#6 Fort Valley (8-3 overall) @ #3 Lenoir-Rhyne (8-2 overall)
Noon - Hickory, N.C.
Spread = LRU (-14)
Last meeting: Never

The first ever playoff game in NCAA Division II history for the Lenoir-Rhyne Bears is just a day away. 365 days ago the Bears sat in the near same spot, except this time on the outside looking in. They reset their goals and accomplished the number one focus: make the playoffs. Pretty good three year stretch for LR. 2010 clinch first winning season in 17 years, 2011 clinch first SAC championship in 18 years, and now they go the next step into the field of 24. Can they get there and win a game? We will find out sure enough but it has been a good run for SAC teams in first round. History shows the SAC has a 9-1 record in the first round of the Playoffs since 2000. Pretty solid mark. Remember Mars Hill's loss came in the second round last season.

What hasn't gone right for the Bears since Reuben Haynes came back in week 5? Pretty much nothing. They score on offense, defense, and special teams. Haynes goes down in Concord game, team falters late and loses. Next week, LR beats a bad Davidson team then gets trounced at Carson-Newman to sit at 1-2. But it was week four that got them going. A bye week. As I said in my column, that was exactly what they needed. Haynes came back the very next week and Lenoir-Rhyne has won seven straight, all by double figures. The closest game was a 13 point win over Mars Hill. They have scored 52, 51, 44 three times, and 34 twice. That is really pouring it on against some solid SAC defenses.

The most impressive part has to be the second half domination. They outscored their opponents 113-35 in the second half of their last four games.

Trailed by 4 vs MH at half, won by 13.
Led by 4 @ WU, won by 31
Led by 6 @ NC, won by 23
Led by 14 vs CC, won by 30

Immediately you want to attribute that to dominant defense but to me it comes down to the Bear Bone offensive attack wearing down the opponent. And Carson-Newman has done the same thing over the past month (more on them next week).

Fort Valley is coming off their second loss of the season to Tuskegee. They lost 49-18 during the regular season and were beaten 55-24 six weeks later (Saturday) in the SIAC championship game. The SIAC has dropped four straight first round games to the SAC since 2006. Three of those games involved Albany State and the other Morehouse. All four of those SAC teams in those playoff games versus the SIAC were passing attacks. Wingate won by 22, Tusculum by 12, Catawba by 31 and Newberry by 6. Haffly, Russell, Roach, and Stepp all led those teams through the air. I say that because passing teams are something you can simulate to a degree in practice. Something you can work on week in and out. The Lenoir-Rhyne Bear Bone number one rushing attack? Not so much.

SAC coaches (that don't run the option) have told me they have a section each week of practice devoted to option during every week. Not just the week they face one of the three SAC option teams. I can't imagine Fort Valley did that. They don't ever see it. And if they do, I promise you it isn't loaded like the Bears.

It may be hard to focus through the first quarter because of the emotion running through the stadium and energy the Bears will have because of the historic moment. I remember Wingate's first ever playoff game in 2010. Scored on first drive then gave up 17 straight including a fumble that was returned for a TD and trailed by 10 at end of first. They got a chance to catch their breath and outscored Morehouse 56-24 the rest of the way. I can see that happening to the Bears. Good for the Bears, they have allowed just one first quarter score in the past four games.

On the other hand, the Wildcats have been a great first quarter team this season on defense as well. Just 45 points allowed in 11 games is something to keep an eye on. Linebacker Leron Furr was the defensive player of the year in the SIAC and leads the country with a ridiculous 29 tackles for loss. But after what Tuskegee was able to do against the FVSU front seven, you have to believe the Bears can do the same. Tuskegee back Derrick Washington ran for 224 yards on a 14 yard average per carry. In their first meeting, Washington went for 218. Again, their is no reason for the Bears to change anything. Just keep doing what got you to the playoffs and the rest will take care of itself. Like Carson-Newman, the Bear offense has so many weapons and you end up game-planning for an area instead of a player. You game plan for the dive, the option keeper, and the option pitch. Check out some of the averages per rush: Spears 13.7, Whitaker 4.7, Haynes 6.0, Duncan 9.8 and Beaty 5.5. Everyone is getting halfway to a first down on every touch.

I think the Bears will get a big play through the air as well. Historically the teams that don't see the option much get so focused on the run that a bootleg goes for a big score. Fort Valley is led by quarterback Antonio Henton who has some weapons but is also turnover prone, having been picked off 18 times. He also is only completing 49% of his passes. Bad news for the Wildcats against the number four team in the NCAA D2 in turnover margin.

With all that being said, I see the game being won in three categories:

Number one is on third down. Lenoir-Rhyne is converting at a 46% rate this year while Fort Valley only converted 31% on third down. If the FVSU defense can't get off the field they have no shot. And if the Wildcat offense keeps turning in three-and-outs, then they won't be able to keep up.

Number two is at the line of scrimmage. Lenoir-Rhyne offensive line continues to wear down teams all year. The heart of this Fort Valley defense is in the middle and must get a push up front and read the option from Haynes. And on the reverse side the FVSU offensive line has to give Henton time to make plays and stay on the field.

Number three is the intangibles: big plays, mindset, nerves,and poise. Who can commit the least penalties, shake off the pressure from being on a national stage and continue the game plan regardless of what is going on in the game. Who can get bust open a big play and who can respond best from the opponents first shot. Moretz Stadium can control some of this and you can expect a big crowd to do their part.

Prediction: Lenoir-Rhyne 42, Fort Valley State 21


Prediction: West Alabama 31, Miles 21