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Update to Previous Predictions
I was wrong about Davenport’s football team. I thought they would get by Lincoln and then get crushed their final 3 games. Davenport just created a major mess within the region when it comes to playoff time.
Here is a breakdown of the teams with 3 or less losses going into the final 2 weeks of the season.
GAC – 0 losses: Ouachita Baptist
GAC 2 losses: Harding, Henderson State.
GAC 3 losses: East Central, SE Oklahoma
GLIAC 0 losses: GVSU, Davenport
GLIAC 1 loss: Ferris State
GLIAC 3 losses: SVSU
GLVC 1 loss: Indy, Truman
MIAA: 0 losses: Pitt St
MIAA: 2 losses: Emporia St, NWMSU
MIAA: 3 losses: UNK, Washburn
The region now has 4 undefeated teams, 3 one loss teams, 4 two loss teams and 5 three loss teams praying for a lot of help.
Here is a breakdown of what is left for each of the remaining 16 teams still “contending” for playoff spots.
The undefeated teams:
GVSU: With their win over MTU, GVSU most likely has clinched a playoff spot, but they have the opportunity to still impact the post-season selections in the region. GVSU finishes at home vs Wayne St (who they beat by 39 already this season), and then at fellow undefeated (as of now) Davenport. GVSU sweeping those two games should give the Laker’s the top seed in the region.
Pittsburg St: They finish with 6-3 Washburn and Ft. Hays St. Washburn is an interesting test for Pitt St because they are fighting for their playoff lives. A win over undefeated Pitt St would be a huge boost for the resume. Pitt State, in my opinion is locked into the post-season. They are in a tight battle for the second seed with Ouachita Baptist, who is also undefeated.
Ouachita Baptist: Another strong season has this program fighting for home field a couple rounds into the post-season. The finish to the season will not be easy however. They finish with 6-3 SE Oklahoma and then 2 loss Henderson State in a rivalry game.
Davenport: The Panther’s have to be the surprise team of the region in 2022. . They were picked near the bottom of the GLIAC, but somehow have battled to put themselves in contention for a post-season spot with two week left. Two very difficult weeks with a trip to Ferris St before they host GVSU. This has to be the most difficult final 2 games (and 3 games if you count SVSU) stretch for a team in the country. Somehow they managed to upset SVSU to remain in post-season contention. I still would be shocked to see them finish with a win in either of their last two games, but at 8-2 this team makes a serious case to deserve a post-season bid.
The 1 loss teams: There are three 1 loss teams left in the region.
Ferris: Ferris still has to play Davenport and then at Wayne St. These are both games Ferris should win, so they should secure a post-season bid. They can’t take Davenport lightly however as Ferris barely got by SVSU and Davenport just beat SVSU. They are battling to have a home first round playoff game right now.
Indianapolis: They Greyhounds are in an interesting position with 1 loss and still a game with Truman to finish the season. Assuming both teams survive the games next week, the GLVC title and a playoff game will be on the line when Indy and Truman meet.
Truman: Each week the loss to Davenport looks better and better. Truman is certainly not a playoff lock, but they certainly control their own destiny with a road game at Indy to close the regular season.
2 loss teams: These teams will need some help to get into the post-season, but given some of the remaining matchups they may get what they need.
Harding: They finish with two teams currently below .500, so a two loss finish is very likely. They are absolutely rooting of Ouachita Baptist in the season finale against Henderson St. Harding lost a nail bitter to
Henderson earlier this season, so the tiebreaker does go against Harding if both finish with two losses.
Henderson St: The scenario is pretty simple right now. Win their last two and they should be in, lose a game and they likely don’t make the post-season. A win over Ouachita in the finale would be one of the regions best wins and should get them in with 2 losses. A loss in that game puts them in a mess of teams with 3 losses who might all be outside looking in.
Emporia St: Assuming they beat Lincoln (Mo) next week, their playoffs begin with the NWMSU game the following week. That game, assuming NWMSU beats Missouri Southern is a likely play in game for the post-season. The winner is in, the loser will be on the outside looking in.
NWMSU: See what I said about Emporia St. The game applies. Week 11 vs Emporia will be a play in game for the post-season.
