I've seen a lot of questions on the D2Football forums asking about the playoff picture and how to make sense of it all. So....I decided to look into the topic in great depth myself. Here's what I found..(keep in mind, it's still all too early to call..this is ranking the field and forecasting here)

Introduction:
There are 4 Super Regions in D2 Football and 6 teams make the playoffs from each region. For the purpose of this column I'm going to be focusing in on SR3 and the 4 Conferences that comprise it.

Conferences:
GAC: Basically look at this as the Arkansas schools with some other teams from neighboring states.
GNAC: The California D2 conference.
MIAA: Primarily a Missouri conference with some Kansas and Oklahoma as well.
NSIC: Minnesota and surrounding states conference.

Regional Rankings:
The Regional Rankings are the criteria used to determine the best 6 teams in region. This is not a poll and national polling has nothing to do with who makes the playoffs. In addition, winning one's conference has nothing to do with the playoffs.

Regional Ranking is determined by a teams winning percentage, strength of schedule, and opposition's strength of schedule. The formula is shown below..

(D2 winning percentage plus SOS) divided by 2

SOS = (OWP + OWP + OOWP) / 3

Essentially the formula states that your own winning percentage is the single biggest factor and then from there your cumulative SOS comes from 2 parts your own SOS and 1 part your opponents SOS.

The first RR will come out on October 27th and will show the numbers year-to-date. Don't be alarmed if the team you support isn't in the top 6 like you think they should be, much will depend on the SOS numbers through 8 weeks. A good example of this will likely be teams like Mankato and USF in the NSIC South. Both teams have played a low SOS so far but play teams with a 70% winning percentage the rest of the year. Each week the RR numbers will be adjusted for the teams you've already played, not the ones who are ahead on your schedule. These numbers could change a good amount from week to week based on the said SOS.

Conference SOS
You can try and do the math at home and figure out your team and others you might have interest in but the math is more challenging than you might think. In conference like the MIAA everyone plays each other and there are no OOC (out of conference) games, so the SOS for those teams will automatically be .500.

In the GAC it's nearly the same situation, but Southern Nazarene is going to be playing SW Baptist in an OOC game so that will impact the SOS for the teams in the conference. SW has a bad record and is from a weak conference, so this will likely lower the SOS of the GAC teams slightly below the .500 level. All the GAC teams in the playoff picture will have only played 10 D2 games, which means a 1-loss GAC team will finish with a .900 winning percentage instead of the .909 winning percentage for teams that have played 11 D2 games. Sounds like nothing much, but it could be the difference between making the dance and sitting home.

In the NSIC there is a North and a South Division and no OOC games. However the league does not have a .500 SOS since you won't play everyone in a 16 team league. That said, you want the teams you played in the other division to have success since they are directly tied into your SOS with greater emphasis than the teams you didn't play. An example of this would be Mankato-USF-UIU-WSC played 4 teams in the North (Minot, SCSU, BSU, Moorhead) and their SOS will be directly tied in with each other. In other words, when St. Cloud is losing games and having an off-year it hurt the SOS for the teams in the NSIC South who played them. However, there are 8 games left (this week and the last week of the season) between the North teams who aren't in the same "Pods" and those games would directly impact the SOS for potential playoff squads.

In the GNAC things are much tougher to call given the OOC games that are involved. That said, early indications are that the SOS within the conference will be lower than the other three conferences mentioned.

Earned Access
This is when a conference has a team in the Top 8, but not the Top 6, that team will get awarded the #6 spot in the region. It's essentially a way of rewarding the top team in the conference (per regional rankings) if they finish within the top 8 spots in the region. While this hasn't occurred in recent memory within SR3 it might very well occur in 2014 with a GNAC team that will have a low SOS but still finish with just 1 loss. Once again, in that case that GNAC team would bump the team who finished in the 6th spot in the RR.

What's it going to take to make the playoffs?
There are currently 5 unbeaten teams in the region. By the end of the regular season there can be no more than 3 teams without a loss, due to head-to-head competition in the coming weeks. Go unbeaten and you will be in without a doubt, due to the math.

