One weekend of football to go and the playoff picture is starting to clear up a bit. Teams have either earned their way into the postseason or played themselves out of contention. Let's look at the top ten in the region and see what is needed to play on November 19th.
1. New Haven- The Chargers have had a great season and can not let off the gas pedal now. They travel to St. Anselm and look to avenge the loss that knocked them out of the playoff picture last year. With a win, they should get one of the byes in the first round and a home playoff game. It is an amazing run for a team in just their third year back after reinstating football in 2008.
2. Winston Salem- Only other undefeated team against D2 competition in SR1. They are playing in the CIAA championship game against Elizabeth City. It is a rematch of the opening game of the season in which the Rams won 22-17. They are also in a position to grab one of the two byes with a win. It looks like they would stay in the top six even with a loss.
3. Elizabeth City- After dropping the first two games of the season, the Vikings have won eight straight games to earn a trip to the CIAA championship game. They will look to avenge their 22-17 loss to Winston Salem in September. The two ESCU losses have come to teams ranked in the top five of the current D2 poll (# 1 Delta State & # 5 Winston Salem). Should jump into the top two with a win and be on the cusp of the playoffs with a loss depending on the other results.
4. California- The Vulcans are back in familiar territory and look to be one of the PSAC teams in the playoffs. They have Cheyney this weekend which will hurt their SOS. A win should keep them in the top six and a loss would keep them out of the playoffs.
5. Kutztown- Playing in the PSAC championship game against Slippery Rock. It is the second straight appearance for the Bears in the game and they need to win to secure their postseason berth as their SOS is not strong. They are the most dangerous team in the field as they are hungry to avenge last year's loss to Shepherd. They have a very good quarterback and a lot of experience.
6. Bloomsburg- The Huskies have lost two straight games and went from controlling their own fate to hoping that teams ahead of them falter. They will finish the season with Lock Haven and need some help to make the playoffs. They are rooting for Slippery Rock in the PSAC championship game as well as the teams behind them to lose. They would be bumped right now for earned access by West Virginia Wesleyan.
7. West Virginia Wesleyan- The Bobcats struggled on the road at Charleston and it cost them a chance for a home game in the playoffs. They face another tough challenge this weekend when they travel to Concord. If they win the game, they should stay at least seventh in the region and use earned access to make the postseason. If they lose, they are out of the playoffs.
8. Southern Connecticut- The Owls need a lot of help to get into the top six. They first need to beat Merrimack this weekend and then hope for upsets ahead of them. It does not look good right now for Southern Connecticut to make the playoffs unless a whole host of things go right for them.
9. Slippery Rock- The Rock dropped a tough game at Gannon and possibly played themselves out of the playoffs. I made a guarantee that if they made the PSAC championship game that they would be in the playoffs and I might have been wrong because of the Gannon upset. They need to beat Kutztown to have a shot at the playoffs and hope for the teams ahead of them to falter.
10. Shepherd- The defending regional champions have an outside shot at defending their title. They need to beat Fairmont State on the road and hope for a number of upsets ahead of them. If not for a two game losing streak in the first two weeks of October, they would be in a great position right now at playing beyond this weekend.
Looking at David Bykowski's analysis of the numbers for the region, the only difference is that Bloomsburg and West Virginia Wesleyan are flipped. It is very clear also that New Haven and the winner of the CIAA championship game will be the top two seeds. The rest of the potential seeds are as clear as mud.
Here are some things that we know:
- The PSAC is not as strong as years past. They are knocking each other off and some of the losses are really hurting their rankings right now. If Slippery Rock wins the championship game, there is no guarantee that they make the playoffs. It will be the first time since the game was brought back that might be the case. But would the committee move the Rock higher than California since they won the head-to-head match-up?
- My guess that the CIAA would not get two teams in the playoffs seems to be off right now. With the second and third teams in the region right now, the loser of the game might not fall that far in the rankings with the winner earning a first round bye.
- The NE-10 will get a team in the playoffs for the first time in three years. With a New Haven win this weekend, they should have one of the top two seeds in the playoffs and host a playoff game. They have the best OAWP of the contenders in the region. It is starting to look like 1997 in New Haven when they made a run to the national championship game.
- The WVIAC is playing themselves out of the playoffs. Wesleyan looked like a lock before they stumbled last weekend. And have another tough game this weekend. Shepherd looks to be too far down to make it but earned access is a real possibility for the WVIAC. They used it last in 2008 when Seton Hill made the playoffs.
- Out of conference scheduling is helping and hurting some teams right now. Kutztown and West Virginia Wesleyan are the only two teams in the top ten that have an OAWP under .400. Kutztown played St. Anselm who is now 1-8. The Bears were also hurt with a crossover game against Lock Haven. WV Wesleyan played a now 3-7 Millersville and Bentley who is 5-4 against D2 teams. A win or two more by Bentley would have helped Wesleyan be more firmly planted in the top six.
- It pays to win football games on the field and defeat teams with a record under .500. WV Wesleyan and Slippery Rock are the only top ten teams to fall to a team with a record under .500 right now and both of them are on the cusp of the playoffs. A win by both of those teams in those games and they are in better playoff position right now.
It should be an exciting weekend of football through the region. The playoff pairings will be announced Sunday.
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Kutztown's game with Cheyney was a PSAC East divisional game, while the Lock Haven game was a crossover.