1st Regional Poll Predicitons

[CCAA_Fanatic]

The first committee poll comes out on Wednesday this week. What are your predictions?

Here is mine:

1. Cal Baptist
2. UC San Diego
3. SF State
4. Western Washington
5. Hawaii Pacific
6. Sonoma State
7. Chico State
8. Anchorage
9. Dixie State
10. San Marcos (do they rank ineligible teams?)

[Rob_AK]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

I think they are chicken$hit and will vote right down the PI. If they exercise any discretion then I think you have WWU and UAA in the wrong order, as at present I think UAA is a better team (do I sound biased?). They both have 5 losses and are 11-3 in conference, but UAA has now won 8 straight, including what seemed like a relatively easy 7 point win over WWU in Anchorage. They both have similar schedules to finish out the season. There is almost no difference between their body of work, except WWU has one more D2 win. So I give the slightest edge in this poll to WWU I guess to be fair. I definitely don't think they are 4 spots apart.

Here is how I would rank them:

1. CBU
2. SF State
3. HPU
4. UCSD
5. WWU
6. UAA
7. Sonoma State
8. Chico
9. Dixie State
10. Chaminade

But at this point, it is a race between the top 9 for 8 spaces, but still a lot of ball to play so Chaminade or Concordia might edge up. WOU is probably in 12th now and may not have much of a road to the tourney except by winning the GNAC tourney, unless some others stumble to the finish.

[tsull]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

I think they are chicken$hit and will vote right down the PI. If they exercise any discretion then I think you have WWU and UAA in the wrong order, as at present I think UAA is a better team (do I sound biased?). They both have 5 losses and are 11-3 in conference, but UAA has now won 8 straight, including what seemed like a relatively easy 7 point win over WWU in Anchorage. They both have similar schedules to finish out the season. There is almost no difference between their body of work, except WWU has one more D2 win. So I give the slightest edge in this poll to WWU I guess to be fair. I definitely don't think they are 4 spots apart.

Here is how I would rank them:

1. CBU
2. SF State
3. HPU
4. UCSD
5. WWU
6. UAA
7. Sonoma State
8. Chico
9. Dixie State
10. Chaminade

But at this point, it is a race between the top 9 for 8 spaces, but still a lot of ball to play so Chaminade or Concordia might edge up. WOU is probably in 12th now and may not have much of a road to the tourney except by winning the GNAC tourney, unless some others stumble to the finish.

At the end of the day, I have UAA ahead of WWU, winning the regular season and conference tournaments, maybe even leap-frogging UCSD. I hope things play out evenly this year. Didn't UAF get jumped by SPU to go to regionals last year when UAF finished a very close 2nd to WOU in the regional title game?

* If WOU doesn't bring it's "A" game this week, they drop two to an excellent UAA team and a UAF team that was good enough to beat WWU this year. If they bring their "F" game like they did vs. Simon Fraser, it's a long week. Bad shooters take a seat if you're not hitting, sorry.

[CCAA_Fanatic]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

I think they are chicken$hit and will vote right down the PI. If they exercise any discretion then I think you have WWU and UAA in the wrong order, as at present I think UAA is a better team (do I sound biased?). They both have 5 losses and are 11-3 in conference, but UAA has now won 8 straight, including what seemed like a relatively easy 7 point win over WWU in Anchorage. They both have similar schedules to finish out the season. There is almost no difference between their body of work, except WWU has one more D2 win. So I give the slightest edge in this poll to WWU I guess to be fair. I definitely don't think they are 4 spots apart.

At the risk of getting skewered by the GNAC faithful...
WWU is 3-1 against "top 8" teams: Sonoma (W), UCSD (W), Anchorage (W), Anchorage (L).
Anchorage is 1-2 against "top 8": HPU (L), WWU (L), WWU (W)

On top of that, WWU has two losses to "top 8" teams from another region. With similar records overall, I think it would be pretty fair to put them above Anchorage. Can't base who makes the national tournament on feel.

That being said, I hope it doesn't end up how I have it because the CCAA schools would all be playing each other in the first round!

[Rob_AK]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

tsull, hope you didn't just jinx them.

