I've made everyone wait until right before Week Eleven gets going to throw my thoughts at this, and as I'm sure everyone is tired of hearing...that is my policy. Look, there's little sense to me of spending tons of time theorizing from one week to the next what the committee is going to churn out in terms of the seedings. As I have mentioned before but will note once again, the basic tenet everyone needs to remember is that while we can certainly understand the criteria the NCAA puts forth for selection we have NO WAY to know how the Committee is choosing to apply those criteria. Unless you're on their conference calls, how they're going to put things together will remain a mystery...and let's not forget it might not even be the same from region to region, so trying to come up with a "formula" of sorts might be fun but it just isn't likely to be accurate 100% of the time.

Alright, so let's get at it. Here's where things sit today:

1. CSU Pueblo, 10-0
2. Nebraska-Kearney, 9-1
3. Saginaw Valley, 7-2
4. Wayne State (MI), 8-2
5. St. Cloud State, 8-2
6. Minnesota State, 8-2
7. Duluth, 8-2
8. Hillsdale, 7-3
9. Indianapolis, 7-3
10. Colorado Mines, 8-2

About the only thing I can tell you for sure at the moment is that I would be willing to bet that Pueblo is in no matter what they do on Saturday. Even with a loss the Thunderwolves will still have the best record in the region and their SOS rating rating is going to wind up as the fourth best among all of the teams listed above. In fact, a loss may not even drop them from the top seed. Since they're playing an opponent they should have overmatched, I'm doubting they'll suffer a setback so for now the road to the SR3 title appears to be going through Colorado.

Beyond that, things get a little murkier. The current two-seed Kearney plays Mines Saturday. If Kearney wins, they would also be worthy of a wager that they're in. If Mines wins, I still see Kearney getting in as their SOS rating is the highest of all of the teams involved in the discussion. Mines, however, has the lowest SOS of any of the teams listed above so without a lot of help from some of the two-loss teams above them I'd say their chances are slim. Make no mistake, folks, if Mines wins the fact that they would hold head-to-head over Kearney is no guarantee that they'd be in. In fact, I would submit that in this case it wouldn't...Mines would still need help.

From there, let's focus on the GLIAC candidates. For Saginaw Valley, it's pretty much a "win-and-you're-in" type of thing from my vantage point. Their SOS rating will improve after playing Grand Valley and will be tops among all of the two-loss clubs should they win. It's pretty hard to see them out in that scenario. However, if they lose things get dicey. They'll still have that strong SOS going for them but could have a bunch of teams with fewer losses to deal with. You see, that's where things get hard to read...just how much better does a team's SOS rating have to be to overcome the fact that another team has a better win percentage and/or fewer losses? That's another one of those "only if you're on the call" deals from what I can discern. So in the end, Saginaw's chances are good either way, but a win would guarantee them a spot.

I think it's likely the same for Wayne State. Of the two-loss teams in the discussion, their SOS will trail only Saginaw's after Saturday so if they stay as a two-loss team it's hard to see them not making it. Drop Saturday's game with Findlay, and like I mentioned above we get into the realm of the "dicey". I won't venture to guess one way or the other on what would happen to Wayne should they lose, especially since Indianapolis suddenly jumps back into the conversation at that point with three losses (presuming they win against ODU). UIndy's SOS will wind up better than Wayne's after Saturday, but will how far ahead of Wayne in the analysis will put that them? In my discussions with committee members, it seems to be that in most cases head-to-head is going to be used most often if the teams wind up with "identical" resumes or if they would be ranked "right next to each other" on the list. Head-to-head is not one of the primary criteria used, so at that point it would really come down to how much better UIndy's profile may or may not appear to the committee than Wayne's. Hard to say at this point, but based on what Wayne endured last year in being left out I'm guessing they'll be insanely focused tomorrow and get the win. If they do that, any speculation about how they'll fare is likely moot as they should be in.

As for other GLIAC teams, we've already talked about UIndy a bit. Of course, they need to win. Beyond that, they're going to need some help. Based on what I can see, the winner of the UMD/MSU game will likely finish in the top six and claim at least one spot for the NSIC. If St. Cloud wins, their SOS is good enough that I don't see them falling out of the bracket. A loss, and who knows? UIndy's SOS will be quite strong and if there winds up being a large group of three-loss teams in contention their resume is going to be plenty comparable. Of the GLIAC teams in the discussion their SOS after Saturday will be second only to Saginaw's so they're hardly out of the mix...but again, they are going to need some help.

Like UIndy, Hillsdale is going to need a lot of help. Their SOS after taking on Tiffin's record will drop far enough that they will be near the bottom end of the teams in this discussion. If a slew of teams lose they might wind up in the conversation, but that would mean that a TON of things would have to happen, like Saginaw, Wayne, UIndy and St. Cloud all losing. Beyond that, the committee would then have to perceive that their resume is somehow strong enough to still rank them ahead of each of those teams...and I would not classify that as likely. I've been seeing where some folks have questioned whether Tiffin's zero-win record would really hurt Hillsdale's resume that much. The truth of the matter? It will. Everyone has to keep in mind that the committee does NOT include any cumulative forecasting when they do their analysis. Every week, they create their rankings/seedings "as if the season ended today". Hillsdale's SOS was actually the second best among the teams listed above heading into this weekend. After Saturday, it will be tied for eighth best among that same group. SO, like I said even if they win Saturday chances are they might need some other teams to stumble for them to get into the conversation.

Since I have received numerous questions about it, I'll address Grand Valley's chances as well. Simply put, I can pretty much only say "sorry, Laker fans". GV's SOS rating, even after picking up SV's strong record on Saturday will be inferior to everyone on the list above except for Mines...and frankly, by a decent amount. There would have to be a lot of unexpected losing going on Saturday and a perception in some areas that somehow the resume's of those three and four loss teams (which there aren't near enough of at the moment for this to even be a legit conversation) was surpassed by Grand Valley's. Don't get me wrong, SOS is not the only factor considered by the committee, but it's a bit one and GV is hampered by its three losses AND by it's SOS rating. Never say never, but if the chances were "slim" and "none" I would submit that "slim" caught a Southwest SuperSaver fare to Vegas and isn't even in town.

Well, that's how I see it. In short, from my vantage point Saginaw and Wayne control their own destiny in terms of GLIAC candidates. If either or both of them lose, all kinds of craziness could ensue. We'll know a lot more by Saturday evening, so good luck to all the GLIAC teams as we close out the regular season.