Right after the SCSU loss to Duluth earlier this year I mentioned that I figured that 3 teams would end up in the playoffs due to how things were shaping up in the conference, and I was pleased to see that did turn out that way. If a 1-loss SCSU team wouldn't have made the dance, it would have really have made people question this current format (more than they already do).

With 3 NSIC teams making the dance you'd think that maybe one of the teams wasn't so strong and scraped in. I can't say that I see any of the Northern Sun playoff teams in this way. All are strong in their own way and if any of them were in another region, they'd be poised for a deep run. As things are, the 3 could end up having to knock heads if things went right. Problem is, the MIAA has some strong teams in the region as well. This region is really really strong.

So let's look at the games..


#6 St. Cloud State (10-1) at #3 Henderson State (11-0)
Noon - Arkadelphia, AR


St. Cloud travels about 900 miles South to Arkansas to meet the Reddies. On paper this should be a game should an offensive explosion and the weather should be condusive to throwing the ball..which both teams prefer. HSU averages 400 yards a game in the air. Geez. SCSU is more balanced but Klaphake can brake it open for 400 yards himself.

SCSU Offense = 39ppg
SCSU Defense = 16ppg

HSU Offense = 54ppg
HSU Defense = 22ppg

SCSU has faced better competition overall, and is accustom to playing a more physical style of football. I think that serves them well here. I'm not fully buying into their defensive numbers as the North just wasn't very threatening this season, but I still feel safe in saying they are the better defensive team in this one.

Kevin Rodgers is one of the top players in the country and puts up some huge yards in the passing game. However, losing a top target in the middle of the year hurts him.

HSU giving up 22ppg is going to hurt them in this one as the Huskies offense will be ready to put up a big number.

With SCSU having long travels in front of them, HSU clearly will have a 7-10 point advantage sleeping in their own beds. I think SCSU overcomes that and mixes things up enough to keep HSU guessing, while getting enough stops to win the day. Klaphake and Rodgers both have a big day, but I got the Huskies winning 45-38.



#5 Emporia State (9-1) at #4 Minnesota State-Duluth (10-1)
1pm - Duluth, MN


Here is some things the immediately come to mind with this football game..

Emporia State QB Brent Wilson goes down with a broken collarbone. Needless to say, this is a huge injury and greatly impacts the ability for the Hornets to compete in this one.

Duluth is like a Hummer while Emporia is more like a sports car....that now has a blown turbo.

The high temp for this game will be in the teens (without mentioning the wind off the lake), and while there are some exceptions of a team from the South beating a team from the North in the cold weather, it's not typical. Duluth has looked like a machine for much of this year. A team who couldn't care less about headlines or individual awards. Cold weather and wind is just much better weather for running the football and playing physical football, and not so much for throwing the ball. Duluth wants to run, Emporia to throw.

Duluth is accustom to playoff football and the expectation of a deep playoff run. Emporia is thrilled to be here.

ESU Offense = 43ppg
ESU Defense = 25ppg

UMD Offense = 42ppg
UMD Defense = 15ppg

Something that's improved with Bulldogs that hasn't gotten a ton of ink is their improved defense. Last year they were giving up 20ppg going into the playoffs while this year they are 5 points less per contest. The UMD defense is a rough bunch who can meet at the quarterback. I think this occurs on Saturday.

I'm probably way off but I really don't see how this game is remotely close. I think that Duluth plays this game like business as usual. I think they steamroll with their running game, hit a few passes in play action, and also get some big plays in the return game on their way to a route. Emporia bringing an inexperienced QB into this situation is difficult to put it lightly.

I like Duluth getting up big in this one and to ground and pound from there. I got UMD rolling 51-17 on Saturday.