As I mentioned in my other post, I'm not a fan of trying to figure out what the heck will happen with playoff possibilities until we're down to the last week of the season...just to much that can happen between now and then. With that in mind, let's just focus on what we have this Saturday, shall we?


Lake Erie (0-7, 1-7) at Ohio Dominican (3-4, 4-4)

This is a battle between "expectations unmet", and "expectations exceeded". The Storm played well down the stretch last year (sans their last game or two without Sean Bedevelsky) and were on a lot of radars to be "most improved" in 2011. Ohio Dominican, on the other hand, wasn't receiving much notice heading into the year but now sits at .500 and can play their way into a winning record over the next three weeks.

Lake Erie Keys:
- Stack the Box - It's yet another bad match-up for LEC, as they are next to last in the league in stopping the run and they'll face the GLIAC's second-most proficient ground game. Finding a way to force the Panthers into passing situations is a must...although it's a scary must as LEC is last in the league against the pass. For us, it's about playing the percentages...ODU's pass offense is not as strong as the ground game, so make them do what they'd really rather not.
- Get a Lead... a BIG Lead - One way to make the Panthers uncomfortable and pass more often is to get them behind. If ODU is never behind more than 10 points (especially in the first half), it's unlikely that they'll get too far from their gameplan/what they want to do. The Storm need to put a hurt on early.

Ohio Dominican Keys:
- Match Hats - The Panthers have to maintain their assignments when trying to defend the O employed by LEC. Sean Bedevelsky and crew have been moving the ball much better over the last four weeks and have come close to breaking through with a win. If they get a few more big plays, ODU could find itself in a bad spot. Giving up some yardage, is fine, but big/scoring plays would be a problem.
- Mucho Mike - Running back Mike Noffisnger needs only 92 yards to get to the 1,000 yard plateau for the year. The school's all-time leading rusher is their biggest offensive weapon, and I'd make sure he gets at least 20-25 carries in this one.

Prediction:
We talked last week about how Lake Erie would give Findlay fits...and they did. We think the same thing here...The Storm will give the Panthers fits, but a win on the road against a team that can run the ball and control pace as well as ODU can just makes it tough to pick the upset. If Lake Erie is +2 or better in turnover margin, we like their chances. Anything less and the Panthers defend home turf. Ohio Dominican 32, Lake Erie 29.


Findlay (5-2, 5-3) at Ashland (5-2, 5-3)

This rivalry is one of the oldest in the GLIAC, dating all the way back to 1924. The Eagles have posted six wins in their last seven outings against the Oilers, but are coming into this one limping a bit after a mistake/turnover-riddled performance on national TV last week at Saginaw Valley. Both clubs still have very real league aspirations, and faint playoff ones as well. A loss here squashes both of those fronts.

Findlay Keys:
- Cash In - Ashland's offense this year is a run-first outfit, and they are going to do what they can to control pace. This may very well mean a limited number of possessions for UF so they'll need to make them count. Three-and-outs, turnovers, and empty red zone trips will be magnified in this one.
- Belton Balance - While Findlay has the best ground game in the league, the sledding will be a bit tougher in this one as they'll face an AU defense that is third in the GLIAC against the run. Quarterback Clay Belton will need to have the passing game going in this one so the Oiler attack is balanced. They will have a tougher time moving the ball without effectively stretching the field.

Ashland Keys:
- Bounce Back - There's no getting around the fact that AU basically laid an egg last week at Saginaw Valley. Three missed FG's, multiple trips inside the Cardinal 30 with no points, five turnovers...it was a whole lotta ugly. The Eagles must shake that one off and get back to playing like the team that knocked off Wayne State only a few days prior.
- Top Taylor - Ashland quarterback Taylor Housewright was dinged-up last week at Saginaw, and frankly he looked like it. We're not trying to knock the kid...being hurt and then playing after not practicing is going to make anyone look rough. Since that quick turnaround, the junior has healed up and is cleared to go. He needs a solid performance in this one and must lead his offense with mistake-free precision.

