Wow...hard to believe a month of the season is already behind us and we're ticking the calendar over to October. While the league certainly doesn't look or feel the same as it has in a while, I would say the Region (and one could argue the nation) doesn't look or feel the same either. We'll talk more about that in the weeks to come as we start taking a closer look at the playoff picture another four or five weeks from now, but even at this point there are some big things going on in the league...

- Grand Valley is, of course, the biggest. When you have a six-time defending league champ who lost two total conference games during those six seasons drop their first three league games out of the gate, it is certainly major news and things around the GLIAC are gonna look, well, kinda funny.
- Saginaw Valley so far has bounced back from a crummy 2010.
- Wayne is holding serve so far looking for its first ever playoff berth.
- Clubs like Hillsdale, Northern, Ashland and Tech have a lot of control over what lies ahead of them, and can still reach seasonal goals if they can avoid mis-steps.

As I have often mentioned over the years, clarity doesn't really enter the equation until weeks nine or ten. While I'm not ready to speculate about what we'll see during October, I'm not shy about stating that it will be interesting to watch happen and to see if/which different folks will be keeping things going into November.

As for this weekend...

#21 Michigan Tech (2-1, 3-1) at Ohio Dominican (1-2, 2-2)

After their bounce-back win over UIndy a week ago, Tech heads for Columbus to take on Ohio Dominican. The Panthers pestered Wayne State a week ago, and would like nothing more than to prove once again that they can hang with...or even knock off one of the league's elite.

Tech Keys:
- Succesful Roadie - I know, I bag on the UP teams like crazy when they go on the road...especially to Ohio. Facts are facts, however...neither Tech nor Northern seem to function as well on these long jaunts. But they usually make up for it by being better at home and forcing their opponents to suffer from the same malaise that ten+ hours on a bus will cause. Nevertheless, the Huskies need to focus and get the job done.
- Patience is a Virtue - ODU's offense has been more potent so far (28.2 ppg) than Tech's (25.5 ppg). Of course, the Panthers have not faced many defenses like MTU's either. I think over the course of the game the Tech D can be the difference, they just need to keep getting off the field and let the offense execute its game plan. Over time, Tech's talent and size should prove difference-makers.

ODU Keys:
- No Fear - They didn't show it against league front-runner Wayne State last week, so I doubt they'll show any here. Getting into the game early and not falling behind is important.
- On the Mike - Panther running back Mike Noffsinger is second in the league in rushing, and even kept his 100-yard game streak going last week against a very good Wayne rush defense. Since the ODU passing game is not able to carry the load yet, the Panthers need to make sure that Noffsinger has running lanes and can keep the sticks moving.

Prediction:
The more games Ohio Dominican plays this year, the more they seem to indicate they are moving in the right direction. While I think the toll of playing a couple of top-end opponents in a row will take effect, I still like them to keep this one interesting. Tech is the better team (stronger D, more balanced O) and should close it out in the second half, but I don't see this one being a cakewalk by any stretch for the Huskies...especially on the road. Tech 28, Ohio Dominican 20.


Ashland (2-1, 2-2) at Northwood (0-3, 1-3)

Despite a couple of tough losses, 2-2 Ashland has to be feeling OK at the moment. They have played everyone tough thus far, including trouncing previously unbeaten Northern Michigan a week ago. The Eagles now hit the road to visit a reeling Northwood that has dropped three straight after getting a week one victory.

Ashland Keys:
- Don't Sell Out - While Northwood is a run-first bunch, Ashland should play its keys and not overload to stop the run. Why? NU can still hit you over the top and the Eagle pass defense is in the bottom half of the league. I don't put more pressure on that group by putting them on islands more than is necessary, even though having Logan Kerr back in the line-up is helping the back end a great deal.
- Stick with what Works - Over the last five+ years, AU's offense has been known for being "high-powered" and has thrown the ball over the lot. This year, the Eagles are next to last in the league in pass offense...and so what? They are churning out almost 200 yards a game on the ground and are getting great production from freshman Jordan McCune. D.J. McCoy is getting healthier by the week and should continue to see more carries as well, making the Eagle backfield a strong and deep one. And as far as Saturday goes, NU is next to last in the league in stopping the run. 'Nuff said.

Northwood Keys:
- Run stop...anyone? - OK, so AU has been running the ball well...and NU can't stop it. BAD combination for the T'Wolves. They must find a way to get the Eagles into passing situations so that the inexperienced receiving corps of Ashland has to make plays. If Northwood doesn't force this, they will be in trouble.
- Praying Mathis - Wide-out Quilan Mathis is a proven big-play guy in this league, and yet he only has one TD through four games. I know NU is an option/run-first offense but when you have a guy with ability like that, finding creative ways to get him the ball is never a bad idea.

Prediction:
While hitting the road in this league is always tough, home field is one of the few advantages I see for Northwood in this one. AU has been more consistent so far, and I also think that The Woodies sank a ton of effort and emotion into last week's Axe Bowl with arch-rival Saginaw Valley. This one looks pretty one-sided to me. Ashland 40, Northwood 16.


