How many MIAA teams will get into the playoffs? Who will get a bye? Who will play at home in Week 1? Who will have to travel to LSC territory? Will Humboldt or Ouachita sneak in and keep one of our teams out?

Ah, that's the great thing about Division II football. Even with a playoff system, it's hard to figure out sometimes and there's going to be somebody feeling left out of the party.

Like I told you earlier this week, as it stands now, the MIAA has four teams in the playoffs. Pitt State would host Northwest Missouri (I already have goosebumps) and Missouri Western would host Abilene Christian. Midwestern and Washburn have earned the byes, AS OF NOW.

But there's still a week of football to be played, and while Washburn and Pitt are likely in the playoffs win or lose, Missouri Western and (especially) Northwest Missouri better win Saturday if they want to be playing for a shot at the title and not in a bowl game.

Before we get too far into anything, let's take a look at this week's regional rankings (remember, top 6 get in and Earned Acccess does not apply to the GAC or GNAC so Humboldt & Ouachita would need to creep into the top 6 to get in).

1 Midwestern State 9-0 9-0 - Hosts 7-3 Northeastern State (Independent)
2 Washburn 8-1 9-1 - Hosts 7-3 Central Missouri (MIAA SR4-10)
3 Pittsburg State 8-1 8-1 - Hosts 3-6 Missouri Southern (MIAA)
4 Missouri Western State 7-2 8-2 - At 4-6 Fort Hays (MIAA)
5 Abilene Christian 7-1 7-2 - Hosts 2-7 Incarnate Word (LSC)
6 Northwest Missouri State 7-2 8-2 - Hosts 5-5 Emporia State (MIAA)
7 Ouachita Baptist 7-2 7-2 - Hosts 4-5 Henderson State (GAC)
8 Humboldt State 7-1 8-1 - Hosts 6-4 Western Oregon (GNAC) (Humboldt has lost once to UWO already this year)
9 West Texas A&M 6-3 6-3 - Hosts 1-8 Texas A&M Commerce (LSC)
10 Central Missouri 7-3 7-3 - At 9-1 Washburn (MIAA SR4-2 D2-6)

You see Central Missouri hanging around at No. 10 in the rankings, but don't get it twisted folks, UCM has no shot at making the playoffs. If you wanna hold out ohpe that Northwest, Ouachita, Humboldt and WTA&M all lose, Central beats Washburn and they leap-frog four spots, go ahead. I'm choosing to be a realist.

Let's take a look at the rest of the teams here:

Midwestern: Clinched a playoff spot. Will need to win to keep their top spot in the region. I gotta think a 10-1 Washburn team would hop them for the No. 1 seed. WORST case, if they lose, maybe they're a 3 and miss out on a bye.
Washburn: Again, they're in win or lose, but could get homefield throughout the region with a win and a Midwestern loss. If Central pulls the upset, I could see them dropping as low as 5 and out of a home playoff game.
Pitt State: Gorilla fans should root for (as hard as this seems) Central Missouri. A Washburn loss coupled with a Gorilla win in the Sonic Miners Bowl would bump them back into an opening week bye. Heck, if Midwestern loses too, why not move them back into the top seed? If they get upset, they probably drop, depending on what happens, as low as 6 - more likely 5, but still in no matter what.
Missouri Western: Griffons fans might also benefit from a Mule upset. If the Griffs can win at Hays and Washburn loses, I could see them moving ahead of Washburn into the 3-seed in the region. If they lose to the Tigers though, it gets interesting. You gotta think either Ouachita or Humboldt would sure like to get in with two or one losses, respectively, over a three-loss Western team.
Abilene Christian: Abilene should be pulling for Hays. If Western loses, it saves them a trip to St. Joe. A loss will most likely knock the Wildcats out, but against a 2-7 Incarnate team at home, I don't see that happening.
Northwest Missouri: At No. 6, calling their game with Emporia a must-win would be an understatement. The Bearcats will likely only secure a home game in Week 1 if they win and MoWest and ACU both lose.
Ouachita Baptist: Boy, earned access sure would be nice for GAC fans here, huh? I'll take it. Give me my MIAA teams any day. A loss by MoWest, ACU or Northwest might just get them in, so they're alive.
Humboldt State: Plain and simple. To get into the playoffs out of the GNAC, you pretty much need to go perfect. It didn't happen. Not much of a chance for Humboldt here, but I won't rule them out as confidently as I would UCM.
West Texas A&M: Much like Central Missouri, West Texas doesn't have any bad losses; They just lack any great wins. An opening week loss to still-unbeaten CSU-Pueblo has come back to haunt them. I think we'll be seeing the Buffs in the Kanza Bowl

That makes for an excellent segway, doesn't it. So who might West Texas be facing in said Kanza Bowl? I've spoken about this ad nauseum in recent blogs, but I'll go ahead and give you the quick rundown. If any of the four MIAA teams currently in the playoffs drops out - most likely Northwest or MoWest - they'll get to pick either the Kanza (Topeka, KS) or the Mineral Water (Excelsior Springs, MO). Central Missouri gets the leftover. If both - Northwest and MoWest - miss out on the playoffs, the Griffs pick with the Bearcats taking the seconds.

