New roster limits for FBS means big changes coming for D2 football

[MooseLodge]

Due to the recent House vs. NCAA settlement, the way is paved for colleges to compensate athletes. The downside is that there will now be a roster cap in FBS of 105.

With the average FBS school carrying 128 athletes, that means 23 athletes per team will be looking for a new home. With 130 FBS programs, that translates into a staggering almost 3,000 football players that will be forced to transfer, likely downward, and as soon as this spring.

The trickle-down effect of this is obvious - those athletes will be taking over a bunch of spots at FCS schools, which means FCS players will be trickling down to D2, etc. With this sudden glut, look for very small high school signing classes this year. D2 programs signing big high school classes this year are taking up spots on their rosters for much more talented, and experienced, players.

D2 programs that are paying attention can turn over their starting rosters with FCS and lower level FBS talent as soon as next fall.

[Purple Mav Man]

There might still be really large HS classes for some schools. Some use it as an enrollment boost.

[MooseLodge]

As a result of the House settlement, I predict that, within six months, there will be schools in the FCS ranks either dropping football to stay D1 in their other sports, or reclassifying to D2. Let's check back in May and see if I was right.

[MilSF]

As a result of the House settlement, I predict that, within six months, there will be numerous schools in the FCS ranks either dropping football to stay D1 in their other sports, or reclassifying to D2. Let's check back in May and see if I was right.

Can you go over your reasoning for this prognostication? They will have more talent and a smaller (cheaper) team to play with. NIL pools wont magically increase. It will be a “buyer’s market” I would think. I’ll admit I could very well be overlooking something obvious, but I can’t think of why this will put FCS in a bind.

[MooseLodge]

Can you go over your reasoning for this prognostication? They will have more talent and a smaller (cheaper) team to play with. NIL pools wont magically increase. It will be a “buyer’s market” I would think. I’ll admit I could very well be overlooking something obvious, but I can’t think of why this will put FCS in a bind.

Sure. I'm pretty well connected with one upper Midwest FCS AD, and the concerns are real.

1. Each FCS school is having to pay its share of the House Settlement amount, which is $2-3 million per FCS school. That's a killer.
2. Scholarship limits have increased by 20 scholarships for football. It is presumed that this is for FCS as well, If a school is fully funded, that's another $450K "expense" for the school, minimum, in FCS.
3. Because scholarships have increased for football, they will also have to be increased on the women's sports side to satisfy Title IX. Scholarships must be set according to male-female enrollment ratios, according to federal law. Should football or baseball programs provide scholarships up to the roster limit, they must be offset by providing the same number of additional scholarships for female sports or reducing scholarships from the pool of other men’s sports. That could lead to some campuses eliminating men’s sports or perhaps adding new women’s teams. For example, volleyball has gone from 12 to 18 scholarships. A number of FCS schools already have a bare minimum number of women's sports. So, sports may have to be added in order to have those extra football scholarships. That's also more money for coaches, travel, etc.
4. For football, rosters are now limited to 105. Many FCS schools are carrying up to 150 - with a chunk of those being tuition and fees payors. With the new roster limits, that could be a loss of 45 tuition-paying athletes. About a $900K loss in revenue on average per FCS school.
5. Declining enrollments at most schools. Like D2 and D3, FCS programs are funded by student fees. Very little of the athletics budget comes from ticket sales and sponsorships - 10 percent or less usually. Most universities are experiencing flat to declining enrollments due to the "Enrollment Cliff" effect. You can do a Google search for that term for more information. So while costs are rising dramatically, revenues are going to tend to be flat to declining.
6. Tuition and fees freezes. To help combat the rising costs of education, some states, including Texas, have issued a tuition and fees freeze for the next two years. That's a good thing for tuition payors, but a huge problem for athletics programs that are already financially struggling. They can't necessarily raise student fees to make up for shortfalls.


D2 has some built in safeguards that are going to become increasingly attractive to FCS programs that are sinking financially, including no roster limits, and comparatively low scholarship limits.

[SW_Mustang]

Can you go over your reasoning for this prognostication? They will have more talent and a smaller (cheaper) team to play with. NIL pools wont magically increase. It will be a “buyer’s market” I would think. I’ll admit I could very well be overlooking something obvious, but I can’t think of why this will put FCS in a bind.