#7 Wayne State (3-0, 4-0) at Northern Michigan (2-1, 3-1)

It's back-to-back roadies for Wayne after spending their first three weeks of the year at home. The Warriors staved off a pesky ODU crew last week, and should get an even tougher test on Saturday in Marquette. Northern is coming off their first loss of the season, and doesn't tend to be too friendly to the "trolls" (you know, we folks that live "under the bridge") that visit. Wayne hasn't won in the Yooperdome since 2003, so we'll see if they can buck that trend.

Wayne Keys:
- Even Steven - While the WSU passing game hasn't been overwhelming this year, it has been more consistent and FAR less mistake-prone than in recent seasons. This balance is what every good offense needs, especially on the road in a tough environment. Kudos to QB Mickey Mohner and the receiving corp for the work they have accomplished so far in 2011, they need to keep it going in this one.
- Front Seven must be Big - We all know that the NMU offense revolves around QB Carter Kopach. So, the Wayne front needs to stuff him when he runs (which is still frequent), and find a way to hurry/hit/sack him when he's back to pass. Kopach was sacked three times and picked twice a week ago, and the 'Cat offense sputtered. There's no better way to keep someone else's Homecoming crowd quiet than to force their best player off his game.

Northern Keys:
- Get out Quick - Wayne has pretty much handled everyone they have played so far this season. What they haven't had to do is play from behind very much. The Wildcats need to get out fast in this one, and keep their crowd frenzied. If the patrons start heading for the aisles/taligate lots early, Wayne has the ponies to close the deal from there.
- Protect the Ball - Turnovers hurt the 'Cats last week, and they have not been especially opportunistic on defense this year. Wayne, on the other hand, loves to generate takeaways and put you on your heels. Northern must not set WSU up with good field position, nor can they give away scoring chances if they have a good drive going.

Prediction:
I think Wayne has to be REALLY careful here. While I think they are the superior team, Northern is not a push over on any level...especially at their own place. Add to that the Warriors are off to their best start in 44 years and this group is actually in some unchartered territory. Getting this one in a tough environment could go a long way toward how they handle the rest of the year, as they have a few more really tough roadies in front of them. I'll take the Warriors, but I'll admit there's something about the pick/game that makes me really uneasy. Wayne 31, Northern 29.


Findlay (2-1, 2-2) at Indianapolis (1-2, 2-2)

It's been a LONG time since we've had a match-up of "the last two teams to beat Grand Valley". Key Stadium will host such an affair this weekend as both clubs will be in search of the good side of .500.

Findlay Keys:
- Nickels and Dimes - UIndy is a pass-first group this year, and have moved the ball well on most of their opponents via the air. The Oiler secondary needs to be ready as there will likely be air-raid sirens when the Greyhounds are on offense.
- Avoid the Hangover - Last Saturday's win over Grand Valley was a HUGE win for a young coaching staff, new quarterback, and the program in general. It happens all too often that a team comes out flat the week after an emotional effort like that. UF needs to keep the chops up on the road here.

UIndy Keys:
- Mind the Assignments - With the Belton/Williams combination Findlay possesses, their zone-read rushing attack is potent without doing a whole lot else. UIndy has to find a way to make sure they're hitting both of them on every play and avoid allowing big chunks of yardage.
- Rebound Game - The Greyhounds had a tough outing last week on the road against a Tech team rebounding from a road loss. It's UIndy's turn for that kind of bounce-back, especially on offense as the 'Hounds really never got it going last week.

Prediction:
While Findlay has been competitive in each of its games, I like the home-standing Greyhounds in this one. While there is little doubt that the Oilers are an improved team, UIndy is far better than what they showed a week ago and I think they'll get back on track. I like the 'Hounds at home. Indianapolis 27, Findlay 20.


Lake Erie (0-3, 1-3) at Ferris State (2-1, 3-1)

The Storm have to be disappointed with their lackluster start to the GLIAC slate. After playing quite well as last season progressed, they have yet to really get things in 2011...although they did show signs of life last week against Hillsdale. As for Ferris, they are continuing to hold serve (much like last year) against the teams they should. This year's version of the Bulldogs seems intent on proving that the second half of the year will be different, and not mis-stepping here keeps them headed in that direction.

Lake Erie Keys:
- Signs of Life? - After getting, well, clobbered in their first couple of league outings LEC gave first-place Hillsdale fits last Saturday. Sean Bedevelsky isn't setting the world on fire just yet with his numbers, but the offense did move the ball much better last weekend. Keeping that going on the road will be the trick.
- Signs of, er, Death - The offense aside, LEC's defense has to be better. They're yielding 37 points per game in league play thus far. That's gonna get you beat on a regular basis.

Ferris Keys:
- Keep it Rolling - The Bulldog offense seems to be improving by the week, especially in its approach. Sometimes, they run all over folks. in other outings, Tom Schneider slings it for 300+. Having the ability to take what the defense gives is a massive luxury...and the LEC defense has been giving a lot so far. As long at the Bulldog offense avoids mistakes, they should be able to score plenty.
- Snuff it Out - I mention Sean Bedevelsky possibly "warming up" as his performance was improved last week. If he's developing any sort of rhythm, the Bulldogs need to be on watch. He's got the ability to take over a game, which FSU needs to avoid.

