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Three Weeks to Go...

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  • Three Weeks to Go...

    Here's how the conference tournaments would look if the season ended today:

    CCAA (first round at higher seed, semis and final at UCSD)

    #8 Cal State-Los Angeles (11-11, 6-10) at #1 UC San Diego (22-1, 16-1)
    #7 Cal State-San Marcos (11-12, 7-10) at #2 Cal State-San Bernardino (19-4, 14-3)
    #6 Stanislaus State (13-10, 9-9) at #3 Cal Poly Pomona (17-5, 13-4)
    #5 Cal State-East Bay (13-10, 9-8) at #4 Chico State (17-5, 12-4)

    still in contention: #9 Cal State-Dominguez Hills (10-12, 6-10), #10 Cal State-Monterey Bay (9-14, 6-11)

    Key games this week: Thursday: Chico State at Cal Poly Pomona, Cal State-LA at Cal State-San Marcos; Saturday: Chico State at Cal State-San Bernardino, Cal State-Dominguez Hills at Cal State-San Marcos

    GNAC (at Seattle Pacific)

    BYES: #1 Seattle Pacific (17-5, 13-1), #2 Western Washington (14-8, 9-5)

    #6 Central Washington (14-8, 7-7) vs. #3 Northwest Nazarene (12-7, 9-5)
    #5 Western Oregon (14-6, 8-6) vs. #4 Alaska-Fairbanks (10-12, 9-5)

    still in contention: #7 Alaska-Anchorage (14-11, 7-7), #8 Simon Fraser (13-10, 6-8)

    Key games this week: Thursday: Northwest Nazarene at Alaska-Anchorage, Central Washington at Alaska-Fairbanks, Western Washington at Western Oregon; Saturday: Northwest Nazarene at Alaska-Fairbanks, Central Washington at Alaska-Anchorage, Simon Fraser at Western Oregon

    PacWest (at Azusa Pacific)

    BYES: #1 Azusa Pacific (18-3, 13-2), #2 Point Loma (17-4, 13-2)

    #6 Hawai'i Pacific (9-12, 7-8) vs. #3 Concordia (CA) (17-7, 11-4)
    #5 Biola (13-10, 9-8) vs. #4 Chaminade (13-8, 11-5)

    still in contention: #7 Hawai'i Hilo (9-11, 7-9), #8 Holy Names (8-14, 6-10), #9 Academy of Art (8-15, 6-10), #10 Fresno Pacific (8-15, 6-11)

    Key games this week: Just follow Chaminade as they continue their southern CA road trip at Point Loma (Monday), Biola (Thursday) and Concordia (Saturday)

  • #2
    So... On a technicality Stump, I'm going to argue with you just a little. I think at this very moment in time, NNU would get the GNAC's second first round bye because they've beat UAF (will play second game this weekend)... UAF would probably be in the 3rd spot, because they own the tie-breaker over WWU right now with a season split, because UAF is the only team to beat anyone with a record over 0.750... If UAF can split with NNU by winning this weekend, they would then be in position, for the moment to own that tiebreaker too. So, it's neither here nor there who's got the first round bye with SPU right now, but for sure, it wouldn't be WWU.

    Which leads me to another point. Who the hell would have thought UAF would be in this position at any time before December? Nobody, probably.

    Looking at remaining schedules for NNU, WWU, UAF, WOU, CWU, UAA, & SFU now... Will post that next. Probably takes too long to type it out now in one post.

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    • #3
      That's fair. I didn't know who owned the tiebreakers in the GNAC, so I listed them in the order they were listed in the standings on the conference website, which I guess just placed them by overall record without regard to head-to-head. It should work itself out soon enough.

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      • #4
        So for the GNAC, here's what's left for WWU, NNU, UAA, UAF, WOU, SFU, & CWU (I'm leaving SPU out, because them not getting a first round bye seems unlikely at this point and leaving MSUB out because them winning a whole bunch at this point seems equally unlikely). Most of these teams have not been very consistent, so I would think that none of them have a great chance of winning 3 days in a row in the GNAC tourney; a first round bye is up for grabs and whomever gets it will have a distinct advantage in the tournament. Looks like NNU, SFU, and CWU have the toughest remaining schedules. Hopefully we'll get some awesome games this week!