WOU will face two teams that probably need the win more than it does this week. UAA to be in the at large conversation and UAF to be in the GNAC tourney. WOU on the other hand is not a lock for the GNAC tourney but they are two games ahead of 4th place. It is an odd characteristic of the tiebreakers that the loss to SFU actually hurts WOU less than a loss to UAA would, as the record of teams above .500 are a consideration not teams below .500 given the same record. So right now, UAA's loss to NNU (above .500) hurts gives the edge to WWU who lost to UAF (below .500). Why a team that avoids a worse loss than another gets penalized I am not sure. But I digress.

With the defense played by UAA and UAF as well as MSUB at Anchorage, I have seen some very good defense as of late. WOU is no slouch in that regard either. I expect these games to be in the 70s. Whoever can handle the other's defense the best and make shots wins (duh). We will see.

Really looking forward to the CWU-WWU game on Root Sports. CWU has to be really thirsty for a win right now.

CCAAFanatic, I look more to losses than wins. UAA and WWU have both lost 3 GNAC games, while WWU also lost to 2 very good non-conf. teams on a neutral court; while UAA lost to HPU and Chaminade in Hawaii at the very beginning of the year. All the UCSD and Sonoma wins indicate to me is that the top of the CCAA is not that strong this year.:wink:

[northernGNAChoopfan]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

Chicken poop and skewers aside, here's my guess:

1) CBU
2) UCSD
3) HPU
4) SFSU
5) WWU
6) Chico
7) Sonoma
8) UAA

* The GNAC tiebreaker rewards teams for wins over teams above 0.750 first, then if the tie isn't broken, it rewards teams for wins over 0.500... It would seem pretty bassackwards to break a tie based on who's taken worst losses, wouldn't it? I think focusing on the wins is the better way to go~reward teams for wins over the big dogs. But the tiebreaker is not a done deal yet Rob. NNU is 8-8 in league right now. They finish out with a more confident SFU and WWU @ home this week then wrap it up in Alaska next week. They are 2-6 on the road in the GNAC, so they have a task in staying above 0.500 to finish. UAF also has a task to get above 0.500, but the season isn't over yet, so those tiebreaking games could very well change...

* Anchorage has been dynamite at home this year, but in the entire season they have only one road sweep in Seattle with SMU and SPU. On paper, SPU and SMU are not huge wins to procure on the road for a team wanting an at large bid to the NCAA tourney. I think wins this week and a strong showing at the GNAC tourney would go a long ways in giving them a little breathing room to get into the tourney, the big one, that is, but they gotta watch out for the likes of the stinkin wannabe Humboldts out there as of yet.

*CCAA_Fanatic, you ran us through this drill of putting up our guesses like 3 weeks in advanced of the real poll last year... You pump faked us all many times-you got your dates right this year?

Okay. I'm getting skewered, I know it. I'm ready with my armor on.

[CCAA_Fanatic]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

*CCAA_Fanatic, you ran us through this drill of putting up our guesses like 3 weeks in advanced of the real poll last year... You pump faked us all many times-you got your dates right this year?

LOL! You remember that, huh?? I'm pretty sure I'm right this time.

[CCAA_Fanatic]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

Official Committee Ranking:

1. Cal Baptist
2. UC San Diego
3. SF State
4. Western Washington
5. Chico State
6. Sonoma State
7. Hawaii Pacific
8. Dixie State
9. Alaska Anchorage
10. Chaminade

http://campus.mst.edu/athleticsarchi...l/regional.htm

[Rob_AK]

Re: 1st Regional Poll Predicitons

Theoretically, west region voters in the polls should be able to take into account a team's body of work like D1, but they are not allowed to do that by the rules. It is what it is.

As for the tiebreakers, I would rather award consistency. If you play well every week, you should be able to avoid bad losses. Let's say WOU and UAF finish with the same records, split the regular season and have the same record in conference against .750 teams. If UAF has two losses against plus .500 teams and WOU has one, but also got beat by SFU, then I think that UAF should get the tiebreaker. However, WOU gets the tiebreaker. Just my opinion, but I think it is backwards as applied.

BTW here are the rankings:

1.	California Baptist (21-2)
2.	UC San Diego (19-5)
3.	San Francisco State (19-3)
4.	Western Washington (18-5)
5.	Chico State (16-6)
6.	Sonoma State (17-5)
7.	Hawai'i Pacific (17-2)
8.	Dixie State (16-6)
9.	Alaska Anchorage (15-5)
10.	Chaminade (15-6) Feel like I should "rank" on them, lol. Oops CCAA beat me to it.