#3 Lenoir-Rhyne (9-2 overall) @ #2 Carson-Newman (8-2 overall)
Noon - Jefferson City, Tenn. (Burke-Tarr Stadium)
Last meeting (Sept. 15 in Jefferson City) = Carson-Newman 47 , Lenoir-Rhyne 23
Spread = C-N (-3.5)


Before we get in to the showdown in Tennessee this weekend, I want to wish everyone a late, but Happy Thanksgiving and hope you enjoy the holiday weekend. Among many, many other things in life, I am thankful for D2fotball.com. I am thankful for Brandon, JR, Kevin, Bob and all of the other many columnists and those behind the scenes. I am also thankful to my blog readers and message board members. Thankful for the hard work from each institutions staff members, coaches, players, and other personnel. D2 athletics feature some great people and athletes that don't get nearly enough attention. Thanks to this great site, the football side of it is celebrated and discussed. Take a moment and imagine an entire football season without this site? You can't tell me you wouldn't miss it badly.

Also, I want to look back to LR/FVSU game and give credit to the Fort Valley St defense for their efforts (minus the classless last two minutes where they got three personal fouls called and could have been more).

If you just look at numbers you would think the wrong team won.
Team A: 1 turnover, 334 yards, 3rd down (6-18),
Team B: 3 turnovers, 276 yards, 3rd down (3-13),


Here is where it went wrong. Team A: 1-5 in red zone, 0 big plays, 0 pts off TO's
Team B: 1-2 in red zone, 3 big plays, 7 points off TO's

Team B is LR and they win the game.Lenoir-Rhyne's three touchdowns came on a one play drive, a 1 yard run on a drive that started on a huge kick-off return, and an INT return for TD. Fort Valley's offense just can't expect to win a playoff game going 1-5 in red zone, two of those 1st and goal situations. I think the Bears will be happy to survive and advance at this point but I'm sure they will tell you that they did not have their best day on offense. Some of that probably nerves and some of that the Wildcat defense but maybe most of it looking ahead to this week. Can you blame them? Who wasn't?

On to the game we have all been waiting on since the playoff seeds came out. The Bears and the Eagles for the second time in Mossy Creek. It will have been 70 days since the first meeting and so much has changed since September 15. Lenoir-Rhyne left that day with many question marks and a 1-2 record. Carson-Newman seemed to be rolling but lost their next two. Since then the teams have combined to win 14 straight games. One streak comes to an end Saturday.

Having said all that, you can't even reference the first meeting. Too long ago and too many different variables. Plus, it is pretty obvious what you have to ask when you have number one and number two rushing offenses in entire country. Which defense will be more successful? Here are some other variables:

Fumbles:In the offense both run, protecting the football is always priority number one. Carson-Newman has fumbled 24 times but only lost 10 while the Bears coughed it up 36 times but only losing 18. That tells you how many of these are in the backfield on a bad exchange or a missed pitch but are easily recovered. Carson-Newman has played in games where they fumbled 6 times & lost none of them and then games when they lost all three. Lenoir-Rhyne, with back up quarterbacks fumbled five times at CN and lost them all. I don't think that happens again this week but it could be in the back of their minds. Heavy pressure falls on Eagle quarterback Brandon Haywood (13 fumbles) and Bear quarterback Rueben Haynes (12 fumbles). Both teams will cough it up a time or two but the team that can keep them take a big advantage in thisgame.

Special Teams: A part of college football that is too often overlooked and both of these teams have very good units. The Eagles are led by kicker Curt Duncan who can split the uprights from 50 yards and beyond. Lenoir-Rhyne kicker Zac Neuman also had a solid year but missed two field goals last week.The Bears are also the only special teams to return a punt for a TD in the SAC. Given, it came on a block but they proved they can get after the punter. Lenoir-Rhyne also returned a kick to the one yard line last week against Fort Valley to set up eventual second score of day. The Eagles longest kick return this year is 35 yards. Look for someone to make a game-changing play or two to make a huge difference in this game.

Passing: Sounds crazy for the way these two teams move the ball on the ground but the ability to mix it up on the four to eight pass attempts a game can really change the game. Haynes is averaging 4 attempts per game in the last four, while Haywood is averaging 10 a game in last four. If the Eagles get a big play, it will most likely be in hands of Jason Brown, who has 6 TD's in 14 receptions. The Eagles have attempted twice as many as the Bears so it seems it will come from them but you just never know. Haynes has thrown just one TD in last five games so he could be due.

Mental Side: These two offenses depend so much on being mentally tough and patient. So many times during their winning streaks we have seen them wear down the opposing defenses. And in turn the opposing defenses can not take any plays off during the quick strike offenses they will face. The good news is they see that happen week in and out during the season when teams face off against their opposing offenses. Must be focused and ready every play. Also, where was Lenoir-Rhyne's mentality last week? Was it a case of them looking ahead? Or are they mentally and physically worn out from playing eight straight weeks? The Eagles played nine weeks in a row but earned the bye week. Will 14 days off help the Eagles or make them rusty? Who can handle the national stage as the pressure is continuing to mount each week? Whoever handles the pressure and gets the mental edge wins.

Sparks : Carson-Newman is 15-1 all-time under hall of famer Ken Sparks at home in the playoffs. Also, do not underestimate the Eagles players mindset and thoughts about their head coach. They know he has been through so much this season, battling cancer while still devoting his heart and mind to this 2012 Eagle team . Who knows how much longer he can coach or even wants to coach. Regardless of how much longer he stays on the sidelines, how many great chances like this will he have? There is no doubt the Eagles want to win but you have to believe they want it even more for Sparks.

I've have gone back and forth all week on this one but the home field advantage gets the nod.



Prediction: Carson-Newman 28, Lenoir-Rhyne 24