Is the gap closing between D1 FCS Football and D2 Football?

[Tony Nicolette]

Re: Is the gap closing between D1 FCS Football and D2 Football?

This question seems to pop up every year...or a relative facsimile of it. Based on some of the responses within this thread, it does appear we are finally getting more folks to realize the reality that the gaps in talent between the divisions are indeed sizable...and will stay that way. Yes, a DII team can beat an FCS team once-in-a-while, but that isn't indicative of a "closing of the gap".

The higher divisions have more scholarships...this is the most important (and arguably, the only true) difference between the divisions. Offering more scholarships doesn't ensure you more talent. It DOES ensure you much greater DEPTH. DEPTH may not manifest itself on a particular Saturday. Over eleven or twelve of them, it becomes BLINDINGLY evident. Depth alone will always keep the gap sizable.

I agree with Ian and other experienced observers out here that the overall level of play in D2 isn't the same as it was ten+ years ago. I can't say for sure whether it might rebound some day or not. Most things are cyclical in some fashion, and different factors make things move/adjust/etc. The premise that the level of play is shrinking between FCS and D2 is a hard one for me to buy in general...add in that D2 seems to be down a bit, and said premise becomes even harder for me to buy.

I also agree that how things are funded can impact the question at hand. It is undoubtedly worthy of a separate thread altogether, but in short I have hard time arguing that Herb isn't on to something with the premise that the P5 (or some assemblage thereof) will break off from the NCAA. Let's face it: The basketball tournament that is 75%+ theirs (and its TV rights) combined with their football games (and those TV rights) essentially pay for everything the NCAA does. If I'm a president of a well-branded and successful P5 school, I'm absolutely asking the question of why money we figure prominently in generating is helping fund things for other entities that don't add any return to the kitty. The landscape of college athletics is always open to change, but I think some of the shifts that are coming could be larger than any we have seen in our lifetimes.

[Herb Street]

Re: Is the gap closing between D1 FCS Football and D2 Football?

The higher divisions have more scholarships...this is the most important (and arguably, the only true) difference between the divisions. Offering more scholarships doesn't ensure you more talent.

[Tony Nicolette]

Re: Is the gap closing between D1 FCS Football and D2 Football?

Yikes...this is better as a live conversation than one where you have to type.

My real point (that you cut off) is that DEPTH is the only truly guaranteed advantage offering more scholarships provides. Yes, you're not wrong that it nearly always means you're getting 'mostly' better athletes also...and that's part of where depth comes in. MORE of those good athletes.

It has been my observation that more schollies doesn't necessarily mean that you'll always have a wide talent gap...you'll just have MORE kids on your roster with at least the baseline talent gap. And, in the context of individual head-to-head match-ups, that frontline gap may not be super large or noticeable...hence an 'any given Saturday' result. Over an entire season, the # of kids on the team with that baseline talent gap vs. a team(s) on the other end of that gap, and you'll see more predictable Saturday's than 'any givens'.

In a way, your post proves my point. You're right...the # of frontliners at LSU is certainly greater than that of North Texas. BUT, North Texas is actually FBS and has 85 schollies...same as LSU. So, they BOTH have more schollies. They are both guaranteed depth. BUT, LSU will actually have even more elite talent. LSU has better tradition, better facilities, better recruiting, whatever. SO, North Texas has the 85 scholarships and their depth will certainly be better than that of an FCS...but even they can't get the same talent as LSU. Hence more scholarships means you'll have more kids with the baseline talent gap, or depth. More scholarships don't guarantee that you'll have more elite talent.

My ultimate point is that trying to say "D2 had this record vs. FCS opponents over the last X-years, they are winning more and more of these games, the gap is closing" isn't an analysis I would make. My opinion is that perspective is looking at isolated incidences and a limited sample size, and isn't truly indicative of the broader truth.

[Mulerider]

Re: Is the gap closing between D1 FCS Football and D2 Football?

yikes...this is better as a live conversation than one where you have to type.

My real point (that you cut off) is that depth is the only truly guaranteed advantage offering more scholarships provides. Yes, you're not wrong that it nearly always means you're getting 'mostly' better athletes also...and that's part of where depth comes in. More of those good athletes.

It has been my observation that more schollies doesn't necessarily mean that you'll always have a wide talent gap...you'll just have more kids on your roster with at least the baseline talent gap. And, in the context of individual head-to-head match-ups, that frontline gap may not be super large or noticeable...hence an 'any given saturday' result. Over an entire season, the # of kids on the team with that baseline talent gap vs. A team(s) on the other end of that gap, and you'll see more predictable saturday's than 'any givens'.

