Ok....I've given the last week a hard look, while also reviewing what's ahead for those in the mix in the Regional Rankings (SR3).

I got mixed thoughts..

Mankato and Duluth - Win and ya don't have to worry about a thing. I think you both do, so I'm moving on here.

Here is SR3, and lets proceed with the confusion..



(StateU, this is me stealing your graphic....thanks)

Quick thoughts here..

#1 NWMSU - played a super tough schedule, including beating the #3 team in another region in their opener (Saginaw Valley State) and giving them their only blemish. The Bearcats having such a strong schedule benefits the other MIAA teams that play them, as the SOS is a few layers deep.

#3 Hendo State - they will be the only non-NSIC/MIAA team that makes the field of 6. With their competition being lower overall (true SOS), they will likely be a home underdog in W1 of the playoffs.

In looking at the next few teams it's important to see how the top end of the MIAA looks.
NWMSU 10-0
Emporia State 8-1 (lost to NWMSU 48-21)
Pittsburg State 9-1 (lost to NWMSU 24-15)
Missouri Western 8-2
Washburn 8-2

The top end of the MIAA looks more rich than the NSIC this season, just at a snapshot view. 5 teams with 8 wins or more. Currently in the NSIC you have 10-0, 9-1, 9-1, and then it drops off to 6-4, etc. I'm just making an observation.

#5 Pittsburg State and #6 Emporia State - The Gorillas clearly look like the better team than Emporia. They play NWMSU to a tight game while Emporia gets blasted, and against another top conference foe (Missouri Western) Pitt handles them 34-14, while Emporia wins 35-30. This is once again why I say that margin of victory (with a cap) should be part of this playoff equation if you are looking to determine who are the most deserving teams in the country/region.

Pitt is at Missouri Southern (6-3), while Emporia hosts Washburn (8-2). If both of them win, they will also be 1-loss teams just like SCSU. Then you have 3 teams at the end of the line with 1 loss that are all deserving, but given the look of the top 5 in the MIAA, I could see a better case being made for those teams than for the Huskies. As a NSIC fan, this all frustrates me. (this goes back to getting the best 24 teams into the field)

....that said, I think that Emporia doesn't get the job done vs Washburn and gets eliminated from the conversation. I think Pitt is on level footing as a team with Duluth (in terms of ability) and will get the job done in the final week of the season.

My prediction for the Region is..
1. NWMSU
2. MSU-Mankato
3. Hendo State
4. Pitt State (I think they get a bump and move ahead of Duluth)
5. UMD
6. SCSU

If so....it would be SCSU at Hendo State, UMD at Pitt State. Those would make for some great match-ups, but we can cross that bridge come Sunday.


As for the Mineral Water Bowl..

If SMSU wins, they rep the NSIC in that game. Considering Winona went last year, I just don't see the bowl committee opting for them again when they know that SMSU beat Winona and also would be thirsty for such an opportunity along with their fans....big time.

If both lose and USF and Mary win, you would have 5 teams with a 6-5 record in the conference. What the..
I have no idea how that would shake out, so I'm not even going to try and speculate.

My guess is that we will be looking at a MWB with SMSU vs Emporia State.

If Emporia State wins this Saturday (along with Pitt), I have a bad feeling that SCSU would miss out on the big dance and all the sudden would be looking at the MWB. A lot of teams in the conference would love to find themselves in that football game as this season comes to an end....SCSU isn't one of them. Being 7-4 and getting a bowl invite is much different than being 10-1 and being left out of the playoffs and accepting a consolation prize. Here's to hoping that SCSU makes the dance and that the letdown doesn't take place..