This is the round where you realize that this region is really cannibalizing, with some of the best teams in the country leaving the dance prematurely. The fact that either UMD (#5 overall) or NWMSU (#2 overall) will be done for the year in the round of 16, it's just really unfortunate. This is the part of D2 playoffs that I just don't care for. It's a fantastic match-up with a lot of history behind it, I just wish it wasn't so darn early.

But....since the game is being played, let's look inside it and the battle for the Traveling Training Kit, between SCSU and MSU-Mankato.


#4 UMD at #1 NWMSU, Noon

Both teams have championship pedigree and they are both looked at as the gold standard when it comes to D2 football.

UMD Offense = 43ppg
UMD Defense = 15ppg

NWMSU Offense = 46ppg
NWMSU Defense = 16ppg

After taking a deep look into both teams, here's my thoughts on the game..

On paper these teams look very evenly matched, but they got this far via two different paths. In terms of schedule, NWMSU clearly played the toughest in the country. Duluth, no fault of their own, played the in the North division of the NSIC and wasn't tested very often. Looking at things critically, the Bearcats are far more battle tested overall and have played in more tight games.

Don't think that means that the Bulldogs are some type of underdog. It's hard to call Duluth an underdog with the amount of success they've had in the modern era of D2 football.

NWMSU is equally good at stopping the run as Duluth is, with both teams allowing less than 3 yards to carry. Both defenses also know how to get to the passer, and some. Overall the Bearcats secondary appears more athletic than the Bulldogs, but both have given up big plays occasionally in the passing game.

Here is where the problem comes up for UMD. While both teams can run the ball well (Duluth better than just about anyone around), NWMSU can throw the ball a heckuva lot better and are very efficient in doing so. UMD's passing game is seemingly opportunistic, based on the success of the battering ram attack to set up shots for QB Drew Bauer. Drew is slippery runner, but just isn't the passer that NW's Trevor Adams is. Adams (from Permian HS in Odessa, TX....think Friday Night Lights....yes, that high school), he's thrown 21 touchdowns this year with just 3 picks, with a 74% completion rate.

Adams splits duties with the more run-based Brady Bolles, and they involve a lot of targets..9 guys with 10 receptions of more. Bolles can throw the ball as well, he's not only a running QB..in the same way Adams will occasionally tuck it away himself in the red zone.

Wideouts Reuben Thomas and Bryce Young (amongst others) can stretch the field, both being big play pass-catchers. More than any other factor in this game, I'd be a bit fearful of NW beating Duluth over the top or getting some difference-making chunk plays through the air. At the skill positions they have the athletic advantage. This will put a needed emphasis on the front 7 of Duluth to get to the passer off the edges and to keep the running game of the Bearcats intact.

If NWMSU can run the ball against UMD, I really don't see how the Bulldogs will have a change in this one. That said, I expect Duluth to be the most smashmouth team that NWMSU has seen this season, and for the Cats running game to not be a big factor in this one due to Colby Ring, Nate Zuk and company getting the better of the battle upfront. If Duluth can win that battle upfront and get to the quarterback, they can win this game.

On the other side of the ball I think Duluth will need to find a way to get some big plays in the passing game. Duluth will have some nice drives and break some runs in this one, but I think that NW will defend their running game good enough that they'll need a bit more.

Guys like Aaron Roth and Zach Zweifel will need to find a way to make some plays down field in the passing game. Roth can be a very dangerous player for UMD, and I think he will need to make a big play in this one. This might be an optimistic proposition given the Dixon twins in the secondary for NWMSU and their ability to make plays on the ball. I think UMD can find some success outside of their conventional ground and pound, but I think it might have to come in the way of some misdirection or counter-reverse type plays, using the NW pursuit against themselves a bit.

The NWMSU special teams has been pretty good, while I haven't been terribly impressed with the Bulldogs kicking game..but both of these teams have such sound execution that I don't see things like blocked punts occurring in this one.

At the end of the day I guess that I feel that the defenses almost cancel each other out but that the Bearcats offense is far more complete and seemingly more potent in a game where yardage might not be plentiful. If UMD could throw the ball better, I'd really have this game as a coin flip contest. While I will certainly be cheering on the Bulldogs to represent the NSIC, I think that in this specific contest the Bearcats win at home 34-21.





#6 St. Cloud State at #2 Minnesota State-Mankato, Noon

All of us NSIC fans get to see the match-up that we didn't get during the regular season. The #3 team in the conference versus the #1 team in the conference. Last years game was very tight, with Mankato winning up at St. Cloud. SCSU started to spiral last year as a result of a poor start, while Kato went to the semis and ended up looking like the 2nd best team in the country overall.

Fast-forward to 2013, SCSU looks far more sharp this year..with their only loss to a team that's top 5 in the nation (UMD), at their place. That was a close game at half, and then things went very south for SCSU in the second half on a rainy-messy day.

SCSU Offense = 40ppg
SCSU Defense = 18ppg

MSU-Mankato Offense = 44ppg
MSU-Mankato Defense = 15ppg

I think that if SCSU hadn't give up 600 yards of offense to HSU last week, along with 35 points, that people would be looking at this game a little bit differently.

The SCSU defense is very good and causing turnovers and if they can find a way to turn-over the Mavs, they would do something that few teams have. That's the challenge that the Huskies have, the Mavs typically play pretty clean and safe football. Losing the best defensive back in the conference (ball-hawking Jack Moro) at the end of the regular season with a broken collarbone is a tough blow. SCSU has a solid decent overall, but has given up a fair amount of points to some of the better offenses they've faced this year.

Certainly QB Jon Wolf for Kato won't make things any easier. The Mavs could be the most physical team on the D2 landscape, while also being all man and a yard wide upfront. SCSU is quick to the ball, but I think they will have some real challenges upfront keeping the Mavs front marching the ball down the field. I really like the way the Mavs can mix things up with play-action passes and with Dennis Carter they have a Desmond Howard-like player who could surely put up monster numbers if they chose to lean on him more often. That's just not who this Mavs offense is trying to be though.

Don't get me wrong, I think Klaphake and company will be able to put up points and give the Mavs some problems. Klaphake is a really good small college quarterback and can hurt ya both with his feet and his arm. The problem that I see him facing will be the immense pass rush from the Mavs. Klaphake will need to escape the rush and be able to hit targets down the field, while likely on the run. I think he can, but with the way Mankato can shut down the run, Klaphake might be running for his life for a lot of the game. Certainly if SCSU can protect their passer, it could really change this game. Klaphake can throw for a ton of yards if you let him.

I have the Mavs special teams as better than what I've seen from SCSU. The SCSU kicking game seems a bit challenged, and the Mavs have one of the best kickers in D2.

Having seen of these teams a few times this year (mostly online), I'm feeling fairly confident that Mankato's defense is the difference in this one, along with Wolf's ability to make plays. If Klaphake can matchup Wolf in play-making, they can stick around in this game. His abilities give the Huskies a punchers chance. However, I like the Mavs to have their way in this one. MSU-Mankato 31-14.


I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving. I'm looking forward to reflecting on the good things in life, while doing what I'm best at....eating to the point of being uncomfortable and watching football.