the biggest surprises this year in the NSIC, a group that pretty much made Trey Heid look like the 2013 version of himself. That said, SMSU will have a more diverse attack and should be a good test for this still-young Cougar group. Naturally a post-Augie-game hangover could be expected for USF, but the SMSU game was by far the sore spot with the poor defensive campaign the Cougars had in 2013. The 800 yard night the Mustangs had was an embarrassing moment for a very proud Coo football program. Plenty of the USF defenders had this game scheduled to show how different the defense is..year to year.

This is the 3rd straight contest for the Mustangs against an unbeaten team, so they are clearly accustom to that situation. Overall I think this game has the potential to be a rocky game for the Cougars considering the emotional win just a week ago against Augie and the fact that SMSU looked solid against a good UIU team. I think USF wins, but I expect the game to get wild at times.
USF 41-27

Augustana (3-3) at Wayne State (4-2), 1pm
A few weeks ago I would've been all over Augie in this one, but it's funny how momentum works and how things change over the course of a short time. Augustana has now lost 2 in a row, having their playoff chances dashed and now run the risk of another lost season with a sub .500 record. With Trey Heid playing well and the defense playing hard-nosed, that type of finish seemed miles away. Now Heid needs to get confidence back while losing one of his top wideouts for the rest of the year.

Wayne State on the other hand has completely proved the conference blogger mistaken (who had them winning 2 games) by going 4-2 so far, seemingly getting stronger each week. A few weeks ago WSC got thumped a bit by SCSU, couldn't stop Moorhead, and barely beat Minot State. Now they've just beaten Winona by 3 scores and then torched a solid defense up at Concordia. Who are the Wildcats..? I'm not entirely sure, but I think they have a strong pass rush with good blitzing and they have a very explosive passing game on the other side of the ball.

On Saturday I think former Augie Head Coach Mike Aldrich gets a little bit of revenge against the team who let him go after the 2012 season. I've got the hot-handed Wildcats outlasting a Viking squad that now seems a little hobbled at this point in a season that seemingly had a lot of promise.
Wayne State 31-20

Northern State (4-2) at Minnesota-Duluth (6-0), 1pm
Before the season started I really hadn't given much consideration to that idea that NSU at UMD would essentially be for the NSIC North Title, but essentially that's the case this Saturday. Northern has strung together some wins and now find themselves at 4-2 and likely a positive year for the Wolves. The NSU offense has become a consistent threat and was able to win a fire-fight with MSU-Moorhead last weekend, after being down 18-0 after 1 quarter. Problem is, they will likely see a little bit colder and windier weather in Duluth and that should impact the Wolves more than the home team.

UMD's running game and continued development of the Bulldog passing game seem to be taking shape over the last few weekends. Duluth has multiple rushers that can hurt ya and now Drew Bauer threw for 300 yards against a SCSU team that is still no worse than a middle of the pack squad. Times like this for Bauer should provide him added aerial-confidence come the playoffs when they will see stronger defenses that could put the Bulldogs in a position where they might need to go to the air more often.

While this game is essentially for the North Title, I'm not sure I see the Wolves Defense slowing down the wrecking ball offense of the home team.
Duluth 55-24

Mary (3-3) at Minnesota-Crookston (0-6)
Mary sneaks out a win against their rival Minot State 31-29, but I'm not sure that gives me thoughts that Mary is as middle of the pack as their 3-3 record would suggest. They've beaten SMSU, CSP, and now Minot. Good thing is that getting Minot and Crookston in consecutive weeks is the best recipe in the NSIC for 'getting right' as a team.

As for the game itself, Crookston doesn't appear to be showing any signs of winning a game this year. I'd like to see them compete in the conference but it's just not occurring. Don't get me wrong, offensive success for Mary has been very hard to come by the last few weeks but the Mary Defense has too much pride to lose this one.
Mary 24-14.

St. Cloud State (2-4) at Minnesota State-Moorhead (1-5)
Crazy to look at the Huskies record and to see them 2-4, after going deep into the playoffs last season. The SCSU Offense has gotten the passing game to the point of being respectable, but still use their good running attack as their best means of attack.

On the other sideline the Dragons have a lot of firepower, but a defense that will let the opponent right back into the game. If this team had even a middle of the pack defense they'd be one of the better teams in the North..but just about every team in the North doesn't have a strong offense with the exception of the team that will go undefeated.

While I'm not sure SCSU can win a fire-fight with Moorhead, I think the Huskies will be able to control the LOS enough to slow the game down more to their liking.
St. Cloud 38-28

Minot State (0-6) at Bemidji State (2-4), 2:30pm
Minot State has now lost a few close games but have nothing to show for it. The passing game for Minot seems to have become a pretty nice weapon for the squad. Problem is the MSU Defense has struggled to stop teams this season.

BSU has now won 2 and a row and could be the team in the North that others aren't looking to play in the 2nd half of the season. Bemidji's offense has become a weapon for them and should be good enough to win them plenty of games against the bottom tier of North squads. I like the home team to win this one going away.
BSU 44-20



(Photo: BSU Beavers) (BSU WR Brady Schmidt)

Winona State (3-3) at Upper Iowa (5-1), 6pm
Most would probably call this one the game of the week in the NSIC. At the same time this matchup is a little more complex than the records might indicate. Winona State is accustom to pretty much blowing out the Peacocks, that trend might very well come to an end in Fayette on Saturday night. UIU has been changing the culture of this program during last year and they've continued to push forward with progress this year. That progress might have been halted a bit with the Peacocks getting upset in Marshall last weekend, but this weekend will likely give everyone an indication if the Peacocks aren't going to battle for postseason football or struggle against a really tough South Division.

The UIU Defense hasn't been terrible this year, but they've allowed teams to stay in games with the Peacocks. Last week they allowed SMSU to drive the length of the field, which eventually cost them the game.

Winona State on the other hand has come upon hard times, losing 3 in a row. 2 of those were against Duluth and Mankato, but the blowout loss to Wayne State was likely the most concerning for Warrior followers. Last week Jack Nelson got battered and beaten by the Mavs Defense and I'm not sure how good he will be physically for the remainder of the year from that game..and others that he's been getting sacked continually. WSU WR Josh Mikes continues to be the Randy Moss type player in the conference, a wideout that is just bigger/faster than every defense that faces him, but the Warriors simply aren't getting enough overall production from the rest of the offense to win games. I'd expect UIU to try and bring heat the way that the last 3 opponents have very successfully done against Winona and for the Warriors to keep taking a lot of shots down the field.

At this point I like the Peacocks as this particular game just seems more important to them. The Winona season is pretty much off the rails once again and with strong playoff expectations now being let down I'm not entirely sure how the Warriors will look week to week.
UIU 38-34


Witt's Picks Record: 41-7