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SAC Week 4 Preview

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  • SAC Week 4 Preview

    I may not have the time to do this every week, but decided to do it for this week. If there is something you would like to see added to a weekly preview, please send me a private message. I'm a man of the people!

    SAC Week Four
    Mars Hill (1-1, 1-0) at Barton (2-1, 1-0)
    2:00 PM
    Truist Stadium-Wilson, NC
    Barton -0.5/OU at 50.5

    Mars Hill Barton
    22.5 (12th in SAC) PPG 24.7 (8th in SAC)
    358.0 (6th in SAC) YPG 316.3 (8th in SAC)
    25.5 (7th) Defense PPG 20.0 (3rd)
    272.0 (3rd) Defense YPG 348.7 (8th)
    In our early afternoon opener this week, Mars Hill heads down the mountain and five hours across the Tar Heel state to take on Barton in Barton’s SAC home opener. This should be an exciting game, as both teams came into the season with high expectations.

    Mars Hill won their SAC opener coming off a bye week in dominating fashion against Catawba. They outgained the Indians by 214 yards and kept them off the scoreboard until 2:26 remained in the ball game to win 38-7. Led by talented West Florida transfer Jervon Newton, the Lions rushed for 332 yards in the victory. Newton had 141 yards on 17 carries, and the Lions had two others tote the rock at least 10 times. The Lions will need quarterback Jimmy Urzua to have a much better game if they are going to hold off the Bulldogs.

    Barton is coming off a rather odd game against UVA Wise. As I mention later, the game was tied at 14 at the half before Barton opened it up in a short amount of time in the 2nd half of the 3rd quarter. Star running back Jordan Terrell currently leads the conference in rushing (107.0 YPG), while quarterback Jaquan Lynch is third at just over 90 yards per contest giving the bulldogs a very good 1-2 punch coming out of the backfield.

    The key for both teams is to contain the run game and force both Urzua and Lynch to beat you with their arms. I think Mars Hill will do a little better and stopping the run and come out with the victory in Wilson on Saturday afternoon.

    Prediction: Mars Hill 24, Barton 23.

    Tusculum (2-1, 0-1) at Catawba (1-2, 0-1)
    4:00 PM
    Shuford Stadium-Salisbury, NC
    Tusculum -7.5/OU at 51.5
    Tusculum (2-1, 0-1) Catawba (1-2, 0-1)
    34.3 (2nd in SAC) PPG 24.0 (9th in SAC)
    375.0 (4th in SAC) YPG 254.0 (12th in SAC)
    20.3 (4th) Defense PPG 30.3 (11th)
    216.7 (2nd) Defense YPG 408.3 (11th)
    We head to Salisbury for matchup # of the week, as both Tusculum and Catawba look to get their first SAC win of the 2022 season. Both teams are coming off disappointing week three losses.

    Coach Odom and the Pioneers struggled to get anything going last weekend against the stout Wingate defense. The Pioneers managed just over 240 yards of total offense and were sacked a dozen, yes TWELVE, times by the Bulldogs defense. Tre Simmons was sacked so much it caused the Pioneers to finish with 14 net yards rushing. The offensive line will have to have a better week if the Pioneers are going to avoid the upset in Salisbury.

    Three weeks into the season and the argument could be made that Catawba might be the 12th best team in the SAC. They are 9th in scoring offense, last in yards per game, and 11th in scoring defense and yards allowed per game. Just like the feedback over the new branding, it has not gone over well for 10th year head man Curtis Walker. After an opening win against lifeless Livingstone, the Indians have been stomped out by Shorter and Mars Hill the past two weeks. Coach Walker’s crew is going to get back to what worked in week 1 in order to stay close and pull the upset.

    Prediction: Tusculum 38, Catawba 16.

    Emory & Henry (1-2, 0-1) at Wingate (3-0, 1-0)
    6:00 PM
    Irwin Belk Stadium-Wingate, NC
    Wingate at -25.5/OU at 50.5
    Emory & Henry Wingate
    28.0 (7th in SAC) PPG 23.0 (11th in SAC)
    334.3 (7th in SAC) YPG 271.3 (10th in SAC)
    28.7 (9th) Defense PPG 6.7 (1st)
    321.0 (7th) Defense YPG 204.0 (1st)
    Wingate plays host to SAC newcomer Emory & Henry later on Saturday evening and the Bulldogs are hoping to avoid getting stung. The Wasps took defending SAC Champion Newberry to double overtime last week and would love to pull off an upset this week in Wingate. I’m sure Coach Reich and company would prefer they hold off!