Prediction:
While I think LEC can make somethings happen in this one, I'm pretty confident that Ferris should be able to handle things at home. Until The Storm defense finds a way to slow opposing offenses down, they're going to have a hard time notching many W's. Ferris 41, Lake Erie 28.


Tiffin (0-3, 0-4) at Grand Valley (0-3, 1-3)

Wow. Hard believe that Grand Valley will be taking part in a battle of winless GLIAC clubs in October. It's been 12 years or so since that could be said. While it's a surprise, that's where the Lakers are at the moment. If they're going to have any hope of righting the ship and taking on the role of spoiler for the rest of the season, they need to shut out what has happened over the last three weeks and focus on the task at hand: knocking off a team that they have over-matched and is struggling even worse than they are.

Tiffin Keys:
- Do what Works - As has been the case for a few seasons, the Dragon ground game doesn't pack much punch. So, they have thrown it extensively and have actually managed to move it with some consistency. Hey, this is the week to leverage that as the Grand Valley secondary hasn't done much to prove that it can stop people like it has in the past. The Lakers are giving up more than 244 yards per game via the air...next to worst in the league. Tiffin has attempted 40+ passes more than any other team in the GLIAC thus far. Should be a whole lot a slingin' going on Saturday.
- Stop the Run - If Tiffin actually wants to have the ball enough to throw it around, they'll need to keep the Laker offense on the sidelines. Tough task given the Dragons are allowing a GLIAC-worst 292 yards per game on the ground. Grand Valley's line play has been solid so far, and both Norman Shuford and Hersey Jackson have been running great. If TU can't keep the Lakers off the field, they'll never get a chance to test the GV secondary.

Grand Valley Keys:
- Don't Sheath Heath - GV QB Heath Parling has had his struggles thus far, which is not all that unexpected of a sophomore in his first four starts. He's also flashed some brilliance, and a weak TU defense is a great opportunity to have him continue to work on his craft and improve. While running the ball shouldn't be difficult for GV in this one, this is also a good opportunity to let Parling get his reps via the air as well. The work will be beneficial in the coming weeks.
- Clean it Up! - I have to admit this is a bizarre sentence to write, but Grand Valley is last in the league in turnover margin at -11. Obviously, until this gets corrected they're going to make every outing that much tougher on themselves. Ball security needs to get fixed, and fast.

Prediction:
Look, no offense intended to Tiffin but this is still a massive mis-match. Grand Valley's -11 turnover margin has been created in just the last three games. So, a team that has been that horrible with the ball lost those three games by a total of ten points? Sorry, the Lakers are in a funk for sure but the notion that this isn't a team loaded with talent is a mis-guided one. I can't say whether or not the funk will lift, but even a hazy GV is better than what we've seen from TU thus far...especially in Allendale. Grand Valley 45, Tiffin 25.


#20 Hillsdale (3-0, 3-1) at Saginaw Valley (3-0, 3-0)

The highlight of the GLIAC weekend takes place in University Center, as a pair of the remaining league-unbeatens get after it. After an early stumble, Hillsdale is up to its old tricks of hanging on to the ball all day with between-the-tackles running and short, efficient passing. As for the Cardinals, they are out to show that their resurgence after last year has some serious legs and that they are back as a contender for GLIAC supremacy.

Hillsdale Keys:
- Show more than Joe - While RB Joe Glendening is still the focal point of the Charger offense, his yards-per-carry average is only at 3.7 this year. He's getting it done, but not with the huge chunks he was ripping off last season. The SV rush defense is third in the league and only yielding 102 yards per contest, so Anthony Misfud and the passing attack need to be ready to do a bit more of the heavy lifting.
- Secondary is Primary - The Cardinals are leading the league in passing offense and have some big play guys like Nick Gallina and Jeff Janis causing major headaches for opposing defenses. The bottle of Advil sits in the Charger duffle bag this week, and they need to find a way to curb the 286 yards per game the Cards are generating via the air.

Saginaw Valley Keys:
- Get off the Field - Both of these clubs are at 50% or better in third-down efficiency. However, Hillsdale's defense is doing a far better job of stopping opponents on third down than the Cardinal defense is. If the Chargers can grind clock and keep the pace of the game a bit slower, it's that much harder for Jonathon Jennings and crew to get it going. The Cardinal defense can't allow HC to convert consistently on third down.
- Pop Quiz - Outside of an improved Ferris club, this is the first big test for Saginaw this year. How they handle a team that can match them physically and disrupt their style of play will prove crucial, especially with a maturing, but still young quarterback (Jennings).

Prediction:
Tough call here. Hillsdale is certainly more proven over the last couple of seasons, but they have also not looked their best on the road. While it'll be a struggle, I'm going with Saginaw Valley's explosive passing game. So far, HC has only generated six sacks on the season. That lack of pressure on the quarterback might be just the edge that SV needs. Saginaw 30, Hillsdale 23.