Prediciton:
We'll admit that there's something about this game that we don't like for Ashland. Frankly, the number of solid performances from them this year is not greater than their outings that were rough. With all that said, all three of their losses were on the road and they're back home for this one. In addition, they've had two extra days to rest and prepare for this rivalry game, and we don't see them turning the ball over five times for the second straight week. Last, and this one is the biggest factor to us: both clubs are run-first teams...Ashland is third in the GLIAC at stopping the run, while Findlay is twelfth. Advantage, Eagles. Ashland 23, Findlay 17.


Northwood (1-6, 2-6) at Hillsdale (5-2, 5-3)

While both clubs are coming off tough losses, only one of the two was actually in their game. Northwood was dumped by Tech in a game that wasn't as close as the score might indicate, while Hillsdale dropped a double-overtime heartbreaker to Wayne State. The Chargers were already on thin playoff ice and a loss here would cause them to fall through. Hillsdale looks to get back on track here, but may have to do so without their best player.

Northwood Keys:
- Do something...Anything - Look, we realize that injuries and whatnot have made things tough on The Woodies this year, especially at quarterback. However, despite being thrown to the fire last week QB Dan Nugent completed no passes and NU had no passing yards. Moving the ball is hard enough, and it's even more difficult without any balance. Northwood has to find a way to get something going in the air as a one-dimensional attack just won't cut it. We have yet to hear who is expected to start under center for NU this week, but they'll certainly have their work cut out for them.
- Take the Punch - Northwood better be ready for a Hillsdale offense to come out screaming on Saturday. They out-gained Wayne by more than 100 yards last week, but gave the ball away twice in the Warrior red zone. They HAVE to feel like they more than had their chances to win that game, and we look for them to be crisp out of the tunnel Saturday. If Northwood can't get a couple of early stops, they'll be in big trouble.

Hillsdale Keys:
- Clean up the Act - As we just mentioned, HC lost the turnover battle a week ago and it cost them the game. Add to that WHERE on the field the turnovers happened and that makes it worse. The Chargers have NU out-matched, so don't let them stay in the game by helping them out.
- Swab the Deck - I'm not belaboring Hillsdale's need to play with fewer mistakes. Rather, I'm suggesting they need to take advantage of Northwood's. NU has fumbled the ball 23 times this year...yep, almost three times per game. A team that puts the ball on the deck that much is just asking for trouble. Hillsdale needs to be sure that trouble is what NU gets by getting on as many of those as they can.

Prediction:
While Joe Glendening's availability appears to be a game-time decision, we aren't all that concerned with whether or not he'll be able to go. Hillsdale should be able to move the ball with their short passing game regardless, especially against an NU defense that allows more than 216 yards per game via the air. Add in an Northwood offense that is only averaging ten points per game over the last four weeks and we just don't see Hillsdale dropping this one. Hillsdale 28, Northwood 12.


Tiffin (0-7, 0-8) at Northern Michigan (2-5, 3-5)

It's a battle of skids in Marquette this Saturday. Northern will try and end it's five-gamer, while Tiffin rolls north with its very unfortunate 18-game schneid shackling them.

Tiffin Keys:
- Pitt'Em - It appears that James Capello might be a week or two away from being healthy enough to return to the line-up. While that is a tough break, it's hard to ignore that since taking over as the starting quarterback Dan Pitts has proven he can move the Dragon offense...especially via the air. Northern is tenth in the league against the pass, so TU should be able to move the ball in this one.
- Play at least SOME Defense - Tiffin allows nearly 52 points per game. That just isn't going to work against anyone. Northern has been looking for a "get healthy" game, and TU has to not let it be this one.

Northern Keys:
- Keep it Running - We have to give Northern a TON of credit. After several anemic offensive games, they really moved the ball well at Indianapolis last week and even had a two touchdown lead in the early going. A couple of turnovers kinda derailed things, but in general the offense did very well. If they can work it in a similar fashion this week they should have no issues.
- Do the Work - Look, when you see a team come into your place giving up almost 52 a game and only putting up 14 for themselves it would be real easy to take them lightly. Northern needs to prepare the right way and make the plays.

