Well, I got a little cute with things last week...and the drag of it is the game I really believed in the most I didn't pick. Something about Tiffin over Hillsdale last week just hit me between the eyes...and I chickened out. What'cha gonna do?

Let's take another swipe here and see what we have this week.

Tiffin vs Wayne State - The Dragons stunned Wayne last year, but I think they caught them when D.J. Zezula was still figuring things out. Wayne has the ability to be physical in a way that doesn't suit the Dragons particularly well, and Romello Brown is (almost quietly) averaging a buck-thirty a game on the ground. This one won't be easy as I think Tiffin is starting to pick up steam, but I like Wayne at home at The Jewel.

Findlay vs Lake Erie - While Findlay is far from a juggernaut, they have more than enough offensive weaponry to handle Lake Erie. The Storm has just been, well, not good through three games...yielding more than 320 yards per outing on the ground and registering only one total sack. Not stopping the run and not pressuring the passer are traits that make it pretty tough to beat people.

Grand Valley State vs Walsh - First roadie of the year for the Lakers, but not sure if that will mean much. Look at it this way, GV has averaged 31 points in the first half over the first three games. Walsh has scored 34 points total for the season. Ouch. Can't expect to stay in games (especially against better opponents) when you're not able to score. Got a hard time not seeing this one being over relatively early.

Ashland vs Ferris State - Game of the Week in the league to be sure, and will be on national TV on ASN. When you look at things in simplest terms, you see that Ferris is still moving the ball all over the place (465 yards per game). So why have they only eeked out wins the last couple of weeks despite dominating statistically? Simple: They're nearly ten full points less effective at converting third downs than they were the last couple of years, they have committed more penalties than anyone in the league (for the second most yardage), and they've only converted half of their red zone chances into TD's. So, they've had their chances to make their wins easier/more convincing, and they have just not been crisp enough to make that happen. In this one, they'll face the best defense they've seen all year and an offense that poses multiple match-up issues. If the 'Dawgs come out and play flawless, mistake-free football it wouldn't surprise me in the least. If they do, however, it will buck the most recent trend...and that trend being what it is favors Ashland.

Northwood vs Northern Michigan - Despite having lost two straight, I feel like Northern is better than some may realize. They're breaking in a lot skill guys, and are still adjusting to the new scheme installed by their new DC. All of that said, there are some athletes on that team and over time I like them to improve. Northern's chances are always better at home, so I like them to get back on the right side of things here.

Michigan Tech vs Hillsdale - I chickened out on picking against Hillsdale last week...and that was w/o knowing that Chance Stewart wasn't playing. Now, knowing that he is probably questionable, it's hard for me to see HC being consistent enough offensively to knock this one out. Of course, this is the exact type of spot in my years of watching this league that Hillsdale will reverse its fortunes of last week and come out and play a whale of a game and win. Sheesh...what do I do with this one? While I think this game lends itself to being close, Tech's defense is superior to Tiffin's and while I don't like the premise that Tech is making its second straight long roadie, I'm just worried about the HC offense potentially going with a redshirt freshman against a MUCH better D that he saw a week ago. I'm taking Tech, but can't say I feel strongly about it.

Ohio Dominican vs Saginaw Valley State - Despite the two-game winning streak, Saginaw still has a lot of issues. They somehow beat Northwood two weeks ago despite being out-gained two-to-one, and had to thwart a late Walsh drive last week to seal a win (and we talked earlier about how much the Cavs struggle on O). One could say that Matt McKoy is a bright-spot having scored TD's in each of the last two games, and one would be right. Except, that bright-spot starts to dull just a tad when you realize he's a Safety. Counting on your best defensive player to chip in on the scoring every week isn't a recipe for success. While I think ODU has definitely dropped off vs. the last couple of years, it would appear that the Cardinals are still very much a work in progress.



I put my picks in last night, and I'm still unsure about that Tech/Hillsdale game. Tech is solid...just not typically the same on the road (The Troll Effect seems to hit them, too). Will stick with it but can't figure that one out. That Ashland/Ferris game should be interesting too. Ferris has the firepower to win that game...but will their (comparatively) sloppy play continue? Wow, just noticed that I've got five road winners picked today...how will that shake out?

For those answer and more, follow everything here at the GLIAC Week 4 GameDay Home Page. Have a great Saturday, Gang!