In a way, your post proves my point. You're right...the # of frontliners at lsu is certainly greater than that of north texas. But, north texas is actually fbs and has 85 schollies...same as lsu. So, they both have more schollies. They are both guaranteed depth. But, lsu will actually have even more elite talent. Lsu has better tradition, better facilities, better recruiting, whatever. So, north texas has the 85 scholarships and their depth will certainly be better than that of an fcs...but even they can't get the same talent as lsu. Hence more scholarships means you'll have more kids with the baseline talent gap, or depth. More scholarships don't guarantee that you'll have more elite talent.

My ultimate point is that trying to say "d2 had this record vs. Fcs opponents over the last x-years, they are winning more and more of these games, the gap is closing" isn't an analysis i would make. My opinion is that perspective is looking at isolated incidences and a limited sample size, and isn't truly indicative of the broader truth.

great great analysis.

[boatcapt]

Re: Is the gap closing between D1 FCS Football and D2 Football?

Yikes...this is better as a live conversation than one where you have to type.

My real point (that you cut off) is that DEPTH is the only truly guaranteed advantage offering more scholarships provides. Yes, you're not wrong that it nearly always means you're getting 'mostly' better athletes also...and that's part of where depth comes in. MORE of those good athletes.

It has been my observation that more schollies doesn't necessarily mean that you'll always have a wide talent gap...you'll just have MORE kids on your roster with at least the baseline talent gap. And, in the context of individual head-to-head match-ups, that frontline gap may not be super large or noticeable...hence an 'any given Saturday' result. Over an entire season, the # of kids on the team with that baseline talent gap vs. a team(s) on the other end of that gap, and you'll see more predictable Saturday's than 'any givens'.

In a way, your post proves my point. You're right...the # of frontliners at LSU is certainly greater than that of North Texas. BUT, North Texas is actually FBS and has 85 schollies...same as LSU. So, they BOTH have more schollies. They are both guaranteed depth. BUT, LSU will actually have even more elite talent. LSU has better tradition, better facilities, better recruiting, whatever. SO, North Texas has the 85 scholarships and their depth will certainly be better than that of an FCS...but even they can't get the same talent as LSU. Hence more scholarships means you'll have more kids with the baseline talent gap, or depth. More scholarships don't guarantee that you'll have more elite talent.

My ultimate point is that trying to say "D2 had this record vs. FCS opponents over the last X-years, they are winning more and more of these games, the gap is closing" isn't an analysis I would make. My opinion is that perspective is looking at isolated incidences and a limited sample size, and isn't truly indicative of the broader truth.

Depends on how a team allocates scholly $'s. I would also point out that beyond 5 star blue chip players (players that almost NO FCS or DII ever get's out of HS), incoming freshmen that get schollys are almost always going to set some level of partial scholly. FCS with more scholly $'s is going to be able to offer more money generally to these players than a DII. These incoming freshmen almost always start their college careers as "depth" and some work their way to starter. So DII's start at a disadvantage in total scholly $'s which impacts the amount they can give to incoming freshmen "depth" players which impacts the quality of players that ultimately work their way into the starting lineup. Scholly $'s have a snowball effect that go's beyond simply "depth."

[Tony Nicolette]

Re: Is the gap closing between D1 FCS Football and D2 Football?

Depends on how a team allocates scholly $'s. I would also point out that beyond 5 star blue chip players (players that almost NO FCS or DII ever get's out of HS), incoming freshmen that get schollys are almost always going to set some level of partial scholly. FCS with more scholly $'s is going to be able to offer more money generally to these players than a DII. These incoming freshmen almost always start their college careers as "depth" and some work their way to starter. So DII's start at a disadvantage in total scholly $'s which impacts the amount they can give to incoming freshmen "depth" players which impacts the quality of players that ultimately work their way into the starting lineup. Scholly $'s have a snowball effect that go's beyond simply "depth."

Of course they do. But you too seem to be missing my point...depth is the only thing that those additional schollies GUARANTEE. They do NOT guarantee a bevy of elite talent. AND, that depth is what separates the divisions, particularly over the course of an entire season (aka, a larger sample size).

And, your analysis on the progression of those dollars and players is totally accurate. What's funny is that it too helps bolster my point that the gap between the divisions is NOT closing.