West regional predictions for rankings

[BillyBronco]

1. Western Oregon. Will host if wheels don't fall off. Great season.
2. Cal Poly Pomona- how coach Kamansky keeps doing it with a limited budget, I'll never know.
3. Dixie St. Pac west leaders have a great home court advantage.
4. Cal Baptist. Dangerous team, can score and wreak with talent.
5. Western Washington- another team that has tradition and can fill it.
6. Chico St. - the defending champions are peaking at the right time. Watch out for them. Wouldn't want to draw them day 1.
7. Cal st San marcos.- have stretch bigs that have unlimited range. A disaster of a weekend saw them get swept at home. Still have work to do.
8. Azusa Pacific.-i chose them based on the eyeball test over Pt.loma. Both teams will have to win some in post season tourney to ensure a berth.

Outside looking in: UCSD, pt Loma, and st. Martin's. Three solid teams. I admit I haven't seen St. Martin's play all year. Would like to hear from gnac people about them. Pt Loma is a tough out as well. There will be at least 3 teams that could justify playoffs that will be left out. Also an upstart team like cal state Stanislaus could totally throw the region into chaos. Should be a fun last three weeks. You guys let me know what you think!

[BillyBronco]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

After looking at the whole body of work, I noticed Chico st only has one quality win. Here are my revised rankings based on what the committee will do.

1. Western Oregon
2. Cal poly Pomona
3. Dixie St.
4. Cal Baptist
5. Western Washington
6. Cal State San Marcos
7. Asusa Pacific
8. UCSD
9. Chico St.
10. pt. Loma
11. St Martin's.

Long way to go, big week coming up, especially in CCAA.

[northernGNAChoopfan]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

Boy... It's hard to say right now. I don't think anyone can argue WOU isn't the number one team in the region or won't host, barring a disaster, but beyond that, it's pretty fuzzy with a lotta teams sporting good records, good wins and good losses. There look to be a handful of really good games still that might clarify things a bit, or muddy them further-who knows. The only thing I disagree with you about is Western Washington at 5. I think they are outside of the top 8 looking in right now. Very poor non-con season, lots of home floor losses and only one quality win. I think region-wide, Saint Martins is the 2nd rep from the GNAC right now with WWU and SPU hovering somewhere between 9-12??? Really hard to breakdown the differences between Dixie, PLNU, and APU without making some kind of complicated chart though (I look to Schnautza's complicated chart to do that homework for me-they are often very close to how things shake down at the end). I'm sure the CCAA is like that with the top teams after CPP too.

[SGAstumpJ]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

Really hard to breakdown the differences between Dixie, PLNU, and APU without making some kind of complicated chart though (I look to Schnautza's complicated chart to do that homework for me-they are often very close to how things shake down at the end).

Being a PacWest guy (and an APU guy in particular) I can try to help you with that. Here's what each team who would currently make the conference tournament has done in terms of OOC play and against the potential field:

Dixie State (17-6, 14-2)
Non-conference: Win vs. UCSD (neutral site), Losses: at Pomona, at Western Oregon, at Seattle Pacific, at CSU-Los Angeles
PacWest: Wins: APU (home), CBU (home), Concordia (road), Chaminade (road); Losses: at CBU, Point Loma (home)
Still to play: at Point Loma

Cal Baptist (19-4, 12-3)
Non-conference: Win: UCSD (home); Loss: St. Martin's (home) -- in fact, CBU did not play a single non-conference game away from home.
PacWest: Wins: Dixie (home), APU (twice), Point Loma (twice), Concordia (home); Losses: at Dixie, at Concordia, at Chaminade
Still to play: Chaminade (home)

Azusa Pacific (17-8, 13-4)
Non-conference: Wins: at Pomona, UCSD (neutral site); Losses: at Western Oregon, at CSU-San Marcos
PacWest: Wins: Point Loma (twice), Concordia (twice), Chaminade (home); Losses: at Dixie, CBU (twice), at Biola
Still to play: at Chaminade

Point Loma (19-7, 13-4)
Non-conference: Win: St. Martin's (neutral site); Losses: at Western Oregon, UCSD (home)
PacWest: Wins: at Dixie, Concordia (twice), at Chaminade; Losses: CBU (twice), APU (twice)
Still to play: Dixie (home)

Concordia-Irvine (16-9, 10-7) -- longshot at best, but likely to be in the PacWest tournament
Non-conference: Wins: Chico (neutral site), at CSU-San Marcos; Loss: at Seattle Pacific
PacWest: Wins: CBU (home), Chaminade (twice); Losses: Dixie (home), at CBU, APU (twice), Concordia (twice)
Still to play: no one in contention

Chaminade (14-9, 9-7) -- they're not in contention for an at-large berth, but they would be in the conference tournament as of now, so could potentially steal an autobid
Non-conference: Wins: at Anchorage, UC-Berkeley (doesn't count, but still); Losses: 2 D1 schools in Maui
PacWest: Win: Cal Baptist (home); Losses: Dixie (home), at APU, Point Loma (home), Concordia (twice)
Still to play: at CBU, APU (home)

[BillyBronco]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

You are probably right about Western Washington not being a 5, but the committee has shown in the past that they reward top victories as they beat Western Oregon by 30. The gnac looks to be a 2 bid league currently. As far as the PAC west goes, I see cal Baptist eventually getting a higher seed than Pomona or Dixie St. I hate to see teams rewarded for not playing road games for non conference, however. We will get a good feel tomorrow at noon when the committee releases it's first rankings. Good to able to discuss west coast bball with everyone! If u have any questions on the ccaa let me know.