The three loss teams, hoping for a lot of help.
SVSU: I think the Card’s blew their post-season shot by losing to Davenport. I don’t yet know if they cost the GLIAC a shot at three teams in the playoffs though.
East Central and SE Oklahoma: Depending on what happens next week, these two playing in week 11 could impact the post-season hunt. I think East Central is out of contention, but a SE Oklahoma win over
Ouachita next week sets the stage for them to possibly make the playoffs as a 3 loss team.
Washburn and UNK: Washburn needs to upset Pitt State Saturday to have any shot at making the playoffs. If they win that game and then beat Missouri Southern to finish the season, they might be able to slide in with three loss. UNK has the head to head win over Washburn, but lacks the high quality win. Still have a chance to get in, but would need a lot to go right.
Here are my predictions on how the season will unfold and how the region will shake out come selection Sunday:
1) GVSU – The Laker’s will win out, and finish undefeated. Their non-conference schedule plus the road win over Ferris will get the Laker’s the top spot.
2) Pittsburg State – The big apes will win out, but be tested and will also finish undefeated.
3) Ouachita Baptist – I think they are the third undefeated from the region and will end up with a home game to start the post-season.
4) Ferris St- The Bulldogs should finish with just the loss to GVSU and that should secure home field in round 1 of the playoffs.
5) Indianapolis – The Greyhounds will beat Truman to secure the GLVC title and a road trip to Big Rapids to start the playoffs.
6) NWMSU – I think the Bearcats get by Emporia St in week 11, securing another playoff spot and getting up a week 1 rematch with Pittsburg St in the first round.
7) Davenport – This is the oddest of the selections. Davenport will be riding a 2 game losing streak into the post-season, and likely won’t pass the eye test given some of the close games they have had. Why do they get in? In part because of the win over Truman to open the season. Truman will finish as a two loss team and that head to head win will put them in over Truman.
Just missing: Harding: I think Harding finishes as the other two loss team in the region. Harding’s best win will be over team that could finish with 4 losses (SE Oklahoma). That is less than Davenport’s win over a likely 2 loss Truman and a likely 3 loss SVSU.
I was wrong about Davenport’s football team. I thought they would get by Lincoln and then get crushed their final 3 games. Davenport just created a major mess within the region when it comes to playoff time.
Here is a breakdown of the teams with 3 or less losses going into the final 2 weeks of the season.
GAC – 0 losses: Ouachita Baptist
GAC 2 losses: Harding, Henderson State.
GAC 3 losses: East Central, SE Oklahoma
GLIAC 0 losses: GVSU, Davenport
GLIAC 1 loss: Ferris State
GLIAC 3 losses: SVSU
GLVC 1 loss: Indy, Truman
MIAA: 0 losses: Pitt St
MIAA: 2 losses: Emporia St, NWMSU
MIAA: 3 losses: UNK, Washburn
The region now has 4 undefeated teams, 3 one loss teams, 4 two loss teams and 5 three loss teams praying for a lot of help.
Here is a breakdown of what is left for each of the remaining 16 teams still “contending” for playoff spots.
The undefeated teams:
GVSU: With their win over MTU, GVSU most likely has clinched a playoff spot, but they have the opportunity to still impact the post-season selections in the region. GVSU finishes at home vs Wayne St (who they beat by 39 already this season), and then at fellow undefeated (as of now) Davenport. GVSU sweeping those two games should give the Laker’s the top seed in the region.
Pittsburg St: They finish with 6-3 Washburn and Ft. Hays St. Washburn is an interesting test for Pitt St because they are fighting for their playoff lives. A win over undefeated Pitt St would be a huge boost for the resume. Pitt State, in my opinion is locked into the post-season. They are in a tight battle for the second seed with Ouachita Baptist, who is also undefeated.
Ouachita Baptist: Another strong season has this program fighting for home field a couple rounds into the post-season. The finish to the season will not be easy however. They finish with 6-3 SE Oklahoma and then 2 loss Henderson State in a rivalry game.
