RMAC Pickem Week 12

[Beau Vine]

Adams @ SD Mines
CO Mines @ Ft Lewis
Chadron @ CSUP
Mesa @ Western
Highlands @ Black Hills

Bonus:
Central Washington @ Western Oregon
Pitt St @ NWMSU

[sportsvine]

Biggest game of the week in the RMAC and maybe even in SR4. Chadron at Pueblo. I don't really think Chadron can hang with Pueblo, and this is primarily due to being owned by them for 10+ years. But I figured I would take a look at scores against common opponents. I figure with all the common opponents they have faced, this being the last regular season game of the year, you have a big enough of a sample size that might give some clues to if Chadron can hang with Pueblo today.

Black Hills State
Chadron 31-28 Pueblo 40-14

Colorado Mines
Chadron 34-28 Pueblo 41-34

Colorado Mesa
Chadron 34-27 Pueblo 31-24

Adams State
Chadron 45-2 Pueblo 55-7

New Mexico Highlands
Chadron 37-20 Pueblo 59-13

Fort Lewis
Chadron 41-0 Pueblo 49-13

South Dakota Mines
Chadron 35-10 Pueblo 43-0

Western Colorado
Chadron 27-24 Pueblo 24-21

I now do a mean average of all those scores together.

Chadron 36-17 Pueblo 43-16

Interesting. This would suggest that Chadron SHOULD be able to hang with Pueblo. Defenses are very similar, but Pueblo's offense is a little bit better.

Also, I want to point out, Chadron has had some bad 2nd halves, allowing teams to come back and make for closer games. Against Black Hills, Chadron had a 28-7 halftime lead, and allowed Black Hills to almost come all the way back. This was before we knew Chadron was going to actually be good this year. Against Colorado Mesa, Chadron had a 31-13 lead before allowing Mesa to come back with two 4th quarter touchdowns. Against Colorado Mines, Chadron had a 17-0 lead after the 1st quarter. Colorado Mines came back but Chadron still had a late 31-20 4th quarter lead. Chadron had to hold off with some 4th quarter defense to preserve the win. Chadron's defense has been very good this year, but it would even have better stats if not allowing for some garbage points.

So, looking at all the stats and considering everything, Chadron SHOULD be able to hang with Pueblo. I would think Pueblo would end up winning maybe by a score of something like 21-17 or something like that. But, my gut tells me that Chadron will struggle to slow down Pueblo, this has happened every year for so many years in a row. Also, although Chadron's offense is better than recent years, I still don't fully trust them. They also MIGHT be without their #1 qb junior Aidan Thompson from Abilene, TX. He didn't suit up against Western last week. Without him, Chadron's offense is significantly more one-dimensional.

[sportsvine]

So, even though Chadron got dominated statistically, Chadron proved they belong on the field with Pueblo. Chadron's run D was very stout, forcing Pueblo to pass more than they normally do. Unfortunately, Chadron's pass D wasn't up to the task. Chadron's O is just too one-dimensional without their #1 qb. I am glad Chadron's going to be in the playoff (they will be, won't they?) but their nice season will come to an end next week in Ellensburg or Maryville, or Searcy.

[ccmoney8]

So, even though Chadron got dominated statistically, Chadron proved they belong on the field with Pueblo. Chadron's run D was very stout, forcing Pueblo to pass more than they normally do. Unfortunately, Chadron's pass D wasn't up to the task. Chadron's O is just too one-dimensional without their #1 qb. I am glad Chadron's going to be in the playoff (they will be, won't they?) but their nice season will come to an end next week in Ellensburg or Maryville, or Searcy.

I figure CSC, NWMSU, and UTPB have to be in over both Westerns. If that's the case then one Western would go to either CWU or CSUP. NWMSU has to go to Pitt and therefore UTPB has to go to Harding. So if Western Colorado gets the at-large, CSC would have to go to Ellensburg, but they would have to go back to Pueblo if Western Oregon gets that last spot.

I'm saying this with absolutely no mathematical certainty. Just a vague knowledge of geography and the current rankings.

[ccmoney8]

I figure CSC, NWMSU, and UTPB have to be in over both Westerns. If that's the case then one Western would go to either CWU or CSUP. NWMSU has to go to Pitt and therefore UTPB has to go to Harding. So if Western Colorado gets the at-large, CSC would have to go to Ellensburg, but they would have to go back to Pueblo if Western Oregon gets that last spot.

I'm saying this with absolutely no mathematical certainty. Just a vague knowledge of geography and the current rankings.

That being said, if I'm CSC and I want to win a playoff game, I'm hoping for Harding. CSC is statistically good against the pass, but that's because they made it this far by playing a ton of run-first teams. They've shown they can sit in man-to-man all day against a non-passing team and play 8-on-6 against the run. If Harding won't pass, I feel like that's CSC's best matchup to exploit.

[Scallywag]

Chadron definitely proved that they deserve a playoff birth, and I do not think it would be a shock to see them win a game or two. They found a way to keep the scoreboard even despite statistical dominance by Pueblo. I feel like Pueblo is good enough to make a deep run, but they have to start showing up from the start.

[sportsvine]

That being said, if I'm CSC and I want to win a playoff game, I'm hoping for Harding. CSC is statistically good against the pass, but that's because they made it this far by playing a ton of run-first teams. They've shown they can sit in man-to-man all day against a non-passing team and play 8-on-6 against the run. If Harding won't pass, I feel like that's CSC's best matchup to exploit.

I was thinking the same thing! I know it's very hard to stop Harding's run game, but I think Chadron's rush D would be an interesting matchup against them.

[Turbonium]

Pueblo's inability to run the ball consistently is likely going to lead to problems here soon. I remember some very windy playoff games in the Thunderbowl, the wind might be the only thing that can slow down Retzlaff. If he's not the best WR in D2 I would be shocked.

Unfortunate that we can expect to see some conference games in round 1. Western @ Pueblo and WOU @ CWU are all but guaranteed. Perhaps they avoid a 3rd conference game by sending Chadron to Pitt St and NWMSU to Harding.