Prediction:
It's hard for us to give Tiffin a chance in most games until they really prove they deserve one. The U.P. is where most road teams (especially the ones from Ohio) go to die, and we expect that to be the case here. Northern Michigan 51, Tiffin 21.


Indianapolis (5-2, 6-2) at Ferris State (4-3, 5-3)

While it is fair to presume that the Greyhounds expected to have a solid final season in the GLIAC, we're not sure if even they thought they would enter Week Nine with legitimate shots at a division title and a playoff berth. That's where they sit, but they do enter a tough stretch of their schedule as two of their last three are on the road and the lone home date comes against league front-runner Wayne State. In this one, they'll head to Big Rapids to face a Ferris bunch that may still be woozy from the pounding they received at the hands of arch-rival Grand Valley a week ago.

Indianapolis Keys:
- Sling Away - Greyhound quarterback Chris Mills enters the game as the GLIAC's top passer by more than 20 yards per game. He'll face a Ferris defense that had defended the pass pretty well (at least statistically), but was torched for 399 yards last week in Allendale. No doubt the UIndy folks have seen that tape and will look to exploit FSU's weaknesses in a similar fashion. Mills is coming of a 415 yard outing of his own, so look for him to keep it hot.
- Stay the Course - The Greyhounds are actually wandering a bit into uncharted territory. It's been a while since they've played a game with this much on the line, and while it seems funny to suggest that they might look past a team with a winning record it's not inconceivable when considering they face the league's top team in a week. UI needs to handle the next task in front of them, and that's a Ferris team that wants to prove it's better than what everyone saw a week ago.

Ferris Keys:
- Pound It - After harping on Northern about their ground game for most of the season, the Wildcats racked up 232 yards on the ground at UIndy last week. Ferris MUST do something similar, and at face value they should be able to with a solid runner at quarterback in Tom Schneider. While no true lead back has emerged since Skyler Stoker's injury, that same spot was regularly in question for NMU as well prior to last week's outburst. Schneider left last Saturday's game late after getting dinged. If he can go, he and the Bulldogs need to run the ball well to have a shot.
- Gotta Stay Close - The 'Dawgs were down 28-0 less than 16 minutes into the game last week. While they have shown that they CAN come back, their offense really isn't built for it. They need to be able to run the ball and keep a steady pace for them to be in good shape. Ferris must not get jumped on again this week.

Prediction:
While the Greyhounds and their four-game win streak are certainly the hotter of the two teams, this is absolutely not a gimme for them. In fact, one could argue that both of their last two outings were saved simply by the fact that they were able to get a couple of turnovers against their opponents...and that's a great recipe for winning, as UIndy leads the league with a +13 turnover margin. We're not sure what it is, but we think there is a rebound coming for Ferris and UIndy is due for a clunker (which they, to an extent, haven't really had). In a mild upset, we'll take Ferris 31, Indianapolis 28.


Michigan Tech (4-3, 5-3) at Grand Valley (4-3, 5-3)

It is safe to presume that prior to the season there were a lot of folks pointing to this contest as the likely North Division title game, and possibly the game that would decide the overall GLIAC Title. While this is still a big game and both clubs have a shot at the division (not to mention very faint playoff hopes), there weren't many that would have figured that this game would pit a couple of three-loss clubs that each had a stretch of games that saw them, well, struggle. As our pal Chris Berman says, "that's why they play the games". The Huskies make the trip to Allendale in search of a repeat of last year's victory over the Lakers. For Grand Valley, revenge is just one of the many driving factors that take them into this tilt.