But, and I hope this is what happens, if we get all four in, it opens up some options. Read my last blog for the complete breakdown, but bottom line, Central gets to choose, and we could then see Emporia or Hays get the other bowl, or we MIGHT even see a team outside the MIAA take our spot in the Mineral Water Bowl.

Now that we've broken down all the ifs, ands or buts, let's get down to what is actually going to happen.

I'm going to play it safe and say all the non-MIAA SR4 teams mentioned here win on Saturday, thus putting the pressure on us to hold up our end of the bargain.

Let's start at the top and work our way down.

Central Missouri (7-3, 5-3) at No. 6 Washburn (9-1, 7-1)
Saturday, Nov. 12; 1 p.m.
Yager Stadium; Topeka, KS

Last year when these two teams met, there was 100 points scored and about 7,000 yards of total offense. I think it's safe to say that's not going to happen this year. Both teams can certainly put up some points, but I think both defenses are improved as well (Washburn by almost six points a game, UCM by more than three per contest).

So set the over under at 91? Ha, it's possible, but I think last week proved the Ichabod defense is playing at its peak right now. I think it's more likely that Washburn holds up their half and drops 40+, but I"m not even sure that's going to happen.

I'll tell you right now, I think Washburn wins this game. They have a lot riding on this game and (just announced Friday) Harlon Hill candidate Dane Simoneau is too good to let this opportunity slip by. I'd just like to see how good he could be, and the numbers he could put up, if he didn't go through such bad streaks. It happened agains early last week at Pitt and was the only reason the Gorillas were even in the game at halftime.

A complete game out of Simoneau and this game isn't close. A cold streak and Central makes it fun.

Prediction: Washburn 37 Central Missouri 23

Missouri Southern (3-6, 2-6) at No. 8 Pittsburg State (9-1, 7-1)
Saturday, Nov. 12; 2 p.m.
Carnie Smith Stadium; Pittsburg, KS
MIAA TV

Speaking candidly after the game last week, Pitt coach Tim Beck said he wanted his guys to feel bad about themselves for a day or two before moving on to this game. I can appreciate that. They deserved it. Now, can they move on?

A Gorilla run game that struggled last week against Washburn now faces the top-ranked rush defense in the conference and senior Lions quarterback Collin Howard has the conference's top receiver (catch-wise) and a rising star at running back in Steven Sumpter.

This game is obviously big for Pitt who wants to lock up a home game and maybe sneak back into a bye, and while Southern isn't really playing for anything, a Southern win does throw a kink into the bowl picture. If the Lions win and Emporia and Hays lose, then they all finish 3-6 in the conference, and if we get four teams into the playoffs and Central picks the Mineral Water Bowl, the Kanza Bowl could then pick between the rest of them. If all three lose, Hays edges Emporia because of head to head, even with a worse overall record. But if all three end up at 3-6 in conference, I'd think Emporia (5-6) would be a more attractive option than Hays (4-7) or Southern (4-6).

Back to this game, Pitt just needs to avoid mistakes that plagued them last week. Hopefully they practiced catching kickoffs. You gotta think even if Southern's D plays up to par, Pitt still has what it takes to win this game pretty easily.

Prediction: Pittsburg State 31 Missouri Southern 17

No. 20 Missouri Western (8-2, 6-2) at Fort Hays State (4-6, 3-5)
Saturday, Nov. 12; 2 p.m.
Lewis Field; Hays, KS

I won't lie to you. I have this sneaky suspcion - scratch that, I'm going to call it a fear - that somebody slips up and we don't get our four teams into the playoffs. Missouri Western is the only contender (in the whole region actually) playing on the road this week, so will it be the Griffons?

I honestly thought it was possible - heck, I still believe anything is POSSIBLE - until I realized the chopiness of the Tigers this year, particularly their lackluster performance against the top teams in the conference. The closest they've come is a 21-point defeat against Pitt at home on Oct. 8.

And then you gotta think about Missouri Western. Is there anybody as hot as t hem right now in the entire country? Okay, I'll give you the few unbeatens probably have an edge there, and Grand Valley is winners of six straight after a 1-3 start, but man, didn't we ALL think MoWest would be sitting with at LEAST three losses at this point after a 2-2 start?