    The Bulldogs come into this game after a defensive masterclass against Tusculum last week, where they sacked QB Tre Simmons a dozen times and wreaked havoc all day. But there has to be some concern for the Dogs, for as great as their defense has been through three weeks (1st in the conference in scoring defense and total defense), Shaw Crocker and the Bulldog offense has been on the other end of the spectrum. They have put up an average of 23 points per outing and ranking 10th in yards per game. Tusculum held the Dogs to 212 yards of offense and in order to avoid the upset, Wingate will have to get things going on that side of the ball.

    For the Emory & Henry Wasps, their first season in the SAC could not have started better (except for finishing the job). The Wasps showed they may not be a pushover as expected as they continue to transition to Division II level football players. E&H put up a solid fight and quarterback Kyle Short had a pretty solid game against the defending SAC champs. If the Wasps can play as well as they did last weekend, they may pull the stunner.

    Wingate is a huge favorite in this game, and while I think the Bulldogs will take care of business, I do worry that their lack of offense may get them down the road against the better teams in the SAC. I expect a close game early, with the Bulldogs pulling away in the second half.

    Prediction: Wingate 34, Emory & Henry 20.

    Carson-Newman (1-2, 0-1) at Lenoir-Rhyne (2-1, 1-0)
    6:00 PM
    Moretz Stadium-Hickory, NC
    Lenoir-Rhyne at -21.5/OU at 54.5
    Carson-Newman Lenoir-Rhyne
    23.7 (10th in SAC) PPG 28.3 (6th in SAC)
    369.7 (5th in SAC) YPG 312.7 (9th in SAC)
    28.0 (8th) Defense PPG 22.0 (6th)
    372.3 (10th) Defense YPG 285.0 (4th)
    Since Lenoir-Rhyne beat Carson-Newman in the 2010 season, I do not know of one SAC school having another SAC school’s “number” like the Bears have had the Eagles. Even in years when the Eagles have had a very good team, the Bears seem to always get in the way. Whether it be the 2013 2nd Round playoff matchup when L-R stormed back to win 27-20, or in 2019 when Carson-Newman smacked eventual national champion West Florida and would’ve gotten a chance to do it again in the postseason if L-R hadn’t been in the way. This year though, maybe the Eagles can return the favor and play spoiler.

    After a disappointing loss to Limestone in double overtime, led by multiple special teams miscues and kicker Nate Craft going 0-for-3, you have to feel the Eagles are close to turning the corner but cannot seem to get out of their own way. In week 1 a defensive stop on fourth down near the end of the first half killed any momentum they had against West Georgia, and Saturday special teams kept doing the same. Mike Clowney’s got talent, but foolish mistakes and defensive lapses cannot happen against a team I projected to go unbeaten in the SAC this year. Ivan Corbin is a good multi-skilled QB and the Eagles have the best wide receiver in the league potentially in Braxton Westfield.

    The Bears rebounded nicely from their Ferris State loss against Erskine last week. The game was never in doubt for Mike Jacob’s bunch, led by almost 300 yards passing from Sean White. Dwayne McGee had a solid game as well, averaging nearly 6 yard per carry, to lead the Bears. The Bears did what good teams are supposed to do on Saturday: spank the teams you are supposed to. Some of the L-R faithful seem to have some doubts about Jacob’s after the Ferris loss and even before hand, but Ferris is a whole different animal. The Bears will be fine. They are in the top half of the league in scoring offense and defense and should dispatch the Eagles on Saturday and continue the trend.

    Prediction: Lenoir-Rhyne 38, Carson-Newman 20.

    Erskine (2-1, 0-1) at Newberry (3-0, 1-0)
    6:00 PM
    Setzler Stadium-Newberry, SC
    Newberry at -27.5/OU at 46.5
    Erskine Newberry
    30.7 (4th in SAC) PPG 31.7 (3rd in SAC)
    266.0 (11th in SAC) YPG 399.0 (3rd in SAC)
    21.0 (5th) Defense PPG 17.0 (2nd)
    301.7 (5th) Defense YPG 311.0 (6th)
    Matchup #5 of the week sends us to the Graveyard, as the Wolves of Newberry take on the Flying Fleet of Erskine. Two schools separated by just 54 miles will meet for the first time as SAC rivals.