Davenport: The Panther’s have to be the surprise team of the region in 2022. . They were picked near the bottom of the GLIAC, but somehow have battled to put themselves in contention for a post-season spot with two week left. Two very difficult weeks with a trip to Ferris St before they host GVSU. This has to be the most difficult final 2 games (and 3 games if you count SVSU) stretch for a team in the country. Somehow they managed to upset SVSU to remain in post-season contention. I still would be shocked to see them finish with a win in either of their last two games, but at 8-2 this team makes a serious case to deserve a post-season bid.
The 1 loss teams: There are three 1 loss teams left in the region.
Ferris: Ferris still has to play Davenport and then at Wayne St. These are both games Ferris should win, so they should secure a post-season bid. They can’t take Davenport lightly however as Ferris barely got by SVSU and Davenport just beat SVSU. They are battling to have a home first round playoff game right now.
Indianapolis: They Greyhounds are in an interesting position with 1 loss and still a game with Truman to finish the season. Assuming both teams survive the games next week, the GLVC title and a playoff game will be on the line when Indy and Truman meet.
Truman: Each week the loss to Davenport looks better and better. Truman is certainly not a playoff lock, but they certainly control their own destiny with a road game at Indy to close the regular season.
2 loss teams: These teams will need some help to get into the post-season, but given some of the remaining matchups they may get what they need.
Harding: They finish with two teams currently below .500, so a two loss finish is very likely. They are absolutely rooting of Ouachita Baptist in the season finale against Henderson St. Harding lost a nail bitter to
Henderson earlier this season, so the tiebreaker does go against Harding if both finish with two losses.
Henderson St: The scenario is pretty simple right now. Win their last two and they should be in, lose a game and they likely don’t make the post-season. A win over Ouachita in the finale would be one of the regions best wins and should get them in with 2 losses. A loss in that game puts them in a mess of teams with 3 losses who might all be outside looking in.
Emporia St: Assuming they beat Lincoln (Mo) next week, their playoffs begin with the NWMSU game the following week. That game, assuming NWMSU beats Missouri Southern is a likely play in game for the post-season. The winner is in, the loser will be on the outside looking in.
NWMSU: See what I said about Emporia St. The game applies. Week 11 vs Emporia will be a play in game for the post-season.
The three loss teams, hoping for a lot of help.
SVSU: I think the Card’s blew their post-season shot by losing to Davenport. I don’t yet know if they cost the GLIAC a shot at three teams in the playoffs though.
East Central and SE Oklahoma: Depending on what happens next week, these two playing in week 11 could impact the post-season hunt. I think East Central is out of contention, but a SE Oklahoma win over
Ouachita next week sets the stage for them to possibly make the playoffs as a 3 loss team.
Washburn and UNK: Washburn needs to upset Pitt State Saturday to have any shot at making the playoffs. If they win that game and then beat Missouri Southern to finish the season, they might be able to slide in with three loss. UNK has the head to head win over Washburn, but lacks the high quality win. Still have a chance to get in, but would need a lot to go right.
Here are my predictions on how the season will unfold and how the region will shake out come selection Sunday:
1) GVSU – The Laker’s will win out, and finish undefeated. Their non-conference schedule plus the road win over Ferris will get the Laker’s the top spot.
2) Pittsburg State – The big apes will win out, but be tested and will also finish undefeated.
3) Ouachita Baptist – I think they are the third undefeated from the region and will end up with a home game to start the post-season.
4) Ferris St- The Bulldogs should finish with just the loss to GVSU and that should secure home field in round 1 of the playoffs.
5) Indianapolis – The Greyhounds will beat Truman to secure the GLVC title and a road trip to Big Rapids to start the playoffs.
6) NWMSU – I think the Bearcats get by Emporia St in week 11, securing another playoff spot and getting up a week 1 rematch with Pittsburg St in the first round.
7) Davenport – This is the oddest of the selections. Davenport will be riding a 2 game losing streak into the post-season, and likely won’t pass the eye test given some of the close games they have had. Why do they get in? In part because of the win over Truman to open the season. Truman will finish as a two loss team and that head to head win will put them in over Truman.
Just missing: Harding: I think Harding finishes as the other two loss team in the region. Harding’s best win will be over team that could finish with 4 losses (SE Oklahoma). That is less than Davenport’s win over a likely 2 loss Truman and a likely 3 loss SVSU.