Tech Keys:
- Offense must be Better - The MTU offense is tenth in the league in both scoring and total offense. With what the Lakers have been doing lately that kind of production simply isn't going to be enough. Both of their last two outings have been below their total offense average, so the Huskies must not let that trend continue.
- Answer the Bell - There is no argument that the Tech defense will be toughest that Grand Valley has faced this season. Be that as it may, it's hard to ignore that the Lakers have been on a tear to the tune of 57.5 points per game over the last four weeks. The Huskies must get stops early and often with that top-end defense, as their O just isn't wired for big comebacks...especially against a GV defense that has gotten steadily better over the last few games.

Grand Valley Keys:
- Pass Protect - Guys like Todd Storm and Drew Vanderlin make facing the MTU front really scary. Heath Parling has been unconscious the last few games, and a lot of that is due to the outstanding protection he has received. The Laker O-line has been great this year, and they'll need to be that and more in this one as the Huskies are going to do what they can to disrupt the young signal-caller and derail the GV offense.
- Don't giveaway Scoring Chances - Tech has a similar offensive model to Hillsdale in that both clubs like to possess the ball, run it, use short passes, etc. That sort of thing seems to really give the Lakers fits over the last few seasons. One of the direct results of a team that possesses the ball for almost 35 minutes a game like Tech does is that you get fewer possessions. Grand Valley can't make mistakes, especially in Tech's end as opportunities they don't cash in on will come back to haunt them.

Prediction:
Something's gotta give...Tech sports the league's top defense, and the Lakers have the GLIAC's number one offense. While GV has been tearing up defenses that aren't the same caliber as Tech's, it's hard to ignore how well that unit has been running of late. While the Husky defense will be a force, there is little argument that MTU's offense just isn't the same as it was a year ago. Unless Tech can stay near or on the lead we just have a hard time seeing them repeating last year's win, especially on the road for GV's homecoming. Grand Valley 26, Michigan Tech 17.


Saginaw Valley (5-2, 5-2) at #10 Wayne State (6-1, 7-1)

This week's marquis match-up features clubs who got lost two weeks ago, but were able to get bounce-back wins last week. Saginaw was done in by turnovers at Indy, but then turned the same trick against Ashland last week. Wayne on the other hand, blew a late lead at Ashland two weeks ago and nearly did the same at Hillsdale this past week before prevailing in overtime. League title implications are all over this one, not to mention the impact the game could have on the playoff picture.

Saginaw Keys:
- Jennings must be Good - Saginaw doesn't have the most proficient rushing attack, and the Warriors are tops in the league in stopping the run. With that in mind, SV quarterback Jonathon Jennings must have a solid, mistake-free outing to keep the Cardinal offense moving. If he gets picked a couple of times or struggles with his accuracy, it could compound any struggles they have with balance. The super-soph needs a big game.
- Secondary is Primary - SV has the fewest interceptions in the league with three, and only one of those has come from a DB. While Wayne isn't a pass-first outfit, when they do throw they aren't afraid to look downfield for big plays. The Cardinals need to force Mickey Mohner to make a couple of miscues. Takeaways are a must for Saginaw Valley in this one, and the DB's need to help out the cause more than they have this year.

Wayne Keys:
- Runnin' Renel - After being knicked-up for a few weeks, all-purpose guru Josh Renel is back on track. He racked up 272 total yards, including churning out 193 yards on the ground last week at Hillsdale. If he has another day like that, the Red-Birds will have a hard time keeping the Warriors off the scoreboard.
- Keep'em in Front of You - While we know Jonathon Jennings can sling it all over the lot, the Warriors need to not give up big plays. Guys like Nick Gallina and Jeff Janis are proven big-play guys, so the WSU secondary has to bend some but not break. If the SV WR's consistently get behind the Wayne back-end, there is no guarantee that WSU's offense will be able to keep up.

Prediction:
While Wayne has had a tendency to not put teams away, they've struggled with this more so on the road than at home. They are 9-1 in their last ten at the Jewel of the Lodge, and we feel like they have been the more consistent of the two clubs for the better part of the season. This should be a close one, but we like the Warriors. Wayne State 29, Saginaw Valley 24.