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Getting that time of year. The GNAC tourney is in Bellingham this year. UAA and MSUB sit tied for 5th at 8-8, the last two spots. WWU now sits in a tie for 7th at 6-9 with SFU, 1.5 games back of UAA and MSUB. WWU and SFU have the same remaining schedule - a game against each other at SFU, WOU and Concordia at home, and the Alaska teams on the road.
Of the teams tied for 5th, UAA has the major advantage of 4 home games against teams with a equal or worse record. However, these games are against MSUB, WWU and SFU, who are going to be fighting for a tourney spot, and UAF which is a rivalry game. Would hope UAA wins out but I give that about a 30% chance. MSUB has 4 road games (St. Martins, SPU, the Alaska schools). Since MSUB is currently 1-8 on the road or neutral courts, anything better than 2-2 would be exceptional.
A 5-0 finish puts SFU or WWU at 11-9 with a win over UAA (but UAA already has beat both on the road, so that would not be a tiebreaker, if UAA finishes 3-1). If UAA finishes 2-2, then 4-1 would get either team a tie. However, SFU has beat SMU and NNU, and WWU has beaten SMU. These would put them over UAA in a tiebreaker (assuming the standings of top 3 remain as they are today). UAA has a win over NNU only. If MSUB finishes 2-2, either SFU or WWU need to finish 4-1 to tie them. UAA would need to finish 2-2 to tie. If MSUB beats UAA it has the tie break, or if it beats either SPU or St. Martins, it would also have the tie break.
I think the most likely scenario at this point is that UAA ends up the 5 seed and MSUB has a slight edge over SFU or WWU to get the 6 seed. MSUB just has not traveled well this year. Though Durham may get them ready, they just haven't proved they can do it yet. They have to win a couple at St. Martins, SPU, UAA or UAF. All of these games promise to be tough (UAF will be up for Durham when he returns to town). We will see if they can do 2-2 to give themselves a real chance. The tie breaks are too numerous to explain if MSUB goes 2-2 and either SFU or WWU goes 4-1, or if MSUB goes 1-3 and SFU or WWU go 3-2. That will get clearer in a week.
BTW UAA could get the 4 seed over WOU if UAA wins two or more games than WOU (i.e. wins out and WOU finishes 2-2) and, if tied, WOU does not beat NNU at home (beating NNU would give WOU the tie break, assuming SPU finishes 3-1 or better, if not the tie break really gets into the weeds). But at this point the most likely matchup would be WOU and UAA as 4 and 5 seed regardless which one is 4 and which is 5. In that scenario, if WWU gets the 6 seed, at least WOU or UAA won't play them until the final if they make it that far.
Bottom line, I think WWU has an opportunity to make the GNAC tourney in its own gym, but it is probably 25% chance or less.
Do you follow me? If not,, don't worry, this can all change in a game or two.
Of the teams tied for 5th, UAA has the major advantage of 4 home games against teams with a equal or worse record. However, these games are against MSUB, WWU and SFU, who are going to be fighting for a tourney spot, and UAF which is a rivalry game. Would hope UAA wins out but I give that about a 30% chance. MSUB has 4 road games (St. Martins, SPU, the Alaska schools). Since MSUB is currently 1-8 on the road or neutral courts, anything better than 2-2 would be exceptional.
A 5-0 finish puts SFU or WWU at 11-9 with a win over UAA (but UAA already has beat both on the road, so that would not be a tiebreaker, if UAA finishes 3-1). If UAA finishes 2-2, then 4-1 would get either team a tie. However, SFU has beat SMU and NNU, and WWU has beaten SMU. These would put them over UAA in a tiebreaker (assuming the standings of top 3 remain as they are today). UAA has a win over NNU only. If MSUB finishes 2-2, either SFU or WWU need to finish 4-1 to tie them. UAA would need to finish 2-2 to tie. If MSUB beats UAA it has the tie break, or if it beats either SPU or St. Martins, it would also have the tie break.
I think the most likely scenario at this point is that UAA ends up the 5 seed and MSUB has a slight edge over SFU or WWU to get the 6 seed. MSUB just has not traveled well this year. Though Durham may get them ready, they just haven't proved they can do it yet. They have to win a couple at St. Martins, SPU, UAA or UAF. All of these games promise to be tough (UAF will be up for Durham when he returns to town). We will see if they can do 2-2 to give themselves a real chance. The tie breaks are too numerous to explain if MSUB goes 2-2 and either SFU or WWU goes 4-1, or if MSUB goes 1-3 and SFU or WWU go 3-2. That will get clearer in a week.
BTW UAA could get the 4 seed over WOU if UAA wins two or more games than WOU (i.e. wins out and WOU finishes 2-2) and, if tied, WOU does not beat NNU at home (beating NNU would give WOU the tie break, assuming SPU finishes 3-1 or better, if not the tie break really gets into the weeds). But at this point the most likely matchup would be WOU and UAA as 4 and 5 seed regardless which one is 4 and which is 5. In that scenario, if WWU gets the 6 seed, at least WOU or UAA won't play them until the final if they make it that far.
Bottom line, I think WWU has an opportunity to make the GNAC tourney in its own gym, but it is probably 25% chance or less.
Do you follow me? If not,, don't worry, this can all change in a game or two.
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