[northernGNAChoopfan]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

You are probably right about Western Washington not being a 5, but the committee has shown in the past that they reward top victories as they beat Western Oregon by 30. The gnac looks to be a 2 bid league currently. As far as the PAC west goes, I see cal Baptist eventually getting a higher seed than Pomona or Dixie St. I hate to see teams rewarded for not playing road games for non conference, however. We will get a good feel tomorrow at noon when the committee releases it's first rankings. Good to able to discuss west coast bball with everyone! If u have any questions on the ccaa let me know.

Hey Billy! Yeah, give us the scoop in the CCAA. It's hard enough to follow the finer points of one league. We used to have a CCAA guy on here, but he abandoned us this year, although I suspect he's still lurking maybe.

Being a PacWest guy (and an APU guy in particular) I can try to help you with that. Here's what each team who would currently make the conference tournament has done in terms of OOC play and against the potential field:

Dixie State (17-6, 14-2)
Non-conference: Win vs. UCSD (neutral site), Losses: at Pomona, at Western Oregon, at Seattle Pacific, at CSU-Los Angeles
PacWest: Wins: APU (home), CBU (home), Concordia (road), Chaminade (road); Losses: at CBU, Point Loma (home)
Still to play: at Point Loma

Cal Baptist (19-4, 12-3)
Non-conference: Win: UCSD (home); Loss: St. Martin's (home) -- in fact, CBU did not play a single non-conference game away from home.
PacWest: Wins: Dixie (home), APU (twice), Point Loma (twice), Concordia (home); Losses: at Dixie, at Concordia, at Chaminade
Still to play: Chaminade (home)

Azusa Pacific (17-8, 13-4)
Non-conference: Wins: at Pomona, UCSD (neutral site); Losses: at Western Oregon, at CSU-San Marcos
PacWest: Wins: Point Loma (twice), Concordia (twice), Chaminade (home); Losses: at Dixie, CBU (twice), at Biola
Still to play: at Chaminade

Point Loma (19-7, 13-4)
Non-conference: Win: St. Martin's (neutral site); Losses: at Western Oregon, UCSD (home)
PacWest: Wins: at Dixie, Concordia (twice), at Chaminade; Losses: CBU (twice), APU (twice)
Still to play: Dixie (home)

Concordia-Irvine (16-9, 10-7) -- longshot at best, but likely to be in the PacWest tournament
Non-conference: Wins: Chico (neutral site), at CSU-San Marcos; Loss: at Seattle Pacific
PacWest: Wins: CBU (home), Chaminade (twice); Losses: Dixie (home), at CBU, APU (twice), Concordia (twice)
Still to play: no one in contention

Chaminade (14-9, 9-7) -- they're not in contention for an at-large berth, but they would be in the conference tournament as of now, so could potentially steal an autobid
Non-conference: Wins: at Anchorage, UC-Berkeley (doesn't count, but still); Losses: 2 D1 schools in Maui
PacWest: Win: Cal Baptist (home); Losses: Dixie (home), at APU, Point Loma (home), Concordia (twice)
Still to play: at CBU, APU (home)

So impressed with the summary Stump-love the color-coding. Can you summarize what it all means though. My head still spins reading it. Schnautza's charts say it's CBU, PLNU, Dixie, then APU. But I'm with you guys that I'm always mildly annoyed that CBU just camps at home in Nov and Dec. It won't help them come time to go to Monmouth though.

[SGAstumpJ]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

So impressed with the summary Stump-love the color-coding. Can you summarize what it all means though. My head still spins reading it. Schnautza's charts say it's CBU, PLNU, Dixie, then APU. But I'm with you guys that I'm always mildly annoyed that CBU just camps at home in Nov and Dec. It won't help them come time to go to Monmouth though.

The charts Schnautza's giving you have crunched the numbers for the performance indicator. The order I've listed the teams in is simply the current conference standings. I imagine his will be closer to how they show up in the regional rankings tomorrow.

[SGAstumpJ]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

The charts Schnautza's giving you have crunched the numbers for the performance indicator. The order I've listed the teams in is simply the current conference standings. I imagine his will be closer to how they show up in the regional rankings tomorrow.

And indeed his are closer:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d2

[BillyBronco]

Re: West regional predictions for rankings

Just read the rankings. Here is my analysis
1. Western Oregon-a no brainer
2. Cal Baptist- talent wise the second best team but the committee makes a statement, not valuing league standings as much as outside conference wins
3. Cal POLY- thought they would be 2 but props to coach Kamansky getting the most out of this group
4. Dixie St- thought just based on league standings they would be ahead of cal Baptist
5. UCSD- kinda shocked they were this high but like I say the committee puts value on road victories
6. Pt loma- see above comment. Hard to understand how they are ahead of Azusa Pacific when they got swept by them.
7. St Martin's- again behind by two games of Western Washington but committee values non conference
8. San marcos- had a costly week before but can move up with a victory over Chico
9. Azusa Pacific- they might have a beef with pt Loma. Will have to win some conference tourney games
10. Concordia- I'm just floored by this ranking. They by far have the weakest resume of the contending teams. Hard to understand their inclusion. I'm sure the committee has a computer formula they ate following, but this seems like a reach.
11. Chico st.- I would have put them at 9 but that's cause I'm watched them. Huge weekend with San Marcos and UCSD. Their last gasp.
12. Western Washington- getting hammered by weak non conference schedule. Will probably have to win conference tourney.
13. Cal State Stanislaus- would probably be ranked 10 if not for a terrible loss last weekend vs Humboldt st. Was the hottest team in the conference. Will have to win conference tourney.