After all of the noise from earlier in the week about "who should be in or out", it's nice to now simply look at the games on the field. Congrats to Saginaw and Wayne for making the bracket...let's take a look at their games coming up this weekend.


#5 Saginaw Valley (7-3) at #4 Minnesota-Duluth (9-2)

The Cardinals will head for the western shores of Lake Superior to take on the defending National Champs. Minnesota-Duluth shared the Northern Sun title this year, but their two losses are the most in a season since their final NCC campaign in 2007.

The Bulldogs are led by junior quarterback Chase Vogler. Vogler has only lost three times in three years as a starter, including leading UMD all the way last year. While Vogler leads the Bulldog charge, the work is done far more with his legs than his arm. Vogler is one of four UMD ball carriers with at least 560 rushing yards on the season, and he is second on the team in carries with 130. When he's not lugging the mail himself, carries have been split between Zach Hulce, Austin Sikorski, and Brian Lucas. Various hot hands and injuries have led to different guys being the feature back in any given week, but the bottom line is that UMD is a power outfit that averages over 245 yards per game on the ground.

UMD's offense isn't all that flashy, but it's effective. The same could be said for their defense that only allows 16.9 points per game and led the NSIC in rushing, passing and total defense. Churning up yardage against the Bulldogs is not easy, and the Cardinals will have an interesting challenge facing them this week. I don't think they'll run into the exact same issues they did against Grand Valley as the Lakers have a good deal more speed than UMD, but the Bulldogs scheme really well...especially when it comes to disguising coverages and pressure. Further, they are a physical bunch and that style of play definitely took its toll on the Cardinals this past Saturday.

For Saginaw Valley to get a tough win on the road, they need to avoid turnovers. They were -3 at Grand Valley last week and that hurt them a great deal. While UMD isn't big on takeaways (only ten the entire year), they don't give the ball away on offense either (only ten total giveaways on the year) so the notion that SV's D will be able to force mistakes is far from a given. In addition to avoiding mistakes, they're going to have to do an excellent job of stopping the run. That has been a bit of an Achilles heel for the Red-Birds this year...for the season they allowed 160 yards a game. While that isn't horrible, that stat looks a bit scarier when you consider that they gave up more than 226 rushing yards per game in their three losses, including 254 and 317 to Hillsdale and Grand Valley respectively. Now, in SV's defense the passing games of the three teams that beat them are far more prolific than the one possessed by UMD. On the other hand, Chase Vogler completes more than 65% of his passes and has only been intercepted five times this year so the notion that UMD is going to look, say, like Northwood in the passing game is far from realistic. If UMD is able to run its ground-first, power offense in the manner to which its accustomed Saginaw will be at a disadvantage.

Prediction: I think this one looks pretty close, actually. While UMD's power game will definitely cause Saginaw some problems, the Cardinals do have some advantages when their offense is on the field...primarily in terms of multiple pass catching weapons. Cecich, Janis, Thrash and Gallina all provide varying blends of size and speed and should cause match-up problems for the UMD secondary. The key for Saginaw from there is going to be pass protection, and as I mentioned earlier UMD's pressure schemes tend to be really tough to detect. Add to that some key injuries on the Saginaw offense (RB's Ronnie Lark and Tim Hogue are not 100%) and I just have a hard time seeing Saginaw being able to dictate tempo to their liking. I think they keep it close, but in the end the power ground game for UMD is just too much. Minnesota-Duluth 27, Saginaw 23.



#6 Wayne State (8-3) at #3 St. Cloud State (9-2)

After tailing behind UMD for a few seasons, St. Cloud State finally earned a share of the Northern Sun crown this year...and this includes a decisive victory over Duluth three weeks ago. Much like Duluth, SCSU is an old NCC team that puts a lot more emphasis on power, defense, and solid execution than they do flash or speed.

Most playoff-caliber teams are led by solid quarterback play and the Huskies are no exception. Sophomore Philip Klaphake has engineered back-to-back playoff trips for SCSU, and was named an All-NSIC first-teamer this year. Like UMD, St. Cloud is a run-first outfit and Klaphake definitely gets a fair share of his production by running the ball. With that said, Klaphake is more than effective as a passer (194 yards per game) and he spreads the ball evenly among as many as five or even six receivers. On the ground most of the work runs through Michael Walker and Dante Steward, and GLIAC fans may recall Steward as the guy who almost single-handedly ran over Hillsdale in the first round of last year's playoffs. The problem for St. Cloud is that we keep hearing that Steward's availability for Saturday looks questionable so the Huskies may have to go with out one of their primary playmakers.

Defensively, SCSU is in the top half of the league in terms of yards allowed. More importantly, they were tops in the NSIC in scoring defense at 15.1 per game. When the Warriors get scoring chances, they had better cash in because the Husky defense is stingy and tends to employ a bit of a "bend, but don't break" style. Key Huskies to watch on defense are defensive backs Tony Kubes and Marvin Mathews. Both are first-team All-NSIC selections, and it'll be interesting to see which of them gets locked up trying to stop Troy Burrell on the outside.

While I don't normally put tons of stock in random stats, one that is worth watching in this one is penalties. St. Cloud was the second-most penalized team in the NSIC this year, while their opponents were the least penalized against them of any team in the league. While that isn't necessarily a massive strategic advantage, if both teams trends hold true there is roughly 25 or 30 yards of field position that could be gained if Wayne plays clean. Moreover, if SCSU gets nabbed for "cheating" an the wrong time whose to say if a drive or two doesn't get stalled by penalty? If SCSU continues being mistake-prone in this manner, it is a definite (albeit a small one) for the visitors.

Prediction:
I have to be honest, with how Wayne limped into the playoffs I have a hard time picking them over a very good St. Cloud group that has playoff experience and a solid, physical defense. With that said, Wayne tends to match-up better against teams that have a more deliberate, physical style. More importantly, there are a handful of key defensive players that Wayne is expecting to have available that haven't played much over the last couple of weeks. If those starters return, Wayne's defense will have a better chance of keeping them in the game. Further, for whatever reason Wayne seems to play better away from home in big games...I can't fathom why, but tough wins at Hillsdale and Indianapolis down the stretch helped get them into the bracket. Last, I have a feeling that Josh Renel and Toney Davis will have big days running the ball behind their solid O-line. It would probably have to be classified as an upset, but for some reason my gut likes Wayne here. Wayne 21, St. Cloud 14.


Best wishes for safe travels, good weather, and great football to the players, staffs and families of Saginaw Valley and Wayne State. Best of luck this weekend in representing the GLIAC.