This game being in Hays makes a big difference imo. Not only that, if FHSU's offense shows up decently in any form, then they should win. Just can't have a MoWest/ESU type games with a bunch of stupid turnovers and for sure in the redzone.
FHSU needs to show up take care of business early put the game away early and build some confidence rolling into the NWMSU game. That's the one we have been waiting for all year.
FHSU needs to show up take care of business early put the game away early and build some confidence rolling into the NWMSU game. That's the one we have been waiting for all year.
I'm hoping the Tigers are waiting on NW when they play Lindenwood.
So I have a gut feeling that this game will be a bit closer than most on the pickem are guessing.
LU has struggled to find their rythm against the better defense of the league, but each time they go out, it seems that they do a little better job of adjusting. Last week, LU was only the 3rd team this year to manage more than 2 TDs vs. the juggernaut NW defense. Not that 17 points is anything to crow about, but it's an improvement from last year at this time.
Last year, this game came down to the wire, with a miscue by our backup QB who had to go in for 1 play possibly being the difference. Hays came into the game with one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing only 11 points a game. Our QB at the time Najee Jackson was able to shred the Tigers defense for 365 yds and 3 TDs. This year, Najee is playing WR, and our QB play is noticeably better than last. The LU offense has most certainly taken a step forward while the Hays defense (still VERY good), isn't quite as good as last years.... that'll happen when you lose a Nathan Shephard to the NFL. I understand it's not as simple as that, but the potential is there for the Lions to put up enough points to win this game.
On the flip side, the Tigers are a little 1 dimensional with one of the better passing attacks in the game, but a below average running attack. I can't say for certain how they'll attack the Lions, but they may try to lean on the run a little more given that LU allows 185 yards a game, the most of any team not name Southern or the Riverhawks. The Lions have one of the better pass defense in the conference.
As always, the long trip will be factored in on this as well. I believe that probably played into the close call the Tigers had in St. Charles last year.
I think the Lions figure out a way to get a win here.
So I have a gut feeling that this game will be a bit closer than most on the pickem are guessing.
LU has struggled to find their rythm against the better defense of the league, but each time they go out, it seems that they do a little better job of adjusting. Last week, LU was only the 3rd team this year to manage more than 2 TDs vs. the juggernaut NW defense. Not that 17 points is anything to crow about, but it's an improvement from last year at this time.
Last year, this game came down to the wire, with a miscue by our backup QB who had to go in for 1 play possibly being the difference. Hays came into the game with one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing only 11 points a game. Our QB at the time Najee Jackson was able to shred the Tigers defense for 365 yds and 3 TDs. This year, Najee is playing WR, and our QB play is noticeably better than last. The LU offense has most certainly taken a step forward while the Hays defense (still VERY good), isn't quite as good as last years.... that'll happen when you lose a Nathan Shephard to the NFL. I understand it's not as simple as that, but the potential is there for the Lions to put up enough points to win this game.
On the flip side, the Tigers are a little 1 dimensional with one of the better passing attacks in the game, but a below average running attack. I can't say for certain how they'll attack the Lions, but they may try to lean on the run a little more given that LU allows 185 yards a game, the most of any team not name Southern or the Riverhawks. The Lions have one of the better pass defense in the conference.
As always, the long trip will be factored in on this as well. I believe that probably played into the close call the Tigers had in St. Charles last year.
I think the Lions figure out a way to get a win here.
LU- 27
FHSU- 24
I guess "notably" isn't that strong of a word, but is the QB play really that much better this year? Brister has passer efficiency of 124.4 for 208 yards per game this year. Jackson was 121.8 for 215 ypg last year. Brister is running for 50 ypg this year, while Jackson was at 20 ypg last year. Considering the defenses played and the defenses remaining, it wouldn't be shocking if Brister's numbers drop off down the stretch.
I guess you'd be arguing that the play of the WRs has dropped off from last year to this year and Brister is making up for it, but the TE play is definitely better this year. I'm not sure QB play is that much of a difference.
(This post also includes my bias of Brister not being that great against Pitt State this year and Jackson having a really nice game against Pitt State last year.)
I guess "notably" isn't that strong of a word, but is the QB play really that much better this year? Brister has passer efficiency of 124.4 for 208 yards per game this year. Jackson was 121.8 for 215 ypg last year. Brister is running for 50 ypg this year, while Jackson was at 20 ypg last year. Considering the defenses played and the defenses remaining, it wouldn't be shocking if Brister's numbers drop off down the stretch.
I guess you'd be arguing that the play of the WRs has dropped off from last year to this year and Brister is making up for it, but the TE play is definitely better this year. I'm not sure QB play is that much of a difference.
(This post also includes my bias of Brister not being that great against Pitt State this year and Jackson having a really nice game against Pitt State last year.)
Fairly different scheme and focus this year for elwood, though. I think the reaason people are high on Brister is that he is only a freshman and has a lot of potential.
I guess "notably" isn't that strong of a word, but is the QB play really that much better this year? Brister has passer efficiency of 124.4 for 208 yards per game this year. Jackson was 121.8 for 215 ypg last year. Brister is running for 50 ypg this year, while Jackson was at 20 ypg last year. Considering the defenses played and the defenses remaining, it wouldn't be shocking if Brister's numbers drop off down the stretch.
I guess you'd be arguing that the play of the WRs has dropped off from last year to this year and Brister is making up for it, but the TE play is definitely better this year. I'm not sure QB play is that much of a difference.
(This post also includes my bias of Brister not being that great against Pitt State this year and Jackson having a really nice game against Pitt State last year.)
Interesting when you pull up the numbers what it actually looks like.
You are most certainly onto something when you mention the receivers. Last year was a veteran group of 3 seniors, all with very high productivity. Cade has had to break in a young group while being young himself. You're correct about the TE position being better, but Heneman is essentially used as a slot receiver right now.
Najee did a great job of taking care of the ball most of the time. The only time he didn't was when he would run. He did let a couple of throws get away from him for picks too. He did a good job of distributing the ball to his talent and allowing them to make plays.
Cade bring a different element. For the most part, his picks have either been out of desperation or the fault of a receiver. The pick against UCO late in the game was the only one I remember seeing this year that was really a bad read/bad throw type pick. His pocket presence is also much better. Even when getting pressure, he rarely looks uncomfortable. He slides and moves very well away from the pressure.
Najee did a fantastic job for what was asked of him, and benefited from very good receivers. Cade's results may be similar at this point, but the upside is so much higher with him only being a freshman that it was good to get him experience sooner rather than later.
Here's a fun narative about this game that I just learned.
RS Freshman Hays DB, Keylon Kennedy is the son of former Lindenwood standout wider receiver Steven Kennedy. Steve came through the program about 4 years after me, so this makes me feel SUPER old!
Here's the LU stats from the 2004 football season, and you can see that ole' dad was the team's leading receiver! I think LU went 11-1 that year.
Tigers win 27-14 over LU. Not a pretty game but the defense played well for the most part. Offense had some good plays but still to stagnant. Mezera went out with a apparent injury and Fuller played much of the 2nd half.
7-2 and onto Northwest Missouri State... going to have to play much better to hope to win the conference and make the playoffs but a win is a win.
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