Usually any time there's any kind of change - there's a "sky is falling" contingent.

[SW_Mustang]

With the average FBS school carrying 128 athletes, that means 23 athletes per team will be looking for a new home. With 130 FBS programs, that translates into a staggering almost 3,000 football players that will be forced to transfer, likely downward, and as soon as this spring.

The trickle-down effect of this is obvious - those athletes will be taking over a bunch of spots at FCS schools, which means FCS players will be trickling down to D2, etc. With this sudden glut, look for very small high school signing classes this year. D2 programs signing big high school classes this year are taking up spots on their rosters for much more talented, and experienced, players.

No. Eliminating 3,000 roster spots is not the same thing as 3,000 players transferring.

Those roster spots just won't be backfilled after a player departs a team. Maybe some contingent gets cut that otherwise wouldn't, but the effect will be negligible. Could recruiting class sizes suffer going forward? Maybe, maybe not. Personally I couldn't care less about the size of a recruiting class, but that's just me.

All of that assumes that every FBS team is fully stocked to begin with. If they're cutting roster spots not occupied by anyone already - then there isn't a problem. Will it force movement? Yes, some. Will it force ~3,000 players to go FCS? No.

[MooseLodge]

No. Eliminating 3,000 roster spots is not the same thing as 3,000 players transferring.

Those roster spots just won't be backfilled after a player departs a team. Maybe some contingent gets cut that otherwise wouldn't, but the effect will be negligible. Could recruiting class sizes suffer going forward? Maybe, maybe not. Personally I couldn't care less about the size of a recruiting class, but that's just me.

All of that assumes that every FBS team is fully stocked to begin with. If they're cutting roster spots not occupied by anyone already - then there isn't a problem. Will it force movement? Yes, some. Will it force ~3,000 players to go FCS? No.

Yes, eliminating 3,000 roster spots is the same thing as 3,000 players transferring. Unless they just quit playing.

Let me connect the dots for you.

There are 262 D1 football teams, FBS and FCS. The average roster size is 132. The new roster limit is 105. That is a loss of 27 players per team, on average. 27 X 262 = 7,074 players either transferring somewhere else or quitting.

I would call that more than "negligible."

Watch this video starting at the 4:54 mark. Then multiply it times 262 programs. Matt Rhule mentions the profound effect on the lower divisions specifically.

Nebraska Coach Matt Rhule Laments 'End of an Era' for College Football: Heartbreaking

[SW_Mustang]

Yes, eliminating 3,000 roster spots is the same thing as 3,000 players transferring. Unless they just quit playing.

Let me connect the dots for you.

There are 262 D1 football teams, FBS and FCS. The average roster size is 132. The new roster limit is 105. That is a loss of 27 players per team, on average. 27 X 262 = 7,074 players either transferring somewhere else or quitting.

I would call that more than "negligible."

Watch this video starting at the 4:54 mark. Then multiply it times 262 programs. Matt Rhule mentions the profound effect on the lower divisions specifically.

Nebraska Coach Matt Rhule Laments 'End of an Era' for College Football: Heartbreaking

Here are some numbers I have:

-Grad Students playing DI (2024) = 3,198
-FBS Transfer Portal (2024) 3,700
-FCS Transfer Portal (2022) = 626

Let's assume:

-3,000 of the grad students exhaust eligibility.
-1,400 of FBS transfers exit football via the portal (best stat I could find)
-400 of FCS transfers exit football via the portal (best stat I could find)
-400 FBS players transferred below DI (stat was murky with the wording on this one, so I'm rounding down a bit)
-50 FCS players transferred below DI (again, stat was murky here)
-50 underclassmen declare for the NFL draft (real stat is 58 in 2024, rounding down for simplicity)

As for the transferring players, these guys are transferring anyway - regardless of what the roster limits are. Teams just won't backfill for those guys.

We can expect 5,300 DI players vacate roster spots in 2024. Teams won't fill those roster spots, they'll eliminate them. Of the 7,074 roster spots that need to be eliminated, I've eliminated all but 1,774.

Here's what I'm not accounting for:
-Players quitting by means other than the transfer portal (33% of freshman quit, for example)
-Players medically retiring
-Players being cut/dropped by their team, for whatever reason
-Non-grad student seniors exhausting their eligibility (seems rare these days, but some are).