Unless some upsets start occuring (certainly very possible) there will be a handful of 1 loss teams in the region battling it out for the final 3 spots for the playoffs. If a lot of upsets occur with 1 loss teams then the possibility of a 2 loss team will open up.

Who's realistically in the mix?

I'd say all 5 unbeaten teams and then the 5 other teams in the region who have 1 loss. 10 teams in all.

Below is a conference by conference review of those teams with the teams in the drivers seat listed first.


GAC - 3 Teams


Henderson State (7-0)


HSU is the front runner in the conference and is the favorite to end up unbeaten. If so, they will be no less than the 2 seed per the numbers.


Ouachita Baptist (7-0)

OBU was a slight underdog in their OT win over Harding last week. OBU will likely be unbeaten heading in to their final game of the year, at HSU. Chances are they finish with 1 loss and in strong contention for a 5th/6 spot.

Harding (6-1)

With their loss last week to OBU the Bison find themselves probably in the worst spot of the 10 here. They are still in the mix but would need to upset the GAC champion this weekend to stay alive. If so, and HSU beats beats OBU, you would have a 3 way tie with the top 3 teams having beaten each other. If such a tie existed (with all having the same SOS as well) I'd expect HSU to get the nod having played 11 games, albiet 1 against an FCS team..a win over Nichols State. A 3 way tie would create additional confusion in the rankings with the 5-6 spots.


MIAA - 2 Teams


Pittsburg State (6-1)


The Gorillas don't have an easy schedule left by any means, but they do they the head-to-head tie breaker if they finish with the same RR as NWMSU. That said, both of the MIAA schools look like they might be trending to a higher SOS than the other 1 loss teams in the field. If so, they might both get in.

Northwest Missouri State (6-1)


Despite being a top 10 ranked team nationally, the Bearcats do run the risk of missing the big dance here. I don't think they will, but they do have some subtle tests remaining on their schedule as well.


NSIC - 3 Teams

Minnesota Duluth 7-0


Probably the most secure playoff team in the group of 10 here. They might not play a team with a winning record in their remaining 4 games, with 2 of those games against a team who've yet to win a game after 7 weeks. The SOS for Duluth will look good the first few weeks and seemingly get worse with each update. The Bulldogs are as close to a sure bet to make the playoffs as anyone in the field.

Minnesota State Mankato (7-0)


The #1 ranked team in the country finishes the year with teams with a winning percentage at .700. They will be tested. The winner of the Mankato/USF game (if unbeaten) will be no less than a #2 seed, possible #1 overall in the region. Mankato is the favorite to beat USF but their SOS is still to-be-determined with games left to play that shape their number.

Sioux Falls (7-0)


In virtually the same position as Mankato with the toughest part of their schedule remaining. USF would be a top seed if they go unbeaten, but they will be an underdog heading into Mankato next weekend. If USF goes 10-1 they will be in a dogfight with teams like OBU, NWMSU, and Earned Access to get one of the final spots. With their SOS still a work in progress, their number is not defined yet. Early numbers suggest that if they finish with 1 loss that they might need some help in the coming weeks from their north opponents (SCSU and company) that they played earlier in the year.


GNAC - 2 Teams

Azusa Pacific (6-1)


APU is currently a touch behind Humboldt in the early numbers but if Grand Valley wins out (a real possibility) that would change their SOS and likely move them ahead of Humboldt. The overall SOS for APU doesn't look like it will end up high enough to land them in the top 6 regional spots, but the top 8 seems likely. APU has an easier schedule remaining versus Humboldt and seems likely to win out. If so, they will seemingly take the 6 spot for the playoffs.

Humboldt State (6-1)


Humboldt was very much in the drivers seat in the GNAC until they got thumped by APU in their return game. Overall SOS will determine if they are the top team in the GNAC, and they still have some testers left on their schedule.



Once again, the first few rankings will be....premature. By seasons end if things play out with the teams favored winning, we'd be looking at something like this..

1. Henderson State
2. Mankato
3. Duluth
4. Pitt State
5. NWMSU / OBU / USF / Harding
6. Azusa Pacific / Humboldt

These are preliminary numbers and forecasting, but this gives you an idea of how things might play out.


(all screen shots from masseyratings.com)