Much like when I wrote the GLIAC Blog, I have always maintained that digging too deeply into potential playoff scenarios prior to Week 11 is simply not worth it. There are simply WAY too many variables involved, particularly when there are weeks worth of games still to be played. So, now that we're down to the final Saturday of the season, it is a BIT easier to try and take a stab or two:

1) - Grand Valley - 10-0
In my view, the Lakers are the only team that is 100% in the playoffs regardless of what they do this weekend. Frankly, if you look at their current SOS and the bump they'll get from playing Wayne, I think it is highly likely that GV has the one-line completely locked down. Their SOS is already higher than all four of the current one-loss-or-less teams, and none of the one-loss teams are playing a club with seven wins or more (Wayne currently sits at 7-3). The Lakers' #'s increase this weekend over the other suitors of the #1 seed, so I'd say they have a pretty decent stranglehold on that top spot. Of course, finishing unbeaten and possibly having some advantages later in the bracket (a solid month away) are worth of note, but not worthy of consideration...way too much football still to be played. In the end, I think GV is your #1 seed whether they win or lose on Saturday.


2) - Midwestern State - 8-1
3 - Southwest Baptist - 9-1
4 - Texas A & M Commerce - 9-1

For these three teams, it's "win and you're in". While you might see a bit of shuffling based on SOS #'s (SBU gets a one-win Lincoln on Saturday, for example...their # will take a hit), I don't see the final #'s of any of these three clubs being so far distressed that they don't get in with a single loss. To be honest, I doubt if any of them would fall beneath any of the two-loss candidates. Again, pretty straightforward...win and it's a no-brainer. If any were to lose, they'd likely join a log-jam of two-loss teams and THEN their SOS becomes a big deal...pretty much all bets are off at that point.

5 - Truman State - 8-2
6 - Ferris State - 8-2
7 - Colorado Mesa - 8-2

I'm halfway comfy with a similar, "win and you're in" scenario here also. Truman gets a seven win club (McKendree), Ferris a five (SV), and Mesa a niner (Azusa). TSU's and Mesa's SOS #'s will be bolstered, so it's hard to see them sliding in any logical instance should they win. Ferris's #'s will probably not move much. Now, if the logjam of two-loss teams grows, then there is room for a shuffle but any of these teams may stand to slide up in the rankings if any of the 1-loss outfits above them get beat Saturday. As for their chances with a third loss, there would have to be MULTIPLE teams that lose in order to facilitate a three-loss team making the bracket. It seems unlikely, but I've seen crazier things happen on the last Saturday of a season before. Again, if any of these three win, I think they're in pretty safely. A loss is almost certainly a deal-breaker unless there are a ton of other losses on Saturday.


8 - Colorado Mines - 8-2
9 - Ashland - 8-2
10 - CSU-Pueblo - 7-3

As I'm sure you can guess, these guys need some help. I've seen it happen where a team enters week 11 outside of the bracket, and wins their way in by beating a team with a really good record and finishing with a better SOS # and resume than a team that had been above them. I'm just not sure if I see that happening here. Mines does play a six-win (BHS) team, but that won't get them over Mesa who is playing a nine-win club as mentioned earlier. Ashland does close out on the road at a seven-win ODU, but their # is far enough down that the bump they get simply won't be enough to get them past any of the two-loss teams ahead of them...and certainly not several of them. Pueblo's three losses pretty well cut them out unless a bunch of teams lose and a three-loss team HAS to get in. Even if that were to happen, I think that the "right" teams would have to lose for Pueblo to climb to the top of that heap. All these clubs can do is go out and win on Saturday, and hope that a whole lot of craziness happens above them.


That's what I know, Gang. To be honest, this actually is relatively straight-forward at this point...particularly since the Week 10 rankings were so "chalk". I mean, if you look at the #'s, this really went pretty well according to Hoyle. No guarantee we see that this week, but given that's the stage that was set by the committee at this point I'm inclined to think the #'s will align pretty simply once everyone finishes play on Saturday.

Best of luck to all of you and whomever you're rooting for this Saturday.