        WWU: Seems moderately difficult; on the one hand they have SPU & WOU, and on the other they have the bottom 3 GNAC teams too...
        @ WOU Lost (89-72), still tied for 2nd
        @ CU Win, still tied for 2nd
        vs SMU Win, still tied for 2nd
        vs SPU Win, Vikings remain tied for 2nd with NNU (whom they split their season series with, so they have the tiebreaker on NNU now, should they remain tied
        vs SFU
        @ MSUB

        NNU: Difficult. They've got Alaska this week and finish on the road with SPU as well. Their remaining home games include WOU too. They've got a real steep hill for snagging a first round bye (if they do it, they certainly earn it)...
        @ UAA Lost (90-89 OT), still tied for 2nd
        @ UAF Throttles the Nooks, still tied for 2nd in league
        vs CU By the skin of their toenails, they get a win to stay in a tie for 2nd
        vs WOU Win in OT. Right now WWU has the tiebreaker on them for the first round bye in the tourney, but they'll get a chance at SPU next to tie up that too...
        @ SPU
        @ SMU

        UAA: Not the most difficult schedule remaining, that's for sure. Although UAF is ahead of UAA in the standings, UAF has the most difficult of times getting wins against UAA. That said, it sounds like the team is down right now, so they'll need to not let too many of these slip away to stay in contention for the tourney.
        vs NNU Won (90-89 OT), tied for 6th with CWU
        vs CWU Win 68-66 in OT, tied for 5th with UAF, playing UAF on Tues.
        @ UAF Win and move up to 5th
        vs MSUB Win - tied for 4th with WOU
        @ WOU
        @ CU

        UAF: Nice slate of home games. UAF is in good position with a gentler schedule to the finish, but as much as they are capable of pulling big wins, they have also shown they can be beat by anyone too.
        vs CWU Lost (66-63), still tied for 2nd
        vs NNU Crushed by the Nighthawks and on the edge of complete collapse, tied for 5th now and welcoming the Seawolves on Tuesday...
        vs UAA Loss, dropped to 6th
        vs MSUB Win, staying in 6th
        @ CU
        @ WOU

        SFU: Tough schedule being on the road for 4/6 of those and still needing to play WOU, SPU, and WWU...
        @ CU Won (79-56) 8th place
        @ WOU loss (76-64) 8th place in league
        vs SPU Loss, remaining in 8th place
        vs SMU Win, but they are out of playoff contention officially now...
        @ WWU
        @ MSUB

        WOU: Moderately difficult. They are at home mostly from here on out, but they are not hosting the bottom of the conference either.
        vs WWU Won (89-72), moved up to tie for 2nd with WWU, UAF, & NNU
        vs SFU Win 76-64, remain tied for 2nd
        @ CWU Win, stay in 2nd
        @ NNU Loss in OT @ NNU... Tied for 4th in GNAC
        vs UAA
        vs UAF

        CWU: Difficult remaining schedule of being on the road and playing teams ahead of them.
        @ UAF Won (66-63), tied with UAA for 6th
        @ UAA Lost a nail biter in OT to UAA, 7th place
        vs WOU Loss, staying in 7th place
        vs CU ​​​​​​​Win, but at this point they'll need UAF to lose both games this week and they'll need to win both in order to get in...
        @ SMU
        @ SPU
        Last edited by northernGNAChoopfan; 02-23-2020, 11:23 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Welp, we've got WOU @ NNU on Saturday and WWU @ SPU too. That should break up some of the logjam for 2nd place, at least for a few days... I should add that WWU has split it's series with NNU & WOU for the season, but NNU managed to beat WOU @ WOU earlier this season, so WOU will need to beat NNU tomorrow night to earn a split with these other two team as well.
          Last edited by northernGNAChoopfan; 02-21-2020, 10:36 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            With last night's games we've got SPU with 1st place and first round bye in the tourney, and at this time, WWU has 2nd place with the bye due to their tiebreaker over NNU with a win over SPU (NNU will get their chance to try to beat SPU on Thursday and lock things up again...). NNU's got 3rd place right now. WOU and UAA are tied for 4th place and will play on Thursday to decide their season series against each other. Meanwhile, SFU is officially out and CWU would need to beat both SPU and SMU while relying on UAF to lose to Concordia and WOU to get in. I will say that the Nooks game in Concordia is really key and not to be overlooked. Concordia lost to NNU this week by 1 point and CWU by 3. It took overtime for the Nooks to get past them in December, so it's really key that they not think about Saturday and overlook Concordia - dangerous game! It'll be super fun to see NNA play SPU and WOU play UAA on Thursday this week!

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