    Last week there was good news and there was bad news for both of these clubs. Good news for Erskine was they got their first SAC game out of the way, and the Wolves survived a double overtime thriller against newcomer Emory & Henry. Bad news for the Flying Fleet is they were never really in the game against Lenoir-Rhyne. The Bears led 28-0 at the half and it wasn’t until the 10:23 mark of the third that they got on the board, as the Flying Fleet fell 42-20 at home. Erskine is 11th in the conference in yards per game, but 4th in scoring. However their numbers are a tad skewed after that debacle against Fort Lauderdale in week 1. The defense gave up nearly 540 yards against L-R last week and it won’t get any easier this week with the 3rd best offense in the conference tapping in.

    Newberry and Coach Knight probably had to take some aspirin after last week’s double overtime game against E&H. In fact the Wasps scored first in the overtime session forcing the Wolves to need to score to win or keep playing. The Wolves haven’t exactly looked like a top 10 team the past two weeks, but sometimes laying a whooping on someone can fix all your ailments. Despite getting everything they could handle and some last week, I look for Newberry to bounce back big against their 54 mile rivals.

    Prediction: Newberry 35, Erskine 10.

    UVA Wise (1-2, 0-1) at Limestone (2-1, 1-0)
    7:00 PM
    The Reservation-Gaffney, SC
    Limestone at -5.5/OU at 62.5
    UVA Wise Limestone
    29.0 (5th in SAC) PPG 44.7 (1st in SAC)
    456.0 (2nd in SAC) YPG 476.7 (1st in SAC)
    29.0 (10th) Defense PPG 35.7 (12th)
    355.5 (9th) Defense YPG 481.0 (12th)
    The 6th and final game of the weekend features the Cavaliers of UVA Wise traveling to Gaffney to take on the high-flying Limestone offense. This game reeks of an old school Big 12 offensive shootout. Both the Cavaliers and Saints are near the top of the SAC in offensive rankings, but then both are near the bottom (or at the bottom in the Saints case) in defensive stats.

    The Cavaliers are looking to bounce back after a disappointing game against Barton last Saturday. After being tied up at 14 at the half, Wise may look back at the last 8 ½ minutes of the third quarter as “the one that got away”. Despite outgaining Barton 348-266 and holding stud back Jordan Terrell to 44 yards on 24 carries, the wheels didn’t just fall off the bus late in the third: the bus completely train wrecked. A safety followed by an immediate kickoff return for a touchdown put the Cavaliers down 9 points in just 13 seconds. Less than 4 minutes later the Bulldogs struck again, and slightly 4 ½ minutes later put the game out of reach.

    The Saints meanwhile survived a classic double overtime game at Mossy Creek to earn their first win in school history over Carson-Newman. Despite blowing a two score lead early in the game, the Saints took advantage of multiple C-N special teams mistakes in route to the victory. Tre Stewart had a monster game for Limestone, toting the ball 27 times for 180 yards and 2 scores, including the TD to force a 2nd overtime; and the quarterback duo of Noller & Seter did just enough.

    Prediction: Limestone 41, UVA Wise 37.


  • #2
    I love what you are doing here, really great work! I generally agree, only difference I have is I think the Wingate game will be UGLY and not nearly so high scoring. Still think the Dawgs get the win but don't be surprised to see a (multiple) safeties in the game and a very unorthodox scoreline.

    Comment


    • #3
      Great job Canadarican! Enjoyed reading your insight.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks for taking the time to do this. I enjoyed it and I hope you are right about the Saints! This Saturday also happens to be our first ever game played on campus.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by BEARS View Post
          I love what you are doing here, really great work! I generally agree, only difference I have is I think the Wingate game will be UGLY and not nearly so high scoring. Still think the Dawgs get the win but don't be surprised to see a (multiple) safeties in the game and a very unorthodox scoreline.
          Something like a 26-11 or some nonsense. Absolutely agree. Thanks!

          Comment


          • #6
            Nice work!

            Comment


            • #7
              Very impressed!!! Great job!!!

              Comment

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