A lot of that has been fueled by the constant improvements of Travis Partridge. I gave him a hard time earlier this year, but boy, has he shut me up. I look forward to watching this kid play for two more years and don't forget, he's not finished with this year.

You throw the conference's best running back (Michael Hill) and arguably the nation's best defensive player (David Bass), and I think Western steamrolls its way into the playoffs.

Prediction: Missouri Western 54 Fort Hays 20

Emporia State (5-5, 3-5) at No. 9 Northwest Missouri (8-2, 6-2)
Saturday, Nov. 12; 1 p.m.
Bearcat Stadium; Maryville, MO

A must-win for the Bearcats and a must-lose for the Hornets? Sort of, but nobody at Emporia would be upset with pulling the upset over Northwest here.

An ESU win here probably knocks Northwest out of the playoffs, thus eliminating the Hornets from bowl talks. In a perfect world for Emporia fans, they win and somehow the Bearcats still sneak in, then all this 'above-.500 talk' I've been spatting about the last few weeks doesn't come into play.

So which will it be? The Bearcats at home, against a lesser team (though really not by all that much) with their season on the line... Yeah, I like Northwest in this one.

The Bearcats bounced back nicely after their first loss of the season at a Central team with the most dangerous QB-WR combo in the conference, so I think the friendly confines of Bearcat Stadium will be good to them here.

Watch out though. Emporia has won three in a row and they're scoring almost 50 points a game in doing so. The Hornets made this game interesting last year until a couple of late inteceptions sealed it for the Bearcats, and I think we'll see another close one, but count on Northwest making its eighth consecutive trip to the playoffs.

Prediction: Northwest Missouri 38 Emporia State 30

Truman State (3-7, 2-7) at Southwest Baptist (6-4, Independent)
Saturday, Nov. 12; 1:30 p.m.
Plaster Stadium; Bolivar, MO

Okay, so you might think this game has absolutely no bearing on anything, but you might be wrong. Southwest wants into the Mineral Water Bowl if the MIAA can't give it a winning team, and it might just happen, though at 6-5 and losers of four straight to end the season, I think a 5-6 Emporia team (in the MIAA so as to not cut any cords with conference big-wigs) looks just as attractive.

But with a chance to pull a 7-4 in-state team, that isn't REALLY going outside the conference (SBU is MIAA in everything except football and rejoins the league next year), could the Mineral Water go with Baptist?

It doesn't matter. They're not going to win. The downward spiral will continue as Truman is going to ride its "hey, we just played Lincoln!" momentum and give the 'other' Bearcats another loss to a future conference opponent.

Prediction: Truman State 30 Southwest Baptist 28

So you might look at these predictions and say "Aaron, you are so clearly bias towards the MIAA it's pathetic," in which case I would say "YUP!"

This is not only what I think will happen, but really what I WANT to happen as I want four teams in the playoffs and I want MIAA teams playing in both bowl games. Sue me. I'm the MIAA blogger, not the LSC, GAC, GNAC or Independent. And you better believe come playoff time, I'm going to be pulling for my MIAA teams when they face non-conference opponents. When we face each other, I stay neutral, but I'll root for an MIAA team ANY DAY OF THE WEEK, no matter who it is.

Okay, so with that being said, how does all of this play out. Well if it goes like I said, I think everything stays the same. Our top six now is the playoff field, so:

Northwest heads to Pitt for a chance to play at Washburn and...
Abilene goes to Western for a chance to play at Midwestern State...

So who does Central pick? It'd be a two-hour trip to Topeka to face West Texas A&M, and it'd be a one-hour trip to Excelsior Springs to play either St. Cloud, Minnesota State or Minnesota Duluth (all three are on the playoff bubble, but since MSU & UMD play each other, at least one is likely to be left out).

Central played WTA&M last year in the playoffs, knocking them off 55-35 in a game that wasn't even that close. The Mineral Water Bowl offers a shorter trip for fans and some fresh blood to taste, so purely guessing here, I'll say UCM takes the MWB.

With the way I predicted things, that leaves Fort Hays State, at 4-7, with the Kanza Bowl bid. Congratulations? Hey, take it where you can get it and however it comes, right?

What do YOU think will happen this week? Surely not EVERYTHING is going to line up perfectly for the MIAA like I predict, right? Leave me a comment below, email me at [email protected], @ me on Twitter @miAARONd2 or message/friend me at Facebook.com/apheintz to tell me your predictions.

I had planned to go to Washburn-Central this week, but I think it will be much more fun to follow all the action, in the MIAA and across the nation, at home.

Go MIAA.