For fun - let's just assume those factors take up 50% of the remaining roster spots (it's likely way more).

You'd have 887 FBS/FCS players to divide among 162 DII teams, 243 DIII teams, and 93 NAIA teams. That averages to each team gaining 1.8 players/team. Now - obviously, D2 takes the heavy load and it tapers off as it goes down, but DIII also doesn't have roster limits, so they can act as a catchall towards the bottom.

I assumed JUCO pulls from the transfer portal - but some contingent of that 887 newly to-be-rehomed college football player pool will go that route as well.


My math might not exactly line up here as I threw this together quite quickly, and I'm obviously making some assumptions/rounding. My point in all of this is - a large contingent of players vacate roster spots every year through various means. Two years from now and you won't notice a difference when attending a football game, if at all.

[MooseLodge]

Two years from now and you won't notice a difference when attending a football game, if at all.

Roster attrition is normal. So yes, a portion of the 7000 would have been gone, anyway. Assume one fourth of those are seniors or grads. That still leaves over 5000 either quitting or transferring.

I don't know that a fan attending a football game would have noticed next week, much less in two years. My information is based more on the effect on the athletes, including 2025 high school signees. The roster reductions are going to mean a lot of kids are going to have to go to the lower divisions to be on a roster, or they are done. That doesn't mean an Ohio State transfer-out player will be playing for Youngstown State next year. That transfer-out player might end up at. Cincinnati, with the Cincinnati transfer-out ending up at Ohio U, and the Ohio U transfer-out player ending up at Youngstown, etc.

D2 rosters are going to be looking at a bunch of FCS transfer-outs who can't find a home at that level anymore.

High school recruits? Unless you are 4 or 5 star, good luck this year at the P4 level - it ain't happening.

[SW_Mustang]

Roster attrition is normal. So yes, a portion of the 7000 would have been gone, anyway. Assume one fourth of those are seniors or grads. That still leaves over 5000 either quitting or transferring.

I don't know that a fan attending a football game would have noticed next week, much less in two years. My information is based more on the effect on the athletes, including 2025 high school signees. The roster reductions are going to mean a lot of kids are going to have to go to the lower divisions to be on a roster, or they are done. That doesn't mean an Ohio State transfer-out player will be playing for Youngstown State next year. That transfer-out player might end up at. Cincinnati, with the Cincinnati transfer-out ending up at Ohio U, and the Ohio U transfer-out player ending up at Youngstown, etc.

D2 rosters are going to be looking at a bunch of FCS transfer-outs who can't find a home at that level anymore.

High school recruits? Unless you are 4 or 5 star, good luck this year at the P4 level - it ain't happening.

If they exit division I college football - be it by quitting, medically retiring, graduating - by whatever means, or if they transfer below DI - cut their roster spot. Then you won't have to force additional guys to transfer. That's my whole point. If you look at average annual turnover, it probably exceeds the 7,000 mark at DI. I left it below that number to highlight how little of an affect this will have even if 800 guys do have to transfer.

You're also looking at transferring in a very linear sense. They aren't all going FCS - many of them would struggle at DII. After the first coin flip of freshman season - it doesn't matter how good they were in high school.

Anyway - I want my team to win, so send 95 of those magical FBS guys to me. I'll take them with open arms. Don't care which freshmen we have to tell to kick rocks. It's college, not peewee.

[MooseLodge]

If they exit division I college football - be it by quitting, medically retiring, graduating - by whatever means, or if they transfer below DI - cut their roster spot. Then you won't have to force additional guys to transfer. That's my whole point. If you look at average annual turnover, it probably exceeds the 7,000 mark at DI. I left it below that number to highlight how little of an affect this will have even if 800 guys do have to transfer.

You're also looking at transferring in a very linear sense. They aren't all going FCS - many of them would struggle at DII. After the first coin flip of freshman season - it doesn't matter how good they were in high school.

Anyway - I want my team to win, so send 95 of those magical FBS guys to me. I'll take them with open arms. Don't care which freshmen we have to tell to kick rocks. It's college, not peewee.

I guess Matt Rhule didn't know what he's talking about. On your 800 transfer number, there are already over 1,000 in the portal, with games left in the season.